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Aggregate Planning

Operations Management Dr. Ron Tibben-Lembke

Learning Objectives

Describe planning Distinguish the types of plans Define aggregate scheduling Relate aggregate scheduling to the overall planning process Explain aggregate scheduling options Develop aggregate schedules

Example
Youve started a new company. Youve developed 2 production plans: Month Forecast Plan 1 Plan 2 Jan 900 900 800 Feb 700 700 800 Mar 800 800 800 You estimate 1 worker can make 100 units per month. Which plan do you use? How many workers do you hire? How do you meet demand?

Planning

Setting goals & objectives

Example: Meet demand within the limits of available resources at the least cost Example: Hire more workers

Determining steps to achieve goals

Setting start & completion dates

Example: Begin hiring in Jan.; finish, Mar.

Assigning responsibility

Types of Plans
Management Level
High Top Executives Long-Range Facility location Intermediate-Range Aggregate plans

Operations Managers Short-Range Low Dispatching


Today

Supervisors
1 year 18 months 5 years

3 months

Aggregate Scheduling

Production quantity & timing of production for intermediate future

Usually 3 to 18 months into future Expressed in common units

Combines (aggregates) production

Example: Hours, dollars, equivalents (e.g., FTE students) Time to make average product

Relationships of Aggregate Schedule


Forecast & Firm Orders Aggregate Production Planning Resource Availability Work force Inventory Subcontractors

Material Requirements Planning

Master Production Scheduling

No, modify CRP, MRP, or MPS Capacity Requirements Planning Shop Floor Schedules

Realistic?

Yes

Aggregate Level Scheduling


Aggregate Schedule: Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May No. of Chips 600 650 620 630 640

1995 Corel Corp.

Aggregate Schedule Example


Aggregate Schedule: Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May No. of Chips 600 650 620 630 640 Master Production Schedule: Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May P4 1.5 ghz 300 200 310 300 340 P4 1.7 ghz 300 450 310 330 300

Aggregate Scheduling Goals


Meet demand Use capacity efficiently Meet inventory policy Minimize cost

Labor Inventory Plant & equipment Subcontract

Aggregate Scheduling Options

Capacity

Demand

Inventory Hire or layoff Overtime or idle Subcontract Part-time workers Outsource

Promotion & price Back ordering Counterseasonal product mixing

Costs

Smoothing costs:

Hiring: advertise, interview, train Firing: severance, bad morale, future hiring

Holding costs - charged on inv At end Shortage costs Labor costs / overtime, materials Subcontracting / outsourcing

Aggregate Scheduling Strategies

Level scheduling strategy

Produce same amount every day Keep work force level constant Vary non-work force capacity or demand Often results in lowest production costs
Hire / Fire workers to make production capacity meet necessary production

Chase strategy

Aggregate Scheduling Strategies

Mixed strategy

Combines 2 or more aggregate scheduling options

Overtime

Price

Mixed Strategy
Inventory Subcontract

Aggregate Scheduling Methods

Graphical & charting techniques


Popular & easy-to-understand Trial & error approach Linear Programming Simulation More involved, but usually better answers

Mathematical approaches

JC Company p. 292

Materials Cost: $100/unit Labor: 5 hours per unit, $4/hr RT, $6/hr OT

Subcontract $20/unit ($120 - $100 matl savings) Holding cost $1.5/unit/mo Stockout cost $5/unit/mo Hiring cost $200 Firing cost $250 Starting inventory 400 units, safety stock 25%
Jan Feb 1,500 Mar 1,100 Apr 900 May 1,100 June 1,600

Demand Forecast 1,800

Exhibit 11.3

Goal of 25% of sales as safety stock For planning, assume safety stock never used
Jan 400 1,800 450 1,850 450 Feb 450 1,500 375 1,425 375 Mar 375 1,100 275 1,000 275 Apr 275 900 225 850 225 May 225 1,100 275 1,150 275 June 275 1,600 400 1,725 400

Beginning Inventory Demand Forecast Safety Stock (0.25*demand foreast) Production Requirement (Forecast+SS-Begin Inv) Ending Inventory

Hire and Fire, no OT: Plan 1


Jan Production Requirement (Forecast+SS-Begin Inv) Hours needed Days per month Hrs/mo/worker Workers needed Workers hired Workers Laid off Production Labor Cost $ Hiring Cost $ Firing Cost $ Feb Mar Apr May June 1,850 1,425 1,000 850 1,150 1,725 9,250 7,125 5,000 4,250 5,750 8,625 22 19 21 21 22 20 176 152 168 168 176 160 53 47 30 25 33 54 0 0 0 0 8 21 0 6 17 5 0 0 37,000 $ 28,500 $ 20,000 $ 17,000 $ 23,000 $ 34,500 $ $ $ $ 1,600 $ 4,200 $ 1,500 $ 4,250 $ 1,250 $ $ -

