Co-benefits Measures for Stationary Sources

Dr. Badar Ghauri Deputy Chief Manager SUPARCO

Clean Air for Pakistan Training Course Addressing Climate Change through Better Air Quality Management October 26-28, 2009 Quetta, Pakistan

Outline
Overview of Energy in Asia Control Measures for Stationary Sources

Reference Scenario: World Primary Energy Demand

18 000 16 000 14 000 12 000 Mtoe 10 000 8 000 6 000

Other renewables Nuclear Biomass Gas

Coal

4 000
2 000 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Source: IEA, 2007 - World Energy Outlook 2006

Oil

Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of a century, with coal use rising most in absolute terms
3

Energy Mix in Asia

4000

3500

3000 million tons of oil equivalent

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

Oil
Source: BP Statistics 2008

Natural Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Hydro

Coal Consumption in Asia

Coal Consumption
1400 1200 million tons of oil equivalent 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1990 1995 China India 2000 Pakistan 2005 Total Middle East, 6.1 Total Africa, 105.9 Total Asia Pacific, 1896.2 Total S. & Cent. America, 22.4

2007 Coal Consumption

Total North America, 613.3

Total Europe & Eurasia, 533.7

By 2030, China and India would account for 57% of the worlds coal demand
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006

Reference Scenario: Share of China and India in the Global Coal, Oil and Power Capacity Growth, 2004-2030
100% 90%

80%
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Coal demand China and India Oil demand OECD (Org of Eco Cooperation & Dev.) Power Generation Capacity Rest of the world

Source: IEA. World Energy Outlook 2006

Chinas Oil Demand: Medium and High Economic Growth Scenarios

30 25 20

mb/d

15
10 5 0

2005 Demand in Medium Economic Growth

2015

2030 Additional Demand in High Economic Growth

Chinas 2 % point higher economic growth will bring in 2030 additional oil demand more than the growth from OECD

Electricity Generation in Asia

Electricity Generation
3500

3000

2500

terawatt hours

2000

China India Japan

1500

Pakistan Thailand

1000

500

0 1990 1995 2000 2005

Cumulative Power Sector Investment

3 500 3 000 billion dollars (2005) 2 500 2 000

1 500 1 000
500 0 OECD Pacific European Union United States

China

India Transition
Demand increase

Latin economies America

Capacity replacement
Source: IEA, 2007 - World Energy Outlook 2006

Huge investment ($5 trillion) is required in developing Asia, of which more than $3 trillion in China and $1 trillion in India
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Oil Consumption

Oil Consumption
1400 1200
million tons of oil equivalent

Total S. & Cent. America, 252

Oil Consumption

1000 800 600 400 200 0 Total North America, 1135 Total Asia Pacific, 1185 Total Europe & Eurasia, 949

Total Middle East, 293

Total Africa, 138

1965

1970

1975
China

1980

1985
India

1990

1995

2000

2005

Pakistan

10

Net Oil Imports

OECD North America EU

China
Japan

India
Rest of developing Asia Korea OECD Oceania 0 2 2005
Source: IEA, 2007 - World Energy Outlook 2006

6 8 10 Million barrels/day

12 2030

14

16

China sees the biggest jump in oil imports in absolute terms, import dependency reaching nearly 80% in 2030
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Natural Gas Consumption

Natural Gas Consumption
70 60 million tons of oil equivalent 50 40 30 20 10 0 Total Middle East, 269.4 Total Europe & Eurasia, 1040.1 Total S. & Cent. America, 121.1

2007 Natural Gas Consumption

Total Asia Pacific, 403.1 Total Africa, 75.2 Total North America, 728.9

1965

1970

1975

1980
China

1985
India

1990

1995

2000

2005

Pakistan

Chinas natural gas consumption grew 279% from 1997 to 2007 Share of Asias natural gas consumption grew from 11% in 1995 to 15% in 2007

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Energy Efficiency
OECDs average efficiency

1.0 0.8
Index (OECD = 1)

China

India

0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Coal-fired Power generation Iron and steel industry

Energy efficiency in China and India has generally improved in recent years, but it is still well below the OECD averages

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Stationary Sources: Standards

