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College of Science Process epartment of Statistics D Control Statistical

Statistical Process Control (SPC) can be thought of as the application of statistical methods for the purposes of quality control and improvement. Quality Improvement is perhaps foremost among all areas in business for application of statistical methods.

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College of Science Control Charts: RecognizingDepartmentVariation Sources of of Statistics


Why Use a Control Chart?
To monitor, control, and improve process performance over time by studying variation and its source.

What Does a Control Chart Do?


Focuses attention on detecting and monitoring process variation over time; Distinguishes special from common causes of variation, as a guide to local or management action; Serves as a tool for ongoing control of a process; Helps improve a process to perform consistently and predictably for higher quality, lower cost, and higher effective capacity; Provides a common language for discussing process performance.

Use of Statistics

Control harts: College ofCScienceRecognizing Sources ofof Statistics Department Variation


How Do I Use Control Charts?
There are many types of control charts. The control charts that you or your team decides to use should be determined by the type of data that you have. Use the following tree diagram to determine which chart will best fit your situation. Only the most common types of charts are addressed.

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Department of Statistics

Control Chart Selection: Variable Data


Measured & Plotted on a Continuous Scale such as Time, Temperature, Cost, Figures.

n=1

2<n<9 median

n is small 3<n<5

n is large n > 10

X & Rm

X&R

X&R

X&S

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College of Science

Department of Statistics

Control Chart Selection: Attribute Data


Counted or Plotted as Discrete Events Such as Shipping Errors, Waste or Absenteeism.

Defect or Nonconformity Data


Variable Sample Size

Defective Data

Constant Sample Size

Constant n > 50

Variable n > 50

c chart

u chart

p or np chart

p chart

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College of Science

Department of Statistics

Control Chart Construction


1. 2. Select the process to be charted; Determine sampling method and plan;
1. 2. 3. How large a sample needs to be selected? Balance the time and cost to collect a sample with the amount of information you will gather. As much as possible, obtain the samples under the same technical conditions: the same machine, operator, lot, and so on. Frequency of sampling will depend on whether you are able to discern patterns in the data. Consider hourly, daily, shifts, monthly, annually, lots, and so on. Once the process is in control, you might consider reducing the frequency with which you sample. Generally, collect 20-25 groups of samples before calculating the statistics and control limits. Consider using historical data to establish a performance baseline.

4. 5.

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Department of Statistics

Initiate data collection: Run the process untouched, and gather sampled data. Record data on an appropriate Control Chart sheet or other graph paper. Include any unusual events that occur. Calculate the appropriate statistics and control limits: Use the appropriate formulas. Construct the control chart(s) and plot the data.

Control Chart Construction

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College of Science

Department of Statistics

Control Chart Interpretation:

Time, Production & Spatial Analysis An event taken in isolation or a group of items each selected from a process during the same (brief) time span can generally provide information about process performance ONLY during that brief span.

Unless process performance is static through time this will be true. Dynamic processes vary through time.

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College of Science

Department of Statistics

Control Chart Interpretation:

Time, Production & Spatial Analysis If a process varies through time, it is often useful to know how the process varies so that it can be controlled or guided in its behavior. videotaping the process - in some sense, the process has a life of its own and we want to nurture that life.

This requires monitoring through time, similar to

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College of Science

Department of Statistics

Control Chart Interpretation:


Persistence Through Time A process can be characterized by:
Examining its behavior during a sufficiently brief interlude of time Examining its behavior across a greater expanse of time.

Stable process: one which performs with a high degree of consistency at an essentially constant level for an extended period of time
In-control

A process that is not stable is referred to as being in an out-ofcontrol state

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College of Science
QU ST HO O S E N R
L a in ed g
A

Department of Statistics
PR G A O R M
* * * * *
US L 2 W US 1 L C L LS 1 L LS L 2 W L L C

In o tio &D n va n esig w Q a n ith u lity &T a s U L em C

* * * * * * *

B C

* C
B C

* *

C trol C arts: C on h olors U sed

Use of Statistics

Control cience College of SChart Interpretation:Statistics Department of


Pattern Analysis Tests (PATs)
PAT 1: One point plots beyond zone A on either side of the mean PAT 2: Nine points in a row plot on the same side of the mean PAT 3: Six consecutive points are strictly increasing or strictly decreasing PAT 4: Fourteen consecutive points that alternate up and down PAT 5: Two out of three consecutive points plot in zone A or beyond, and all three points plot on the same side of the mean. PAT 6: Four out of five consecutive points plot in zone B or beyond, and all five points plot on the same side of the mean.

