HR Demand

Demand Forecasting Techniques: Index/trend analysis Expert forecast Delphi Technique Nominal group technique HR budget Envelope/ Scenario forecasting Regression analysis

Index/trend analysis
The historical relationship between an operational index and the number of employees required by the organization.
Five steps to conduct effective index /trend analysis1. Select the appropriate Business/ operational index 2. Track the Business/ operational index over time. 3. Track the workforce size over time. 4. Calculate the average ratio of the business/ operational index to the workforce size. 5. Calculate the forecasted demand for labour

Expert Forecast
Direct managerial input is the most commonly used method for determining workforce requirement. Using expert to arrive at a numerical estimate of future labour demand is considered to be a qualitative process .

Delphi Technique
A carefully designed program of sequential, individual interrogations interspersed with information feedback on the opinions expressed by the other participants in previous rounds. Six steps to conduct Delphi Techniquea. b. c. d. e. f. Define and refine the issue or question Identify the experts, terms, and time horizon Orient the experts Issue the first round questionnaire Issue the first round questionnaire summary and the second round of questionnaire Continue issuing questionnaire

Nominal Group Technique

Long run forecasting technique utilizing expert assessments. Seven steps to conduct Nominal Group Technique1. Define and refine the issue or question and the relevant time horizon 2. Select the experts 3. Issue the HR demand statement to the experts 4. Apply expert knowledge , state assumptions and prepare an estimate 5. Meet face to face 6. Discuss the demand estimates and assumptions 7. Vote secretly to determine the expert demand assessments

HR Budget
Quantitative ,operational or short run demand estimates that contain the number and types of personnel required by the organization as a whole and for each sub unit , division or department.

Envelope/ Scenario Forecasting Projections, or multiple predictor estimates of future demand for personnel predicated on a variety of differing assumptions about how future organizational events will unfold.

Regression Analysis
Presupposes that a linear relationship exists between one or more independent variables , which are predicted to affect the dependent variable in our instance future HR Demand for personnel.