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Learning Objectives
Understand what risk is and the importance of good project risk management. Discuss the elements involved in risk management planning and the contents of a risk management plan. List common sources of risks in information technology projects.
Table 11-1. Project Management Maturity by Industry Group and Knowledge Area*
KEY: 1 = LOWEST MATURITY RATING
Engineering/ Construction
3.52 3.55 3.74
Telecommunications
3.45 3.41 3.22
Hi-Tech Manufacturing
3.37 3.50 3.97
Quality
Human Resources Communications Risk Procurement
2.91
3.18 3.53 2.93 3.33
3.22
3.20 3.53 2.87 3.01
2.88
2.93 3.21 2.75 2.91
3.26
3.18 3.48 2.76 3.33
*Ibbs, C. William and Young Hoon Kwak. Assessing Project Management Maturity, Project Management Journal (March 2000).
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*Kulik, Peter and Catherine Weber, Software Risk Management Practices 2001, KLCI Research Group (August 2001).
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Negative Risk
A dictionary definition of risk is the possibility of loss or injury. Negative risk involves understanding potential problems that might occur in the project and how they might impede project success. Negative risk management is like a form of insurance; it is an investment.
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Risk Utility
Risk utility or risk tolerance is the amount of satisfaction or pleasure received from a potential payoff.
Utility rises at a decreasing rate for people who are risk-averse.
Those who are risk-seeking have a higher tolerance for risk and their satisfaction increases when more payoff is at stake. The risk-neutral approach achieves a balance between risk and payoff.
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People risk
Structure/process risk
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Business
Technical
Organizational
Project Management
Competitors
Hardware
Executive support
Estimates
Suppliers
Software
User support
Communication
Cash flow
Network
Team support
Resources
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Table 11-4. Potential Negative Risk Conditions Associated With Each Knowledge Area
Knowledge Area Integration Scope Time Cost Quality Risk Conditions Inadequate planning; poor resource allocation; poor integration management; lack of post-project review Poor definition of scope or work packages; incomplete definition of quality requirements; inadequate scope control Errors in estimating time or resource availability; poor allocation and management of float; early release of competitive products Estimating errors; inadequate productivity, cost, change, or contingency control; poor maintenance, security, purchasing, etc. Poor attitude toward quality; substandard design/materials/workmanship; inadequate quality assurance program Poor conflict management; poor project organization and definition of responsibilities; absence of leadership Carelessness in planning or communicating; lack of consultation with key stakeholders Ignoring risk; unclear assignment of risk; poor insurance management Unenforceable conditions or contract clauses; adversarial relations
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Risk Identification
Risk identification is the process of understanding what potential events might hurt or enhance a particular project. Risk identification tools and techniques include:
Brainstorming
The Delphi Technique Interviewing SWOT analysis
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Brainstorming
Brainstorming is a technique by which a group attempts to generate ideas or find a solution for a specific problem by amassing ideas spontaneously and without judgment. An experienced facilitator should run the brainstorming session. Be careful not to overuse or misuse brainstorming.
Psychology literature shows that individuals produce a greater number of ideas working alone than they do through brainstorming in small, face-to-face groups. Group effects often inhibit idea generation.
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Delphi Technique
The Delphi Technique is used to derive a consensus among a panel of experts who make predictions about future developments. Provides independent and anonymous input regarding future events. Uses repeated rounds of questioning and written responses and avoids the biasing effects possible in oral methods, such as brainstorming.
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Interviewing
Interviewing is a fact-finding technique for collecting information in face-to-face, phone, e-mail, or instantmessaging discussions. Interviewing people with similar project experience is an important tool for identifying potential risks.
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SWOT Analysis
SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) can also be used during risk identification. Helps identify the broad negative and positive risks that apply to a project.
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Risk Register
The main output of the risk identification process is a list of identified risks and other information needed to begin creating a risk register. A risk register is:
A document that contains the results of various risk management processes and that is often displayed in a table or spreadsheet format. A tool for documenting potential risk events and related information.
Risk events refer to specific, uncertain events that may occur to the detriment or enhancement of the project.
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Rank
1
Risk
Description
Category
Root Cause
Triggers
Potential Responses
Risk Owner
Probability
Impact
Status
R21
R7
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Probability/Impact Matrix
A probability/impact matrix or chart lists the relative probability of a risk occurring on one side of a matrix or axis on a chart and the relative impact of the risk occurring on the other. List the risks and then label each one as high, medium, or low in terms of its probability of occurrence and its impact if it did occur. Can also calculate risk factors:
Numbers that represent the overall risk of specific events based on their probability of occurring and the consequences to the project if they do occur.
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Expert Judgment
Many organizations rely on the intuitive feelings and past experience of experts to help identify potential project risks. Experts can categorize risks as high, medium, or low with or without more sophisticated techniques. Can also help create and monitor a watch list, a list of risks that are low priority, but are still identified as potential risks.
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Simulation
Simulation uses a representation or model of a system to analyze the expected behavior or performance of the system. Monte Carlo analysis simulates a models outcome many times to provide a statistical distribution of the calculated results. To use a Monte Carlo simulation, you must have three estimates (most likely, pessimistic, and optimistic) plus an estimate of the likelihood of the estimate being between the most likely and optimistic values.
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Figure 11-7. Sample Monte Carlo Simulation Results for Project Schedule
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Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity analysis is a technique used to show the effects of changing one or more variables on an outcome. For example, many people use it to determine what the monthly payments for a loan will be given different interest rates or periods of the loan, or for determining break-even points based on different assumptions. Spreadsheet software, such as Excel, is a common tool for performing sensitivity analysis.
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Table 11-8. General Risk Mitigation Strategies for Technical, Cost, and Schedule Risks
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Media Snapshot
A highly publicized example of a risk response to corporate financial scandals, such as those affecting Enron, Arthur Andersen, and WorldCom, was legal action. The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 is considered the most significant change to federal securities laws in the United States since the New Deal. This Act has caused many organizations to initiate projects and other actions to avoid litigation.*
*Iosub, John C., What the Sarbanes-Oxley Act Means for IT Managers, TechRepublic, (March 19, 2003) (http://techrepublic.com.com/5100-6313-5034345.html).
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Chapter Summary
Project risk management is the art and science of identifying, analyzing, and responding to risk throughout the life of a project and in the best interests of meeting project objectives. Main processes include:
Risk management planning Risk identification Qualitative risk analysis Quantitative risk analysis Risk response planning Risk monitoring and control
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