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Department of Statistics

Control Chart Interpretation:


Pattern Analysis Tests
PAT 7: Fifteen consecutive points plot in zones C, spanning both sides of the mean. PAT 8: Eight consecutive points plot at more than one standard deviation away from the mean with some smaller than the mean and some larger than the mean.

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Department of Statistics

Control Chart Interpretation:


Monitoring & Improving Processes

The performance of every process will be composed of two primary components:


Controlled or guided performance which is predictable in both an instantaneous and long-term sense Uncontrolled variation
Special or assignable causes Common causes

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Department of Statistics

Control Chart Interpretation:


Monitoring & Improving Processes

True process improvement is typically a result of either:


Breakthrough thinking Efforts to identify and reduce or eliminate common causes of variation; methodical quantitatively oriented tools which monitor a process over time --- the approach taken generally by control charts.

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Department of Statistics

Control Chart Interpretation


The vertical axis coordinate of a point plotted on the chart corresponding to the value of an appropriate PPM and the horizontal axis coordinate of a point plotted on the chart corresponding to the time in sequence at which the observation was made with the time between observations divided into equal increments.

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Department of Statistics

P Charts for the Process Proportion


Based on m preliminary samples from the process. While the number of items, ni, may vary from sample to sample, it is customary for each of the samples in a given application to include the same number of items, n. For the ith of these m samples, let number of defective units in the sample Then the proportion defective for the ith sample is:

Yi =

^i = Yi / ni p

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Department of Statistics

Control Chart Interpretation


Center line (CL) positioned at the estimated mean Upper and lower one standard deviation lines (U1SL and L1SL) positioned one standard deviation above and below the mean. Upper and lower two standard deviation warning lines (U2SWL and L2SWL) positioned at two standard deviations above and below the mean. Upper and lower control lines (UCL and LCL) positioned at three standard deviations above and below the mean.

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Department of Statistics

P Charts for the Proportion


An estimate of the overall process proportion defective is p = (Y1+Y2+...+ Ym) / (n1+n2+...+ nm)
= (total defectives) / (total items) When all samples have n items each then p = (p1 + p2 + ... + pm)/m

The estimated standard deviation of the process proportion defective is

Sp = p (1-p)/ ni

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Department of Statistics

P Chart Control Lines & Limits


The coordinates for the seven lines on the P chart are positioned at: CL U1SL U2SWL UCL = = = = p p + Sp p + 2Sp p + 3Sp L1SL = p - Sp L2SWL = p - 2Sp LCL = p - 3Sp

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Department of Statistics

Wallpaper Ltd
WL is a custom wallpapers and borders manufacturer. While their products vary in visual design, the manufacturing process for each of the products is similar. Each day a sample of 100 rolls of wallpaper border is sampled and the number of defective rolls in the sample is noted. The number of defective rolls in samples from 25 consecutive production days follows. Determine all coordinates; construct & interpret the p chart. PATs 1, 2, 3 and 4 apply to p charts.

