July 13, 2012

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MARKET OVERVIEW

Index
DJIA NASDAQ RUSSELL 2000 S&P 500

started week
12772.02 2934.49 805.67 1354.66

Thursday Close
12573.3 2866.19 789.62 1334.76

3 day change
-198.72 -68.3 -16.05 -19.9

3 day change %
-1.56% -2.33% -1.99% -1.47%

ytd
2.91% 10.02% 6.57% 6.14%

Summary of VE Stock Universe

Stocks Undervalued Stocks Overvalued Stocks Undervalued by 20% Stocks Overvalued by 20% 71.97% 28.03% 35.40% 10.07%

SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector
Aerospace Auto-Tires-Trucks Basic Materials Business Services Computer and Technology Construction Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Finance Industrial Products Medical Multi-Sector Conglomerates Oils-Energy Retail-Wholesale Transportation Utilities

Change
-0.44% -0.96% -0.61% -0.81% -0.82% 0.63% -0.90% -0.92% -0.29% -1.05% -0.20% -0.78% -0.87% -0.37% -0.57% -0.35%

MTD
-0.98% -4.38% -2.45% -2.46% -2.97% 1.27% 3.59% -1.03% 0.23% -1.25% 1.13% -0.72% 0.05% 0.21% -1.43% 0.72%

YTD
-0.79% -2.49% -5.63% 3.62% 3.73% 84.09% 11.75% 9.28% 14.70% -0.92% 15.18% 7.17% -10.39% 8.48% 4.82% -0.28%

Valuation
1.97% undervalued 19.64% undervalued 16.73% undervalued 3.95% undervalued 4.95% undervalued 9.74% undervalued 7.09% undervalued 10.72% overvalued 3.52% overvalued 6.26% undervalued 8.09% overvalued 2.86% undervalued 14.29% undervalued 3.65% overvalued 1.87% undervalued 10.67% overvalued

Last 12-M Return

-17.05% -24.59% -37.36% -6.29% -14.54% -4.28% -6.30% -6.48% -1.23% -17.71% -9.93% -9.51% -27.98% -0.73% -17.47% -5.22%

P/E Ratio
30.47 17 23.28 24.22 38.9 55.84 28.4 19.27 23.36 25.94 39.08 15.41 28.52 28.84 23.09 18.96

Sector TalkConstruction
Below, we present the latest data on leading Construction Stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.

Top-Five Construction Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
SHW KBR FWLT FLR CBI

Name
SHERWIN WILLIAM KBR INC FOSTER WHELR AG FLUOR CORP-NEW CHICAGO BRIDGE

Mkt Price
128.85 23.38 15.61 46.09 36.26

Valuation(%)
10.82 -41.02 -55.12 -27.65 -24.09

Last 12-M Retn(%)

56.37 -36.03 -42.76 -27.33 -4.45

Top-Five Construction Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
SHW URI WY CBI WOSYY

Name
SHERWIN WILLIAM UTD RENTALS INC WEYERHAEUSER CO CHICAGO BRIDGE WOLSELEY -ADR

Mkt Price
128.85 33.53 22.78 36.26 3.63

Valuation(%)
10.82 -1.16 -15.01 -24.09 n/a

Last 12-M Retn(%)

56.37 36.19 7.45 -4.45 22.6

Top-Five Construction Sector Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker
CBI URI THO KBR ICA

Name
CHICAGO BRIDGE UTD RENTALS INC THOR INDS INC KBR INC EMPRESAS ICA

Mkt Price
36.26 33.53 27.17 23.38 7.09

Valuation(%)
-24.09 -1.16 -28.92 -41.02 -75

Last 12-M Retn(%)

-4.45 36.19 0 -36.03 -18.32

Top-Five Construction Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker
TPC LEN MTH IBI HW

Name
TUTOR PERINI CP LENNAR CORP -A MERITAGE HOMES INTERLINE BRAND HEADWATERS INC

Mkt Price
12.78 31.06 35.44 25.23 5.77

Valuation(%)
300 27.12 24.88 18.33 15.57

Last 12-M Retn(%)

