MACRO ENVIROMENTAL FACTORS IN TURKEY

Ceyda Kocaman Meltem Kam Yamur Erdin

Our Agenda...
Start Political End

Economy

Technology

Demography

Nature

ECONOMY

Turkish Economy
Turkey is a centre of economic area between Europe, Sowiet Union and Middle east. Turkish history deals with great crucial crises. Turkish economy tries to achive with macroeconomic policies and tools.

Macroeconomic Aims

Increases Production High and Ever growing GDP

Decreases Unemployment High and sustainable employment Inflaton Adjustment Provide general level of price Balance Of Payment Balance of trade and current account and exchange rate

Macroeconomic Instruments Fiscal Policy Instruments Goverment Expenditure and Tax Monetary Policy Supply Interest rate anda Money

Income Policy Instrument

International Economy Policy Tarrif, Quata ,Exchange Rate

Key Macro Economic Indicators

GDP ( Gross Domestic Product)
Two types of GDP Nominal GDP : GDP evaluated at current market prices. Therefore, nominal GDP will include all of the changes in market prices that have occurred during the current year due to inflation or deflation. Reel GDP : GDP evaluated at the market prices of some base year. For example, if 1990 were chosen as the base year, then real GDP for 1995 is calculated by taking the quantities of all goods and services purchased in 1995 and multiplying them by their 1990 prices. GDP = C + I + G + X - M According to this relationship ;

 Two major crises since 1994, and the 2001

After 2001, Turkeys structral reform

The global cris started to in 2008 and a sharply decrease in GDP from 4,7 to 0,7. Not only change in Turkey but also OECD. GDP growth decreases from 2008 to 2009 in Turkey and OECD Crisis did not affect as much as OECD.

Trade Balance The difference between countrys import and export. Positive relationship between balance of trade and GDP. Turkeys export has increased tremendously over the past decade but it is not enough because also increas import rates. In 2009, export and import decreases because of global crisis.

 Turkeys export rate change under the OECD export changes

Effect of global crisis on investment in Tukey and OECD. Investment increases with policies. For example, When the Government decreases interest rate , investment ncreases.

Fiscal Policy How effect rate of GDP?

When goverment want to increase production level because of high and ever-growing GDP , goverment decrease taxes or increase goverment expenditure.

FDI ( Foreign Direct Investment )

The investment is direct because the investor, which could be a foreign person, company or group of entities, is seeking to control, manage, or have significant influence over the foreign enterprise. Important positive effects on a host countrys development effort. Bring certain benefits to national economies. Help stimulate employment, raise wages and replace declining market sectors.

 FDI decreases from 2008 to 2009. FDI ncreases from 2009 to 2010 in Turkey but not increase in OECD and EU

Unemployment Rate , Inflation and Exchange Rate Unemployment is problem developed and developing countries. Positive relationship economic growth and decreasing unemployment rate

Inflation Rate
Inflation may affect to employment. First measured by original Phillips Curve. Phillips found a consistent inverse relationship: when unemployment was high, wages increased slowly; when unemployment was low, wages rose rapidly. Macroeconomic models with sticky prices, positive relation between the rate of inflation and the level of demand, and a negative relation between the rate of inflation and the rate of unemployment.

Inflation rate increases from 2009 to 2011 in Turkey also employment rate increases from 2009 to 2010. In OECD, not only inflation rate increases but also unemployment because of global crisis.

Exchange Rate and Employment A relatively depreciated currency encourages exports and expenditure Import competing firms faced by an appreciation of the home currency face to lose their price competitiveness.

Turkey is more competitive than Euro Area because of depreciated currency.

Turkeys economic sitiuation in 2010 according to OECD

16th largest economy in the world and 6th largest economy compared with EU countries in 2010 (GDP at PPP, IMF-WEO). Robust economic growth over the last seven years with an average annual real GDP growth of 4 percent. GDP reached USD 736 billion in 2010, up from USD 231 billion in 2002. Sound economic policies with tight fiscal discipline. Strong financial structure resilient to the global financial crisis. Rapid recovery from the global financial crisis.

DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS

Employment Rate of Women

Employment rate of women % of female population (15-64)

Years 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Turkey 25 22 22 23 23 24 24 OECD 55 55 56 57 57 58 57
Some factors of Turkeys acceleration; Education level of women Cultural changing Modernizationgiving up traditional attitudes Increasing the percentage of employment rate of women between 2003-2010 years. In OECD countries, women employment rate up to %50 and increasing day by day.