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Day Defective Rolls Day

Department of Statistics
Defective Rolls

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

13 4 7 11 8 10 2 9 12 6 4 7 9

14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

8 9 3 5 14 10 11 6 6 9 3 10

WL

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WL

Department of Statistics

Total # of items sampled = 2500 Total # of defective items = 196 p = 196/2500 = .0784 Sp = .0784(.9216)/100 = .02688 Use of Statistics

College of Science
WL
CL = U1SL = L1SL = U2SWL = L2SWL = UCL = LCL = .0784

Department of Statistics

.0784 + .0269 = .0784 - .0269 = .0784 - .0538 =

.1053 .0515 .0246

.0784 + 2(.0269) = .1322 .0784 + 3(.0269) = .1590 .0784 - .0806 = -.0022 (na)

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0.15

Department of Statistics
3.0SL=0.1590 2.0SL=0.1322

P Chart for Defective Wallpaper Rolls

Proportion

0.10

1.0SL=0.1053 P=0.07840

0.05

-1.0SL=0.05152 -2.0SL=0.02464

0.00 Subgroup Rolls 0 5 8 10 6 15 9 20 11 25 10

-3.0SL=0.000

Proportion of Defective Rolls Received

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WL

Department of Statistics

P Chart Interpretation
No violations of PATs one through four are apparent. This implies that the process is in a state of statistical control. It does not indicate that we are satisfied with the performance of the process. It does, however, indicate that the process is stable enough in its performance that we may seriously engage in PDCA for the purpose of long-term process improvement.

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C and U Charts for Nonconformities

College of Science

Department of Statistics

When data originates from a Poisson process, it is customary to monitor output from the process with a defects or C chart Recall the Poisson Distribution with mean = c and standard deviation = c P(y) = cye-c/y!

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Department of Statistics

C & U Charts for Nonconformities


C represents the average number of defects (nonconformities) per measured unit with all units assumed to be of the same size and all samples are assumed to have the same number of units m = 20 to 40 initial samples C = (number of defects in the m samples) / m Estimated standard deviation = C

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Department of Statistics

C Control Chart Coordinates


CL = C UCL = C+3 C and LCL = C-3 C

U2SWL= C+2 C and L2SWL = C- 2 C U1SL = C+ C and L1SL = C- C

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College of Science

Department of Statistics

STML produces material for use as gaskets in scientific, medical, and engineering equipment. Scarred material can adversely affect the ability of the material to fulfill its intended use. A sample of 40 pieces of material, taken at a rate of 1 per each 25 pieces of material produced gave the results on the following slide. Use this information to construct and interpret a C chart.

Scientific & Technical Materials Ltd (STML)

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STML
Piece Scars Piece Scars Piece Scars Piece Scars 1 4 2 4 3 2 4 3 5 1

Department of Statistics

6 2

7 0

8 2

9 3

10 1

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 1 1 2 3 0 4 3 2 2 1 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 2 1 0 3 5 4 2 1 4 2 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 2 1 1 3 2 0 1 5 9 1

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STML

Department of Statistics

C= 90/40= 2.25= CL, Sc= 2.25 = 1.5 UCL= 2.25+ 3(1.5) = 6.75 LCL= 2.25- 4.5 = -2.25 (NA) U2SWL= 2.25+ 2(1.5)= 5.25 L2SWL= 2.25- 3 = -0.75 (NA) U1SL= 2.25+ 1.5 = 3.75 L1SL= 2.25- 1.5 = Statistics Use of 0.75

College of Science
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
25 10

Department of Statistics

Scientific & Technical Materials, Inc.


C Chart for Gasket Material Data

UCL
U2SWL

U1SL CL
L1SL
40 22 7 28 13 31 4 34 37 16 19

Use of Statistics

College of Science

Department of Statistics
STML

C Chart Interpretation Application of PATs one through four indicates a violation of PAT 1 at sample number 39 where 9 scars appear on the surface of the sampled material. Corrective measures would be identified and implemented. After process stability was (re) assured, we would move into PDCA mode.

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U = (u1+u2+...+um) / (n1+n2+...+nm)

Department of Statistics

= (total # of defects) / (total # of units in the m samples)


CL = U UCL = U+ 3 U/ni, U2SWL= U+ 2 U/ni, U1Sl= U+ U/ni, LCL= U-3 U/ni U Chart: Variation of the C chart where Sample size may vary

L2SWL= U- 2 U/ni L1SL= U- U/ni

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College of Science

Department of Statistics

Process Capability:
The Control Chart Method for Attributes Data
1. Construct the control chart and remove all special causes. NOTE: special causes are special only in that they come and go, not because their impact is either good or bad. 2. Process capability is estimated using the CENTERLINE value. In the case of binomial data, this is generally the proportion defective. In the case of Poisson data, this is that average number of defects per unit.

