Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Outline
Definitions Decisions and alternatives Characterizing decisions Decision making strategies Decision making phases Implications for decision support
Definitions
Choice about a course of action -- Simon Choice leading to a certain desired objective -- Churchman Knowledge indicating the nature of a commitment to action -- Holsapple and Whinston
Example
A farmer with his wolf, goat, and cabbage come to the edge of a river they wish to cross. There is a boat at the rivers edge, but of course, only the farmer can row. The boat can only handle one animal/item in addition to the farmer. If the wolf is ever left alone with the goat, the wolf will eat the goat. If the goat is left alone with the cabbage, the goat will eat the cabbage. What should the farmer do to get across the river with all his possessions?
Phase I: Intelligence
Problem Identification and Definition What's the problem? Why is it a problem? Whose problem is it?
Problem Solving
State Space Search Initial State Goal State Operators Choosing representation and controlling the application of operators requires decision making
Problem Representation
L
Evaluation
how should each alternative be evaluated? how reliable is our expectation about the impact of an alternative?
Choice
What strategy will be used to arrive at a choice?
E.g., DxPlain
Retain only limited information in short-term memory Display different types and degrees of intelligence Those who embrace closed belief systems restrict information search Propensity for risk varies Level of aspiration positively correlated to desire for information
Difficulty in isolating a problem Delimiting the problem space too closely Inability to see the problem from various perspectives Stereotyping Cognitive saturation or overload
Optimizing
Goal: select the course of action with the highest payoff estimation of costs and benefits of every viable course of action simultaneous or joint comparison of costs and benefits of all alternatives high information processing load on humans people do not have the ``wits to maximize'' [Simon]
Given high cost in time, effort, and money Decisions are made under severe time pressure (``fighting fires'') Optimization on stated objectives may result in sub-optimization on unstated, less tangible objectives Therefore, people often Do not consider all alternatives Do not evaluate all alternatives thoroughly and rigorously Do not consider all objectives and criteria Place more weight on intangible objectives and criteria
Observations
Satisficing
Decision-makers satisfice rather than maximize [Simon]. They choose courses of action that are ``good enough''---that meet a certain minimal set of requirements Theory of bounded rationality: human beings have limited information processing capabilities Optimization may not be practical, particularly in a multi-objective problem, yet knowing the optimal solution for each objective and under various scenarios can provide insight to make a good satisficing choice
Selection by Elimination
Eliminate alternatives that do not meet the most important criterion (screening; elimination by aspects) Repeat process for the next important criterion, and so on Decision-making becomes a sequential narrowing down process
Selection by Elimination
``Better'' alternatives might be eliminated early on---improper weights assigned to criteria Decision-maker might run out of alternatives For complex problems, this process might still leave decision maker with large number of alternatives
Incrementalism
Often, decision-makers have no real awareness of arriving at a new policy or decision decision-making is an ongoing process the satisficing criteria themselves might change over time Make incremental improvements over current situation and aim to reach an optimal situation over time Useful for ``fire-fighting'' situations Frequently found in pluralistic societies and organizations
Example 1
Which is riskier (probability of serious accident): a. Driving a car on a 400 mile trip? b. Flying on a 400 mile commercial airline flight?
Example 2
Are there more words in the English language a. that start with the letter r ? b. for which r is the third letter?
Availability
what is easily recalled must be more likely Inability to accurately assess the probability of a particular event happening
Assess based on past experience which may not be representative Structured review and analysis of objective data can reduce availability bias
Example 1
A newly hired programmer for a software firm in Pittsburgh has two years experience and good qualifications. When an employee at Au Bon Pain was asked to estimate the starting salary she guessed $40,000. What is your estimate? a. $30,000 - $50,000? b. $50,000 - $70,000? c. $70,000 - $90,000?
Example 2
A newly hired programmer for a software firm in Pittsburgh has two years experience and good qualifications. When an employee at Au Bon Pain was asked to estimate the starting salary she guessed $80,000. What is your estimate? a. $30,000 - $50,000? b. $50,000 - $70,000? c. $70,000 - $90,000?
Example
What is the most likely sequence of gender for series of children born within a family? - The sequence of BBGGBG, BGBBBG, BBBBGG?
Example
Mike is finishing his CMU MMM degree. He is very interested in the arts and at one time considered a career as a musician. Is Mark more likely to take a job: a. In the management of the arts? b. A medical management position?
Representativeness
Attempt to ascertain the probability that a person or object belongs to a particular group or class by the degree to which characteristics of that person or object conform to a stereotypical perception of members of that group or class. The closer the similarity between the two, the higher is the estimated probability of association
Small sample size bias Failure to recognize regression to the mean (predicted outcomes representative of the input?)
Motivational
Incentives, real or perceived, often lead to probability estimates that do not accurately reflect his or her true beliefs
Non-cognitive, motivational biases Difficult to address through the design of a DSS
Solicit a number of estimates from similar sources, both related and unrelated to problem context
Evaluation Metrics
Effectiveness: what should be done
Easier access to relevant information Faster, more efficient problem recognition and identification Easier access to computing tools and models Greater ability to generate and evaluate large set of alternatives
Value of DSS
Increase the bounds of rationality
easier access to information identify relevant information increase ability to process information