2010

26

57

Why do women in Turkey work inactively?

Not flexible working hours Not eligible encouragement of women working Not being at enough education level Having a traditional mentality, such as woman-mother contrast business-woman

The roles ascribed to women in society

Low level of supporting programs of women working

Some other reasons...

The participation rate of women of working in urban areas ( 19.8 %) In rural areas ( 32.6% ).
In rural areas, womens working illegally. Migration and growing agricultural sector shrinking.

Impact of education level at women working in Turkey

Women Working Rate in Turkey
The possibility of women workingeducation level. Increasing possibility of entering this market skills gained in the proportion of women in the labor market demand

illiterate people in the labor force participation rate Not graduated from high school rate Graduated from high school rate Educated from university rate

16.9%

21.8% 30.4% 69.7%

Good Examples in OECD Countries

Provide equal career opportunities for women and men Busy men previously worked as a professional and easy to enter or be taken to ensure women in business areas Improved child care and elder care facilities to ensure women's entry into the job market more easily Especially in women after natal face with less problems about returning their jobs again. Female labor force participation and labor market along with the integration of women entrepreneurs

Importance of women working...

The effectiveness and enhancing the quality of women's labor force, Equipped with the knowledge and skills appropriate to the needs of the labor market Adaptation of the labor market are important competitiveness of the economy, production of quality goods and services.

WORKING HOURS

Average annual working time Hours per worker

The operating time of 45 hours higher than when compared with OECD countries. Rigidity of the labor market. Companies not tending to work new employees. Trying to save the tendency to run longer hours than the current workers. Taking the average working time in Turkey to the world average, a significant reduction in unemployment Less working hours, then more motivated workers, and more efficiency.

Turkey
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1943 1918 1936 1944 1911 1900 1881 1877

OECD
1785 1783 1782 1779 1773 1767 1741 1749

CRIME RATE

Prison population rate Number per 100 000 inhabitants

Turkey

OECD

1992
1995 1998 2001 2004 2009

54
82 102 89 100 155

100
111 119 124 133 140

Reasons of crime

Income level Unemployment rate The rate of immigration, education level Population density

demographic factors such as birth rate, important factors that determine the rate of urbanization is a crime has occurred.

MARRIAGE RATE

Proportion of respondents aged 15 and over by relationship status, 2010, percentages

The most common form of partnership across the OECD and also in Turkey Some reasons of why people generally prefer marriage in Turkey;

Turkey
Married Domestic partner

OECD 55 7

66 0

Single / Never been married

Widowed Divorced Separated

29 3
1 1

26 6
4 1

Culture Neighborhood pressure Ethical Rules Legal Assurance Having children

Population Levels

Population levels Thousands

Between 2008-2011, increasing population level Some reasons of increasing of population; Migration Employment opportunities Education opportunities etc. Birth rate Death rate Living conditions

The most crowded cities...

Istanbul (about 12.6 million), Ankara (about 4.5 million) Izmir (about 3.6 million).

Birth Rate in Turkey, % 51 boys, %49 girls

In Turkey, 2010, average age of mothers, 27.2

In-migration, out-migration,by statistical region

Life Satisfaction Survey

Life Satisfaction Survey of Turkey

Individuals in 2009, 54.3% of self-happy, 14.6% percent as the unhappy expression. In 2010, 61.2% of self-happy and 10.7% percent as the unhappy expression.

Happiness Levels in years

Reasons of happiness...
Being healthy ( 71.2%) Having a good family ( 70.9%) Being hopeful for future (72.8%) (women rate 72.9%, men rate 72.7%) Because of economical changes, in 2009 consuming cheap goods rate 60%, but in 2010 rate 54.2%.

Some different types of results...

Rate of women 62.7% in 2010 happy While the rate of men 59.6% happy. Level of education-level of satisfaction primary school education in 2010, rate of 60.5% while happiness, college or university graduates, rate of 67.7%. Married in 2010, 63.7% of the individuals happy, while the unmarried rate of 53.5% happy.

POLITICAL FACTORS

General informations about political systems of Turkey

Election of the president by the TBMM for a term of 7 years, while the members of the Parliament are elected for a 5-year period The Republic of Turkey has a tripartite legal system. Civilian and military jurisdiction is separated.

General informations about political systems of Turkey

The main executive body is the Council of Ministers, consisting of a Prime Minister and twenty five ministers. Independent Courts have the judicial power. Turkey is a secular state. The freedom of worship for all religions is protected under the Constitutional Law.