Labor cost = Hiring Cost = Firing Cost = Total

$ 160,000 $ 5,800 $ 7,000 $ 172,800

Start with workers needed for month 1 May have too many at end

Constant Workforce: Plan 2


Jan Starting Inv Production Req Work Days Work Hours Actual Production Demand Forecast Ending Inventory Shortage Cost Safety Stock Excess Inventory Holding Cost Labor Cost Holding Cost Shortage Cost 400 1,850 22 7,040 1,408 1,800 8 450 $ 160,000 $ 948 $ 1,540 $ 162,488 Feb 8 1,425 19 6,080 1,216 1,500 (276) 1,380 375 Mar (276) 1,000 21 6,720 1,344 1,100 (32) 160 275

Apr (32) 850 21 6,720 1,344 900 412 225 187 281

May 412 1,150 22 7,040 1,408 1,100 720 275 445 668

June 720 1,725 20 6,400 1,280 1,600 400 400 -

Total D = 8,000 units 5*8,000 = 40,000 hours 125 days total = 1,000 hrs 40,000/1,000 = 40 workers No penalty missing safety stock

Subcontract: Plan 3
Production Req. Work Days Work Hrs Actual production Subcontracted Subcontr. Cost $ Labor Cost $ Workers = Subcontr. Cost = Labor Cost = Total Cost = Jan 1,850 22 4,400 880 970 19,400 17,600 25 $ 60,000 $ 100,000 $ 160,000

Feb 1,425 19 3,800 760 665 $13,300 $15,200

Mar 1,000 21 4,200 840 160 $ 3,200 $16,800

Apr 850 21 4,200 840 10 $ 200 $16,800

May 1,150 22 4,400 880 270 $ 5,400 $17,600

June 1,725 20 4,000 800 925 $18,500 $16,000

April has lowest demand 21 days * 8 hrs = 168 850*5/168 = 25.3 workers Subcontract rest

Constant Workers with OT: 4


# workers Jan Work Days Work Hrs Reg. Production Dem Forecast Starting Inv Net Inv before OT Units OT Ending Inv Safety Stock Excess Inv Holding Cost OT Cost RT Cost Holding Cost = OT Cost = RT Cost = 38 June 22 19 21 21 22 20 6,688 5,776 6,384 6,384 6,688 6,080 1,338 1,155 1,277 1,277 1,338 1,216 1,800 1,500 1,100 900 1,100 1,600 400 177 554 792 (62) (345) 177 554 792 408 62 345 177 554 792 408 450 375 275 225 275 400 329 517 8 $ $ $ 494 $ 776 $ 12 1,860 $ 10,350 $ $ $ $ 26,752 $ 23,104 $ 25,536 $ 25,536 $ 26,752 $ 24,320

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

$ $ $

$ 1,281 $ 12,210 $ 152,000 $165,491

Find # workers to do all except biggest mos in RT Trial and error Not enough safety stock

Linear Programming Parameters


CH = hiring cost CF = firing cost CI = Inv. Cost CR = reg production CO = Ovt. Cost CI = idle cost CS = subcontract nt = days in period t K = daily prod. I0 = Inventory to start W0 = workers to start Dt = Demand for t

Variables
It = Inventory for t Wt = workers for t Ht = hired in t Ft = fired in t Pt= production for t All must be >= 0 Ot = Overtime Ut = idle time St = subcontracted

Constraints
Workforce conservation Wt = Wt-1 + Ht - Ft Units Conervation It = It-1 + Pt + St - Dt Production and workforce level Pt= K*nt*Wt + Ot - Ut Each of these must be satisfied for all t

LP Formulation
Min cH H t cF Ft cI I t cR Pt
t 1 n

cO Ot cU U t cS St s.t. Wt Wt 1 H t Ft Pt KntWt Ot U t I t I t 1 Pt St Dt for 1 t n for 1 t n for 1 t n

H t , Ft , I t , Ot , U t , St , Wt , Pt 0

LP Considerations

LP can be modified to include minimum inv. level each period Negative inventory can be allowed Care needed when rounding

Conclusion

Described role of aggregate planning Described types of plans Explained aggregate scheduling options Developed aggregate schedules

Chase, Level, and Hybrid Linear Programming

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