How Can We Sea the Ocean?

Building New Windows for Discovery and Education

Mike Crowley PM IOOS & OOI Rutgers University Coastal Ocean Observation Lab

You can observe a lot just by watching Yogi Berra

Not in the ocean. In the Ocean, we need help

crowley@marine.rutgers.edu

Looking at the ocean surface all the time is like going to the circus and staring at the outside of the tent.

- Dave Barry

=
crowley@marine.rutgers.edu

BUT, WE KNOW THIS!!! We want to know: Am I the first person in the world to see this? Am I making a new discovery?

What about everyone else?

crowley@marine.rutgers.edu

IOOS:
Serve the public need Convert science to products

Ocean Observatories Initiative is the NSFs contribution to IOOS

crowley@marine.rutgers.edu

OOI: Deployments have begun

Moorings Profilers HD Video Met Data Glider AUVs REMUS AUVs Acoustics And more

25 years

crowley@marine.rutgers.edu

Anyone with a computer For decades Eyes: Marine Instrumentation Discovery: Cyberinfrastructure IOOS data too

crowley@marine.rutgers.edu

 Available to scientists globally Oceanographers can add to it Young Scientists with no seed $

Whats our past record spreading knowledge?

crowley@marine.rutgers.edu

We have done a bad job. An Example

Have heard of climate change

(%)
99 50 15

Believe humans contribute to climate change

(%)
99 50 15
Gallup

Do Scientists need to improve communication skills?

crowley@marine.rutgers.edu

Simple Forecast Model

^ DY0/N DE0/N Field Initialization Y0 DP0/N Central Forecast ^ Ycf(-)
Most Probable Forecast ^ Y mp(-)

ESSE Smoothing via Statistical Approximation

+ +

Performance/ Analysis Modules

Historical, Synoptic, Future in Situ/Remote Field/Error Observations d0R0

Sample Probability Density

Shootin g Select Best Forecast

Synoptic Obs

Measurement Model

A Posteriori Residules dr (+)

Measurement Model
Measurement Error Covariance

Mean
Ensemble Mean

Data Residuals ^ d-CY(-)

OA via ESSE

Options/ Assumptions

^ eq{Yj(-)}

+
^ Y(-)

+
Minimum Error Variance Within Error Subspace (Sequential processing of Observations)

Gridded Residules ^ Y(+) ^ Y(+)

j=1

+
Error Subspace Initialization Perturbations

Y1 0 Yj
0

+
E0 P0

+ +/uj(o,Ip) with physical constraints

j=q

Yq
0

Scalable Parallel Ensemble Forecast

^1

^ Yj ^ Yq

+
E(-) P(-) +

+
+ SVDp

Normalization
Continuous Time Model Errors Q(t)

Key
Field Operation Assumption

Convergence Criterion Continue/Stop Iteration Breeding

Peripherals Analysis Modules

E(+) P(+)

Adaptive Error Subspace Learning

Ea(+) Pa(+)

crowley@marine.rutgers.edu

Simple Forecast Model What do people want to know?

^ DY0/N DE0/N Field Initialization Y0 DP0/N Central Forecast ^ Ycf(-)
Most Probable Forecast ^ Y mp(-)

ESSE Smoothing via Statistical Approximation

Performance/ Analysis Modules

Historical, Synoptic, Future in Situ/Remote Field/Error Observations d0R0

Sample Probability Density

Shootin g Select Best Forecast

Synoptic Obs

Measurement Model

A Posteriori Residules dr (+)

Measurement Model
Measurement Error Covariance

Mean
Ensemble Mean

Data Residuals ^ d-CY(-)

OA via ESSE

Options/ Assumptions

^ eq{Yj(-)}

+
^ Y(-)

+
Minimum Error Variance Within Error Subspace (Sequential processing of Observations)

Gridded Residules ^ Y(+) ^ Y(+)

j=1

+
Error Subspace Initialization Perturbations

Y1 0 Yj
0

+
E0 P0

+ +/j=q

Yq
0

Scalable Parallel Ensemble Forecast

^1

^ Yj ^ Yq

Key
Field Operation Assumption

uj(o,Ip) with physical constraints

Tomorrow it will rain

Normalization
Continuous Time Model Errors Q(t)

+
E(-) P(-) +

+
+ SVDp

As long as they know the basics.

crowley@marine.rutgers.edu

Convergence Criterion Continue/Stop Iteration Breeding

Peripherals Analysis Modules

E(+) P(+)

Adaptive Error Subspace Learning

Ea(+) Pa(+)

Dont be Such a Scientist:

- Randy Olson

1. Don't Be So Cerebral 2. Don't Be So Literal Minded 3. Don't Be Such a Poor Storyteller 4. Don't Be So Unlikeable

crowley@marine.rutgers.edu

Education & Public Engagement:

Simple Visualizations of data NO Matlab! Educators Concept Maps

crowley@marine.rutgers.edu

Education & Public Engagement: Making Tools for You

Sharing of data/ideas Lab/lesson builder for profs All integrated into one place
crowley@marine.rutgers.edu

Lets Change the face of Oceanography

crowley@marine.rutgers.edu

Spreading Science and Oceanography to the Full Spectrum of College Students

crowley@marine.rutgers.edu

Training Students & Professors & the Public

We cant build all the content

crowley@marine.rutgers.edu

Its going to take a village to raise this child

Educate the youth of today to make better decisions tomorrow

crowley@marine.rutgers.edu

Lofty Goal: A Diverse Science Savvy Nation

You know this, but knowing isnt doing

crowley@marine.rutgers.edu

Its up to us to teach the current and future generations

IOOS/OOI: Open science
Share your passion with us

Dont be such a scientist!

crowley@marine.rutgers.edu