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College of Science

Department of Statistics

Control Charts for the Process Mean and Dispersion


X bar Chart
Typically used to monitor process centrality (or location) Limits depend on the measure is used to monitor process dispersion (R or S may be used).

S or Standard Deviation Chart:


Used to monitor process dispersion

R or Range Chart:
Also used to monitor process dispersion Use of Statistics

College of Science
each.

Department of Statistics

m = 20 to 40 initial samples of n observations Xi = mean of ith sample Si = standard deviation of ith sample Ri = range of ith sample
X = (X1 + X2 +... + Xm) / m S = (S1 + S2 + ... +Sm)/m R = (R1 + R2 + ... + Rm)/m

^ = R/d2 where d2 depends only on n

Sample Summary Information


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Department of Statistics

Coordinates for the X Control Chart: R CL= X, UCL= X+ A2R,

UCL= X- A2R U2SWL= X+ 2A2R/3 L2SWL= X- 2A2R/3 U1SL= X+ A2R/3 L1SL= X- A2R/3
A2 is a constant that depends only on n.

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CL= R UCL= D4R LCL= D3R U2SWL= R+ 2(D4-1)R/3 L2SWL= R- 2(D4-1)R/3 U1SL= R+ (D4-1)R/3 L1SL= R- (D4-1)R/3

Department of Statistics

Coordinates for the R Control Chart

where D3 and D4 depend only on n

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College of Science

Department of Statistics

Championship Card Company


Championship Card Company (CCC) produces collectible sports cards of college, professional and Olympic athletes and is considering branching into the celebrity card market. CCCs card-front design uses a picture of the athlete, bordered all-theway-around with one-eighth inch gold foil. However, the process used to center an athletes picture does not function perfectly. Five cards are randomly selected from each 1000 cards produced and measured to determine the degree of off-centeredness of each cards picture. The measurement taken represents percentage of total margin (.25) that is on the left edge of a card. Data from 30 consecutive samples is included with your materials, and summarized on the following slides.

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Department of Statistics

Championship Card Company


Sample X-bar R 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 55.6 61.0 45.2 46.2 46.8 49.8 46.8 44.2 50.8 48.4 22 23 20 11 18 23 18 20 32 16 Sample X-bar R 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 51.2 49.4 44.0 51.6 53.2 52.4 50.6 56.0 50.2 44.0 15 14 32 14 12 23 8 18 19 23 Sample X-bar R 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 50.0 47.0 50.6 48.8 44.6 46.8 49.2 45.6 57.6 51.4 11 14 15 16 22 16 8 19 40 17

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n=5 X = 49.63 S = 7.42 R = 18.63 d2 = 2.326 A2 = 0.577

Department of Statistics
A3 = 1.427 B3 = NA B4 = 2.089 D3 = NA D4 = 2.115 = R/d2 = 8.01

Championship Card Company Summary Information

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College of Science

Department of Statistics

Championship Card Company X-bar and R Control Chart Limits


UCL U2SWL U1SL CL L1SL L2SWL LCL X based on R 60.38 56.80 53.22 49.63 46.05 42.47 38.89 R 39.40 32.48 25.55 18.63 11.71 4.79 ------

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College of Science

Department of Statistics

Championship Card Company


X Bar Chart for Sports Cards Centering Values Limits Based on R
1 60 3.0SL=60.38 2.0SL=56.80

Sample Mean

1.0SL=53.22 50 X=49.63 - 1.0SL=46.05 - 2.0SL=42.47 40 0 10 20 30 - 3.0SL=38.89

Samples of 5 from each 1000 Cards Printed

Sample Number

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Department of Statistics

Championship Card Company


R Chart for Sports Card Centering
40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 3.0SL=39.40 2.0SL=32.48 1.0SL=25.55 R=18.63 - 1.0SL=11.71 - 2.0SL=4.791 - 3.0SL=0.000

S m Rn a ple a ge

Samples of 5 Cards from each 1000 Produced

Sam ple Num ber

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Department of Statistics

Championship Card Company


X-bar & R Chart Interpretation
Application of all eight PATs to the X-bar chart indicated a violation of PAT 1
(one point plotting above the UCL) at sample 2. Apparently, a successful process adjustment was made, as suggested by examination of the remainder of the chart. 1 at sample 29. Measures would be investigated to reduce process variation at that point. The violation was a close call and was out of character with the remainder of the data. achieving lasting process improvements.