Although countries in Asia have Industrial Emission Standards in place, their implementation and monitoring is generally weak and needs to be strengthened Compliance to stationary standards is hindered by lack of access to resources allowing for investments in pollution control, low level of technology, nonavailability of trained personnel, and the unwillingness of management to invest in environmental protection Many countries have substantial number of small and medium-sized industries interspersed in residential areas making it more difficult to monitor and regulate these sources
NOX 5% Pb 0.2%

The Philippine Outsourcing Sampling Project showed: 49% of the 795 stacks reported failed the CAA standard for at least one parameter Sources firing heavy bunker fuel oil are exceeding the SO2 and PM emission limits Gensets (compression engines) are exceeding the NOx emission limit Solid fuel-fired units are exceeding the CO emission limit

CO 14.8%

SO2 51% PM 28.8%

% exceedance of parameters failed by the sources sampled

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Stationary Sources: Control Strategies (1)

While international roadmaps for vehicular emissions are in place, stationary sources standards are not readily available for comparison thus absence of roadmaps makes it difficult to promote stricter standards. With the exception of the UNEP GERIAP (which has ended), there are very few regional initiatives and programs on stationary sources compared to mobile sources which have resulted in lesser exchanges and policy-dialogues Reduction of air pollution from stationary sources in Asia are still mostly "end-of-pipe" treatments:
tightening emission standards for stationary sources, Mandatory use of clean fuel Monitoring and inspection systems Relocation of polluting industries

There is no comprehensive policy on fuels for stationary sources but there is an emerging trend on use of low-sulfur coal, specifically in China, but actions to reduce sulfur content of bunker oil are still largely absent and there are few regulatory or financial incentives for industry to invest in sulfur-emissions abatement

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Stationary Sources: Control Strategies (2)

Emissions trading pilot projects have been implemented in China but there are no indications that this will be a major control instruments for stationary sources in the next 5-10 years in Asia The availability of carbon financing through the CDM has created opportunity especially for stationary sources to accelerate industries acceptance of efficiency investments. This has sparked off:
Improved (base-line) monitoring of emissions Structural shifts to new, less energy-intensive industrial products Reducing the energy intensity of existing industrial production through process changes and optimizing industrial energy systems.

Although China, India, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia all increasingly rely on coal and oil for electricity, they have also all established national goals to increase renewable energy and improve energy efficiency.
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SO2 Control in China

In the 11th Five-year plan, SO2 emission reduction is the emphasis of air pollution prevention and control and states that the emissions of sulfur dioxide should be reduced by 10% by 2010 The three principal components of existing SO2 emissions control policy are: Pollution Levy System (PLS), which is based on the polluter pays principle Two Control Areas (TCA), is not an instrument like the pollution levy for affecting abatement behavior, but rather a means for prioritizing SO2 control efforts, designating the standards, and identifying cities and regions that should receive extra attention and resources from the national government Total Emissions Control (TEC) limits the polluters to discharge under a specified level and levies the charge when any pollution is discharged
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SO2 Control in China (Contd)

China has been engaged in sweeping energy policy reforms over the last two decades to promote energy efficiency and conservation. Measures taken include the following: reductions in fossil fuel subsidies; research, development and demonstration projects; a national information network with efficiency service and training centers; tax reforms; equipment standards; and special loan programs, among other initiatives. These measures represent emission savings equal to nearly the entire U.S. transportation sector, about 400 million tons per year.

Direct impact of biomass burning

Contribute to global warming Production of greenhouse gases Removal of CO2 sink (vegetation) Release of previously sequestered carbon within a short period of time Affect global radiation budget and climate through emission of particulates Cause tropospheric ozone production through emission of reactive gases Contribute to stratospheric ozone depletion through emission of methyl bromide Create regional and trans-boundary haze problems

Pakistans Case (Recommendations):

EPAs should facilitate industry and other stakeholders in implementation of control measures. EPAs can do this by entering into contracts with the industrial associations on the basis of longterm sector level environmental policies and environmental management plans. Cleaner Production Program (CPP) has prepared environmental management plans for 14 industry sectors. These plans can be used as basic documents for reaching to long-term understanding between EPAs and industry associations on reducing emissions EPAs should promote ISO 14000 certification among industry, NGOs, Transport Sectors, Vehicular Manufacturers. EPAs should monitor and apply pollution charges on polluters

THANK YOU