Current political administration and government structure

The current President of the Republic of Turkey is Mr. Abdullah Gul who was elected in August 2007. The current Prime Minister is Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdogan who was re-appointed after the general elections held in June 2010. He is the head of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) which has won nearly half of the Parliamentary majority in June 2010 elections.

Current topics in Turkeys Political Environment

Prohibition of smoking in closed areas Prohibition of sitting outside inpublic open areas, such as Asmali Mescid Prohibition of consumption of fizzy can beverages in schools.

NATURE

UNAVOIDEBLE SUBJECT:SUSTAINABILTY
Limited Sources Increased Population Heavy consumption and industrialization

SUSTAINABILITY and GOING GREEN

For consumers: Hybrid cars, compact fluorescent bulbs, composting, reusable shopping bags For businesses : eco-friendly strategies both to lower costs and to benefit the environment

SUSTAINABILITY and GOING GREEN

For consumers: Hybrid cars, compact fluorescent bulbs, composting, reusable shopping bags For businesses : eco-friendly strategies both to lower costs and to benefit the environment

Contribution of renewables to energy supply

* As a percentage of total primary energy supply

WHY TURKEYS PERCANTEGE IS HIGH?

RECYCLING PROJECTS AND MUNICIPALITIES

An associated project:Istanbul and Stockholm (Sweden) Enviroment Congress in Stockholm A week-long training 17 from Istanbul: Avclar, Zeytinburnu, Kadky All over Turkey: Tarsus, Konyaalt, Mamak..

Road infrastructure gross investment spending

*Current prices and exchange rates - million Euros

Rail infrastructure gross investment spending

*Current prices and exchange rates - million Euros
92-00 Turkey OECD 45 970 2001 50 1,229 2002 48 1,300 2003 86 1,386 2004 125 1,260 2005 169 1,264 2006 331 1,255 2007 270 1,342 2008 338 1,595

Airports infrastructure gross investment spending

*Current prices and exchange rates - million Euros
Turkey OECD 92-00 1,823 350 2001 147 627 2002 166 608 2003 145 558 2004 160 274 2005 381 307 2006 503 248 2007 124 266 2008 125 270

AIR
EMISSIONS OF PARTICULATES
EMISSIONS OF CO

2000
Mobile
Road Other

2001
11%
54% 46%

2002
11%
56% 44%

2003
11%
57% 43%

2004
12%
59% 41%

2000
Mobile
Road Other

2001
50%
99% 1%

2002
49%
99% 1%

2003
48%
99% 1%

2004
46%
98% 2%

10%
53% 47%

51%
99% 1%

Stationary
Power st.

90%
12% 61% 20% 41% 22% 4%

89%
13% 60% 20% 40% 23% 5%

89%
14% 58% 20% 39% 23% 5%

89%
15% 57% 19% 37% 23% 5%

88%
16% 55% 19% 36% 23% 5%

Stationary
Power st. Combustion Industrial Other Ind. proc. Divers

49%
1% 77% 3% 74% 1% 22%

50%
1% 77% 3% 74% 1% 21%

51%
1% 76% 3% 73% 1% 22%

52%
1% 76% 4% 73% 1% 22%

54%
1% 75% 4% 71% 1% 24%

Combustion
Ind Comb Other Comb Ind. proc. Divers

Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

TECHNOLOGY

E- Government
Turkey December, 2008 First and best user: Singapore,1997 (Role Model for other countries) First steps from Singapore 1981

Comparison
E-goverment Active Citizen E- communication Auto Voice-mail Auto data updates Private service Classical Goverment Passive Citizen Paper-based communication More labor force

Standart service

A new subject for Turkey: E-Bills

Completed Infrastructure Projects State agencies and privately helds Ex: Ministry of finance, Turkcell Turk Telekom s paper saving: 4200 tones per year

Gross domestic expenditure on R&D * As a percentage of GDP

2003
Turkey
OECD

2004
0.52
2.18

2005
0.59
2.21

2006
0.58
2.24

2007
0.72
2.28

2008
0.73
2.34

2009
0.85
2.41

0.48
2.21

2008 or latest available year

1999 or first available year

5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00

Brain Drain
Migration of the highly skilled from poor to rich countries In parts of sub-Saharan Africa and Central America, more than %50 university graduates OECD countries Threatens development

Brain Drain
*
Share of a country's nationals with a university degree living in an(other) OECD country

SOCIAL MEDIA
World: More than 800 million active users Turkey: 30,5 million #5 in the ranking