Application of PATs one through four to the R chart indicated a violation of PAT

We are close to being able to apply PDCA to the process for the purpose of

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CL= X UCL= X= A3S LCL= X- A3S U2SWL= X+ 2A3S/3 L2SWL= X- 2A3S/3 U1SL= X+ A3S/3 L1SL= X- A3S/3 where A3 depends only on n

Department of Statistics
Coordinates for the X Control Chart: S

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College of Science
CL= S UCL= B4S LCL= B3S

Department of Statistics
Coordinates on an S Control Chart

U2SWL= S+ 2(B4-1)S/3 L2SWL= S- 2(B4-1)S/3 U1SL= S+ (B4-1)S/3 L1SL= S- (B4-1)S/3 where B3 and B4 depend only on n

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Department of Statistics

Championship Card Company


Sample 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 X-bar 55.6 61.0 45.2 46.2 46.8 S 9.63 8.63 7.40 4.09 7.22 Sample 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 X-bar S Sample X-bar 51.2 6.83 21 50.0 49.4 5.46 22 47.0 44.0 14.35 23 50.6 51.6 5.18 24 48.8 53.2 5.36 25 44.6 52.4 9.48 50.6 3.44 56.0 7.00 50.2 7.60 44.0 8.46 26 27 28 29 30 S 5.15 5.15 5.55 6.50 8.96

49.8 8.76 46.8 6.72 44.2 8.53 50.8 11.95 48.4 6.19

46.8 6.50 49.2 3.19 45.6 7.96 57.6 14.38 51.4 6.80

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UCL U2SWL U1SL CL L1SL L2SWL LCL 60.22 56.69 53.16 49.63 46.11 42.58 39.05

Department of Statistics
S
15.49 12.80 10.11 7.42 4.72 2.03 ------

X based on S

Championship Card Company X and S Chart Limits Use of Statistics

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Department of Statistics

Championship Card Company


X Bar Chart for Sports Cards Centering Values
1 60

Limits Based on S

3.0SL=60.22 2.0SL=56.69

Sample Mean

1.0SL=53.16 50 X=49.63 -1.0SL=46.11 -2.0SL=42.58 40 0 10 20 30 -3.0SL=39.05

Samples of 5 from each 1000 Cards Printed

Sample Number

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Department of Statistics

Championship Card Company


S Chart for Sports Card Centering Values
15 3.0SL=15.49 2.0SL=12.80

Sample Stdev

10

1.0SL=10.11 S=7.416

- 1.0SL=4.724 - 2.0SL=2.032

0 0 10 20 30

- 3.0SL=0.000

5 Cards Sampled from each 1000 Cards Produced

Sample Number

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Department of Statistics

Championship Card Company


X & S Chart Interpretation

Application of all eight PATs to the X-bar chart indicates a violation of PAT 1 (one pt. above the UCL) at sample 2. Judging from the remainder of the chart, the process was successfully adjusted. Application of the first four PATs to the S chart indicates no violations. In summary, the process appears to have been temporarily out-of-control w.r.t. its mean at sample 2. The process was successfully adjusted and may now be subjected to PDCA for permanent improvement purposes.

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Department of Statistics

Process Capability:
The Control Chart Method for Variables Data
1. 2. Construct the control chart and remove all special causes. NOTE: special causes are special only in that they come and go, not because their impact is either good or bad. Estimate the standard deviation. The approach used depends on whether a R or S chart is used to monitor process variability.