-27.55 73.33 53.29 40.17 89.8

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This week's free download is our report on Lennar Corp (LEN). Lennar Corp is one of the nation's leading builders of quality homes for all generations, building affordable, move-up and retirement homes. Under the Lennar Family of Builders banner, the Company includes the following brand names: Lennar Homes, U.S. Home, Greystone Homes, Village Builders, Renaissance Homes, Orrin Thompson Homes, Lundgren Bros., Winncrest Homes, Sunstar Communities, Don Galloway Homes, Patriot Homes, NuHome, Barry Andrews Homes, Concord Homes, Summit Homes, Cambridge Homes, Seppala Homes, Genesee and Rutenberg Homes.

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Suttmeier Says
--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier
If you have any comments or questions, send them to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com Treasury Yields 10-Year--((1.478) Monthly, semiannual, quarterly and annual value level are 1.568, 1.853, 1.869 and 2.502 with daily, weekly and semiannual risky levels at 1.421, 1.381 and 1.389. The continued flight to quality has this yield near its all time low set on June 1st at 1.439. Commodities and Forex Comex Gold--($1572.3) My annual value level is $1388.4 with annual and monthly pivots at $1575.8 and $1578.3, and weekly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at $1606.9, $1643.3, $1702.5 and $1805.8. The 50-day / 200-day SMAs: $1592.9 / $1660.3. My annual pivot at $1575.8 continues to be the line in the sand between those betting that the gold bubble will re-inflate and those that expect weakness to my annual value level at $1388.4. Nymex Crude Oil ($85.72) Semiannual and weekly value levels are $76.71 and $74.64 with the October 4th low at $74.95, with a daily pivot at $86.20, and monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at $100.47, $103.58 and $107.63. Another annual risky level is $117.00. Economic weakness favors lower crude oil prices, while potential supply disruptions from Iran and a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico builds a floor. Oil is balanced between its 200-week simple moving average at $80.35 and the 50-day simple moving average at $87.84. The Euro (1.2202) Monthly, weekly, daily and semiannual value levels are 1.2168, 1.2117, 1.2024 and 1.1078 with semiannual, annual and quarterly risky levels at 1.2917, 1.4239 and 1.4583. The euro is under pressure due to the European debt crisis.

Major Indices Daily Dow: (12,573) Weekly, annual and semiannual value levels are 12,364, 12,312 and 10,738 with a daily pivot at 12,592, and monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 13,473, 14,032 and 14,493. Below the 50-day simple moving average at 12,642 is risk to the 200-day at 12,451. S&P 500 (1334.8) Weekly and semiannual value levels are 1305.7 and 1059.7 with daily, annual, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 1341.5, 1363.2, 1418.6, 1539.8 and 1562.9. A close below the 50-day simple moving average at 1334.6 is risk to the 200-day at 1306.6. NASDAQ (2866) Weekly, annual and semiannual value levels are 2799, 2698 and 2527 with daily, monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 2908, 3058, 3232 and 3348. Below the 50-day simple moving average at 2881 is risk to the 200-day at 2809. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2545) Weekly, annual and semiannual value levels are 2500, 2300 and 2239 with an annual pivot at 2603, and daily, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 2582, 2729 and 2991. Below the 50-day simple moving average at 2572 is risk to the 200-day at 2488. Dow Transports (5078) Weekly and semiannual value levels are 5017, 4449 and 4129 with daily, monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 5113, 5422, 5861, 6111 and 6044. The all time high is 5627.85 set on July 11, 2011. Below the 50-day simple moving average at 5097 is risk to the 200- day at 5042. Russell 2000 (789.62) Weekly and semiannual value levels are 753.44 and 686.25 with daily, monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 806.50, 834.07, 836.15 and 933.42. The all time high is 868.57 set on May 2, 2011. The small cap index is above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at 776.71 and 768.70. The SOX (353.69) Weekly and semiannual value levels are 350.70 and 326.30 with daily, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 356.39, 405.11 and 450.28. The 2011 high is 474.33 set on February 18, 2011. The SOX is already below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at 376.85 and 390.76.

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