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Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses Type II n Type I and Errors n Population Mean:
n
attempting to establish.
The research hypothesis should be expressed as the alternative hypothesis. The conclusion that the research hypothesis is true comes from sample data that contradict the null hypothesis.
Testing the Validity of a Claim Manufacturers claims are usually given the benefit of conclusion that the as the false Thethe doubt and statedclaim is null comes hypothesis. from sample data that contradict the null hypothesis.
A decision maker might have to choose between two courses of action, one associated with the null hypothesis and another associated with Example: Accepting a shipment of goodsthe alternative hypothesis. from a supplier or returning the shipment of goods to the supplier
Summary of Forms for Null and Alternative Hypotheses about a Population Mean of the hypotheses always n The equality part
appears in the null hypothesis. n In general, a hypothesis test about the value of a population mean must take one of the following three forms (where 0 is the hypothesized value ofH 0: 0 H 0: 0 H 0: = 0 the population mean). > H : < H : H :
a 0 a 0 a 0
Onetailed (lowertail)
Onetailed (uppertail)
Twotailed
6
A major west coast city provides one of the most comprehensive emergency medical services in the world. Operating in a multiple hospital system with approximately 20 mobile medical units, the service goal is to respond to medical emergencies with a mean time of 12 minutes or less.
The director of medical services wants to formulate a hypothesis test that could use a sample of emergency response times to determine whether or not the service goal of 12 minutes or less is being achieved.
Ha: > 1 2
not meeting the response goal; appropriate follow-up action is necessary. where: = mean response time for the population of medical emergency requests
Type I Error
Because hypothesis tests are based on sample data, we must allow for the possibility of errors. n A Type I error is rejecting H0 when it is true.
n
The probability of making a Type I error when the null hypothesis is true as an equality is called the n Applications of hypothesis testing that only level of significance. control the Type I error are often called significance tests.
n
Type II Error
A Type II error is accepting H0 when it is false.
n
It is difficult to control for the probability of making n Statisticians avoid the risk of making a Type a Type II error. II error by using do not reject H0 and not accept H0.
n
Population Condition H0 True ( < 12) Correct Decision Type I Error H0 False ( > 12) Type II Error
Correct Decision
< .
Lower-Tailed Test About a Population Mean: Known p-Value < , n p-Value Approach
so reject H0.
=. 10
pvalue = .072 z = -z 0 = 1.4 6 -1.2 Thomson South-Western. All Rights
Sampling distributio n z = x 0 / n of z
2007
Upper-Tailed Test About a Population Mean: Known p-Value < , n p-Value Approach
so reject H0.
Sampling distributio n z = x 0 / n of
=. 04
pValue = .011 z 0 z = z = 2.2 9
distribution table to find the z-value with an area of value of the test upper) that n The in the lower (orstatistic tail of the distribution.the established the
n
boundary of the rejection region is called The rejection rule is: critical value for the test. Lower tail: Reject H0 if z < -z Upper tail: Reject H0 if z > z
Reject H0 = .10
z = 1.28
Reject H0 = .0 5
pvalue = 1 .9932 = .0068 5. Determine whether to reject H0. Because pvalue = .0068 < = .05, we reject H0. There is sufficient statistical evidence to infer that Metro EMS is not meeting the response goal of 12 minutes.
2007 Thomson South-Western. All Rights
=. 05
pvalue = .0068 z 0 z = 1.64 All Rights 5 z = 2.4 7
p -Value (lower tail) =NORMSDIST(C8) p -Value (lower tail) =1-C10 p -Value (two tail) =2*(MIN(C10,C11))
Approach 4. Determine the critical value and rejection rule. For = .05, z.05 = 1.645 Reject H0 if z > 1.645 5. Determine whether to reject H0. Because 2.47 > 1.645, we reject H0. There is sufficient statistical evidence to infer that Metro EMS is not meeting the response goal of 12 minutes.
2007 Thomson South-Western. All Rights
statistic z. the upper tail (z > 0), find the area 2. If z is in under the standard normal curve to the right of z. If z is in the lower tail (z < 0), find the area under 3. Double the tail area obtained in step 2 to the obtain standard normal curve to the left of z.
n
z > z/2.
Two-Tailed Test About a Population Mean: Known The production line for Glow toothpaste is designed to fill tubes with a mean oz. weight of 6 oz. Periodically, a sample of 30 Glow tubes willQuality assurance procedures the for be selected in order to check call filling process. of the filling process if the the continuation sample results are consistent with the assumption that the mean filling weight for the population of toothpaste tubes is 6 oz.; otherwise the process will be adjusted.