^ _
= S / c4

= R / d2

Several capability indices are provided on the following slide.

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^

Department of Statistics
^

Process Capability Indices: Variables Data


CP = (engineering tolerance)/6 = (USL LSL) / 6

This index is generally used to evaluate machine capability. tolerance to the engineering requirements. Assuming that the process is (approximately) normally distributed and that the process average is centered between the specifications, an index value of 1 is considered to represent a minimally capable process. HOWEVER allowing for a drift, a minimum value of 1.33 is ordinarily sought bigger is better. A true Six Sigma process that allows for a 1.5 shift will have Cp = 2.

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Department of Statistics

Process Capability Indices: Variables Data


CR = 100*6 / (Engineering Tolerance) = 100* 6 / (USL LSL) This is called the capability ration. Effectively this is the reciprocal of Cp so that a value of less than 75% is generally needed and a Six Sigma process (with a 1.5 shift) will lead to a CR of 50%.

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Department of Statistics

Process Capability Indices: Variables Data


CM = (engineering tolerance)/8 = (USL LSL) / 8

This index is generally used to evaluate machine capability. Note this is only MACHINE capability and NOT the capability of the full process. Given that there will be additional sources of variation (tooling, fixtures, materials, etc.) CM uses an 8 spread,

rather than 6. For a machine to be used on a Six Sigma process, a 10 spread would be used.

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= ^ =

Department of Statistics
^

Process Capability Indices: Variables Data


ZU = (USL X) / ZL = (X LSL) /

Zmin = Minimum (ZL , ZU) Cpk = Zmin / 3 This index DOES take into account how well or how poorly centered a process is. A value of at least +1 is required with a value of at least +1.33 being preferred. Cp and Cpk are closely related. In some sense Cpk represents the current capability of the process whereas Cp represents the potential gain to be had from perfectly centering the process between specifications.

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Department of Statistics

Assume that we have conducted a capability analysis using X-bar and R charts with subgroups of size n = 5. Also assume the process is in statistical control with an average of 0.99832 and an average range of 0.02205. A table of d2 values gives d2 = 2.326 (for n = 5). Suppose LSL = 0.9800 and USL = 1.0200

_ = R / d2 = 0.02205/2.326 = 0.00948 Cp = (1.0200 0.9800) / 6(.00948) = 0.703

Process Capability:
Example

CR = 100*(6*0.00948) / (1.0200 0.9800) = 142.2% CM = (1.0200 0.9800) / (8*(0.00948)) = 0.527 ZL = (.99832 - .98000)/(.00948) = 1.9 ZU = (1.02000 .99832)/(.00948) = 2.3 so that Zmin = 1.9 Cpk = Zmin / 3 = 1.9 / 3 = 0.63

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Department of Statistics

Process Capability: Interpretation


Cp = 0.703 since this is less than 1, the process is not regarded as being capable. CR = 142.2% implies that the natural tolerance consumes 142% of the specifications (not a good situation at all). CM = 0.527 = Being less than 1.33, this implies that if we were dealing with a machine, that it would be incapable of meeting requirements. ZL = 1.9 This should be at least +3 and this value indicates that approximately 2.9% of product will be undersized. ZU = 2.3 should be at least +3 and this value indicates that approximately 1.1% of product will be oversized. Cpk = 0.63 since this is only slightly less that the value of Cp the indication is that there is little to be gained by centering and that the need is to reduce process variation.

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Cthere differences in the measurement accuracy of instrumentstatistics ollege of Science Department of S / Are
methods used? Are there differences in the methods used by different personnel? Is the process affected by the environment, e.g. temperature/humidity? Has there been a significant change in the environment? Is the process affected by predictable conditions such as tool wear? Were any untrained personnel involved in the process at the time? Has there been a change in the source for input to the process such as a new supplier or information? Is the process affected by employee fatigue? Has there been a change in policies or procedures such as maintenance procedures? Is the process frequently adjusted? Did the samples come from different parts of the process? Shifts? Individuals? Are employees afraid to report bad news?

Common Questions for Investigating an Out-of-Control Process

Use of Statistics

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