HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION

A hypergeometric experiment is a statistical experiment that has the following properties:

A sample of size n is randomly selected without replacement from a population of N items.
In the population, k items can be classified as successes, and N - k items can be classified as failures.

Consider a statistical experiment.

For example, - you have 10 marbles

5 red and 5 green.

You randomly select 2 marbles without replacement and count the number of red marbles you have selected. Hence, this would be hypergeometric experiment.

Note that it would not be a binomial experiment. A binomial experiment requires that the probability of success be constant on every trial. With the above experiment, the probability of a success changes on every trial. In the beginning, the probability of selecting a red marble is 5/10. If you select a red marble on the first trial, the probability of selecting a red marble on the second trial is 4/9. And if you select a green marble on the first trial, the probability of selecting a red marble on the second trial is 5/9. Note further that if you selected the marbles with replacement, the probability of success would not change. It would be 5/10 on every trial. Then, this would be a binomial experiment.

Notation The following notation is helpful, when we talk about hypergeometric distributions and hypergeometric probability.
N: The number of items in the population. k: The number of items in the population that are classified as successes n: The number of items in the sample. x: The number of items in the sample that are classified as successes. kCx: The number of combinations of k things, taken x at a time. h(x; N, n, k): hypergeometric probability - the probability that an n-trial hypergeometric experiment results in exactly x successes, when the population consists of N items, k of which are classified as successes.

A hypergeometric random variable is the number of successes that result from a hypergeometric experiment. Accordingly, The probability distribution of a hypergeometric random variable is called a hypergeometric distribution. The hypergeometric probability will be computed based on a hypergeometric following formula given x, N, n, and k.

HYPERGEOMETRIC FORMULA
Suppose a population consists of N items, k of which are successes. And a random sample drawn from that population consists on n items, x of which are successes. Then the hypergeometric probability is: h (x; N, n, k) = [ k C x ] [ N-k C n - x ] / [ N C n ]

The hypergeometric formula can be rewritten as:

- k k N x n - x h( x, N , n, k ) = N n

From the given formula, there are

- k ways. N n - x

k selecting x x

successes from the k

that are available, and for each of these ways we can choose the n - x failures in

The total number of samples of size n chosen from N items is

N n

Examples:
1. Suppose we randomly select 5 cards without replacement from an ordinary deck of playing cards. What is the probability of getting exactly 2 red cards?
Solution:

N = 52; since there are 52 cards in a deck. k = 26; since there are 26 red cards in a deck. n = 5; since we randomly select 5 cards from the deck x = 2; since 2 of the cards we select are red.
We plug these values into the hypergeometric formula as follows:

h(x; N, n, k) = [ kCx ] [ N-kCn-x ] / [ NCn ] h(2; 52, 5, 26) = [ 26C2 ] [ 26C3 ] / [ 52C5 ] h(2; 52, 5, 26) = [ 325 ] [ 2600 ] / [ 2,598,960 ] = 0.32513
Thus, the probability of randomly selecting 2 red cards is 0.32513.

2. If 5 cards are dealt from a standard deck of 52 playing cards, what is the probability that 3 will be hearts?
By using the hypergeometric distribution, N = 52, n = 5, k = 13 and x = 3,

Substitute these values into the hypergeometric formula:

h( x; N , n, k ) =

h(x; N, n, k) = [ kCx ] [ N-kCn-x ] / [ NCn ] 13 39 3 2

52 5

=.0815

3. What is the probability that a waitress will refuse to serve alcoholic to only 2 minors if she randomly checks the I.D.s of 6 students from among 9 students of which 4 are not of legal age? By using the hypergeometric Solution: distribution, N =9; k=4; n=6; x=2

h(x; N, n, k) = [ kCx ] [ N-kCn-x ] / [ NCn ]

h(2; 52, 5, 26) = [ 4C2 ] [ 5C4 ] / [ 9C6 ]

= 5/14 or 0.357

4. Suppose we select 5 cards from an ordinary deck of playing cards. What is the probability of obtaining 2 or fewer hearts?
Solution:
N = deck n = 5; since we randomly select 5 cards from the deck k 13; to x = 0 since there are 13 hearts in a deck since our selection includes 0, 1,or 2 hearts. 2; h (x < x; N, n, k) = h (x < 2; 52, 5, 13) h (x < 2; 52, 5, 13) = h (x = 0; 52, 5, 13) + h (x = 1; 52, 5, 13) + h (x = 2; 52, 5,13)

52; since there are 52 cards in a

39 13 0 5 h( x < 2; 52, 5, 13) = + 52 5 h(x < 2; 52, 5, 13) = 0.9072

13 39 4 1 + 52 5

13 39 3 2 52 5

If a population of size N can be partitioned into k cells A1, A2,, Ak, with a1, in the first cell, a2 elements in the second cell,ak elements in the kth cell, then the probability distribution of the reandom variable X1, X2, , Xk, representing the number of elements selected from A1, A2, , Ak in random variable n is defined to be Multivariate Hypergeometric Distribution.

The formula is:

with

a1a2 ak ... x1x2 xk f(, X 1 , X 2 ,..,xk ; a1 ,a2 ,..,ak ,N,n)= N n a = N.

Xi = n

and

i= 1

i= 1

Note that the total number nof samples that can be chosen of size n from a population of size N is still 1 ai = N . i= a There are x ways of selecting x1 items from the items in A1, 2 a for each of these we can choose x2 items from the items in A2 in x 2 ways.
1 1

Therefore we can select x1 items from A1 and x2 items from A2 in

1 a 2 a x1 x 2 .

ways

Continuing in this way, we select all n items consisting of x1 from a1, x2 from A2, , Xk from Ak in ... a a a ways. x x x
1 2 k 1 2 k

Example:
1. A gardener wishes to landscape a piece of property by planting flowers across the front and back of the house. From a box containing 3 tulip bulbs, 4 daffodil bulbs and 3 hyacinth bulbs he selects 5 at random to be planted at the front of the house, and the remaining 5 are planted at the rear of the house. What is the probability of that 1 tulip plant, 2 daffodil plants, and hyacinth plants bloom at the front of the house?

Solution:

a1 = 3, a2 = 4, a3 = 3, x1 = 1, x2 = 2, x3 = 2, N = 10, n = 5,

1 2 k a a ...a x1x2 xk f(, X 1 , X 2 ,..,xk ; a1 ,a2 ,..,ak ,N,n)= N n

3 4 3 22 1 f(,1, 2 , 2 ,3, 4 ,3,10 ,5 ) = 10 5

= 3/14 or 0.214

2. A car rental agency at a local airport has available 5 Fords, 7 Chevrolets, 4 Dodges, 3 Datsuns and 4 Toyotas. If the agency randomly selects 9 of theses cars to chauffer delegates from the airport to the downtown convention center, find the probability that 2 Fords , 3 Chevrolets, 1 Dodge, 1 Datsun, and 2 Toyota are used.
Solution:

N = 23, n = 9, a1 = 5, a 2 = 7, a 3 = 4 a 4 = 3 a 5 = 4,
x1 = 2 x 2 = 3, x 3 = 1, x 4 = 1, x 5 = 2

57434 231 1 2 f(,5, 7 , 4 ,3, 4; 2, 3,1,1, 2 ) = 23 9

25200 f(,5,7 , 4,3, 4; 2, 3,1,1, 2 )= 817190

f(,5,7 , 4,3, 4; 2,3,1,1, 2 )= 0.308