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean: pKnown and Critical Value Value
H0: = 6 6 Ha: 2. Specify the level of =. significance. 03 3. Compute the value of the test statistic. x 0 6 6 .1 z= = = 2 4 .7 / n .2/ 30
Glo w
Approach 4. Compute the p value. For z = 2.74, cumulative probability = .9969 pvalue = 2(1 .9969) = .0062 5. Determine whether to reject H0. Because pvalue = .0062 < = .03, we reject sufficient statistical evidence to There isH0. infer that the alternative hypothesis is true (i.e. the mean filling weight is not 6 ounces).
2007 Thomson South-Western. All Rights
Glo w
Glo w
Approach
Glo w
Glo w
Approach 4. Determine the critical value and rejection rule. For /2 = .03/2 = .015, z.015 = 2.17 H0 if z < -2.17 or z Reject
Glo w
> 2.17 5. Determine whether to reject H0. Because 2.74 > 2.17, we There reject H0. statistical evidence to is sufficient infer that the alternative hypothesis is true (i.e. the mean filling weight is not 6 ounces).
Approach
Glo w
Reject H0 /2 = . 015
x z /2
6.1 2.17(.2 = n
Glo w
30 )
6.1 = .07924
the population mean, 0 = 6, is not in this interval, the hypothesis-testing conclusion is that the null hypothesis, H0: = 6, can be rejected.
2007 Thomson South-Western. All Rights
Test Statistic
x 0 t= s/ n
Rejection Rule: p -Value Approach Reject H0 if p value < Rejection Rule: Critical Value Approach H0: > 0 H0: < 0 H0: = 0 Reject H0 if t < -t Reject H0 if t > t Reject H0 if t < - t/2 or t > t/2
One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean: Unknown Highway Patrol periodically A State samples vehicle speeds at various locations on a particular roadway. The sample of vehicle speeds is used to test the hypothesis H0: < 65 The locations where H0 is rejected are deemed the best locations for radar traps.
One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean: Unknown At Location F, a sample of 64 vehicles shows a mean speed of 66.2 mph with a standard deviation of 4.2 mph. Use = .05 to test the hypothesis.
H0: < 65 Ha: > 2. Specify the level of 65 = . significance. 05 3. Compute the value of the test statistic. x 0 66.2 65 t= = = 2.286 s/ n 4.2/ 64
5. Determine whether to .01 < pvalue < .025 reject H0. Because pvalue < = .05, we reject H0. We are at least 95% confident that the mean speed of vehicles at Location F is greater than 65 mph.
Do Not Reject H0
Reject H0 = .0 5 t = 1.66 9
appears in the null hypothesis. n In general, a hypothesis test about the value of a population proportion p must take one of the following three forms (where p0 is the hypothesized value of p p0 H 0: p proportion). = p0 H 0: p H 0: the population p0
A Summary of Forms for Null and Alternative Hypotheses About a Population Proportion hypotheses always n The equality part of the
H a: p < p0
H a: p > p0
H a: p p0
2007
OneOneTwotailed tailed tailed (lower (upper tail) tail) Thomson South-Western. All Rights
Test Statistic
p p0 z= p
where :
p =
p0 (1 p0 ) n
Rejection Rule: p Value Approach Reject H0 if p value < Rejection Rule: Critical Value Approach H0: p < p0 H0: p > p0 H0: p = p0 Reject H0 if z > z Reject H0 if z < -z Reject H0 if z < -z/2 or z > z/2
Example: National Safety Council (NSC) a Christmas and New Years For
week, the National Safety Council estimated that 500 people would be killed and 25,000 injured on the nations roads. The NSC claimed that 50% of the accidents would be caused by drunk driving.
Example: National Safety Council (NSC) A sample of 120 accidents showed that 67 were caused by drunk driving. Use these data to test the NSCs claim with = .05.
H 0: p = .5 H a: p .5
= .05
3. Compute the value of the test statistic. p0(1 p0 ) .5(1 .5) p = = =.045644 n 120 a common error is p p0 (67/ 120) .5 z= = = 1.28 p using p .045644 in this formulaThomson South-Western. All Rights 2007
pvalue = whether to 5. Determine 2(1 .8997) = .2006 reject H0. Because pvalue = .2006 > = .05, we cannot reject H0.
Hypothesized Value 0.5 Standard Error 0.0456 Test Statistic z 1.28 p -Value (lower tail) 0.8997 p -Value (upper tail) 0.1003 p -Value (two tail) 0.2006