Climate Change: A burning problem!

Presented by:

Surendra Bam

Outline
Introduction to climate change What changes climate? How do we know? Why should we care? What nextwhat can we do?
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Climate Change-Definition
Any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity (IPCC) Change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural variability observed over comparable time periods (UNFCCC)
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What changes climate?

Changes in: Suns output Earths orbit Drifting continents Volcanic eruptions Greenhouse gases

What changes climate? Contd

Suns output Energy output increased about 0.1% from 1750 to 1950, increasing temperatures by 0.1C in the first part of 20th century. But since 1979, when we began taking measurements from space, the data show no long-term change in total solar energy, even though earth has been warming. Earths orbit Repetitive cycles in Earths orbit that occur over tens of thousands of years can influence the angle and timing of sunlight. 5

 Drifting continents In the distant past, drifting continents make a big difference in climate over millions of years by changing ice caps at the poles and by altering oceans currents, which transport heat and cold throughout the ocean depths.
Volcanic eruptions Huge volcanic eruptions can cool earth by injecting ash and tiny particles into the stratosphere. Greenhouse gases Changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases, which occur both naturally and as a result of human activities.
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Greenhouse effect Increasing greenhouse gases trap more heat

Greenhouse gases

Nitrous oxide

Carbon dioxide
Methane

Water

Sulfur hexafluoride

How do we know?

Scientists learn about the past climate from such things as tree ring analysis, fossil evidence and analysis of patterns and chemical composition in coral skeletons and ice cores. 9

Present day observations

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Computer models

Computer model used to forecast weather, climate models simulate the climate system with 3-dimensional gird. It performs trillions of calculations that describe changes in 11 many climate factors in the grid.

Why should we care?

Model correctly identify that the warming is due to mans activities, and that projections of future warming are realistic. 12

Effects: Snow and ice

Grinnell Glacier, Glacier National Park 1900 and 2008

In Glacier National Park, there were 150 glaciers in 1850. Today, there are 26. 13

Effects: Increment of glacial lake

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Effects on precipitation

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Effects on precipitation

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Effects on precipitation contd

More water vapor held by a warmer atmosphere also lead to heavier rains and more snowfall. But as storm tracks shift, it can also mean some areas get drier. A 2004 study by the National Center for Atmospheric Research found that the percentage of Earths land experiencing serious drought had more than doubled since the 1970s.

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U.K.: Train rails buckle

Germany: Lowest river levels this century France: >14,000 deaths Switzerland: Melting glaciers, avalanches

Portugal: Forest fires

2003 European Heat Wave

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Impacts
AGRICULTURE Shift in food growing areas Changes in crop yields High irrigation demand Increased pest, crop diseases & weeds in warm areas BIODIVERSITY Extinction of some plant and animal species Loss of habitat Disruption of aquatic life WATER RESOURCES Change in water supply Decreases water quality Increased drought Increased flooding FORESTS Changes in forest composition and locations Disappearance of some forests Increased fires from drying Loss of wildlife habitat and species

SEA LEVEL Rising sea levels Flooding of low lying islands and coastal cities

WEATHER EXTREMES Prolonged heat waves and drought Increased flooding More intense hurricanes, typhoons, tornadoes & violent storms

HUMAN POPULATION Increased deaths More environmental refugees Increased migration

vHUMAN HEALTH
Increased death from heat and diseases Disruption of food & water supplies Spread of tropical disease to temperate areas Increased respiratory diseases Increased water pollution from coastal flooding
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Future Scenario
More CO means a warmer atmosphere. Global mean some regions 11C warmer (top), and 13C if (bottom). temperatures in would be 8C to if CO doubled

CO quadrupled

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IPCC estimate sea level rise ( High emission scenario)

Thermal expansion of seawater ........ 28 cm
Glaciers and ice caps ......................... 12 cm Mass balance .................................... - 3 cm Increased flow ................................... + 3 cm Total: 40 cm Range of Estimates: 18-59 cm
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Future Scenario contd

Global average temperature are expected to increase by about 1-7C by the end of the century. Four major changes prior to sea level rise. They are: Thermal expansion, mountain glacier melting, Greenland ice and Antarctic ice sheet melting.

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What nextwhat can we do?

Reducing our greenhouse gas emissions and our use of fuels will not be easy, but it double. 26

Contd.

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8 technologies that could avoid 8 wedges

Produce more fuel-efficient vehicles Reduce vehicle use Improve energy-efficiency in buildings Develop carbon capture and storage processes Triple nuclear power Increase solar power Decrease deforestation/plant forests Improve soil carbon management strategies
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Individual actions
Plant trees Use mass transit, bicycle, walk, roller skate Buy water-saving appliances and toilets; installing low-flow shower heads. Awareness programs

insulate, and replace old windows

Buy products with a U.S. EPA Energy Star label

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Let us stop blaming each other

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Let us help each other

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Bibliography
NASA Earth observatory, 2011 climate system. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report UNFCCC Report Santra, S.C.2005, Environmental Science, New central book agency, pg. 301-315 www. Google.com
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