Prospects of Energy Trade With India

PROSPECTS IN PRESENT SITUATION

The surplus power available in Pakistan started decreasing and nearly balanced in FY 2004. From 2005, the deficit scenario started building up, which became severe in FY 2008-09. The situation is still continuing because despite best efforts, a wide gap between supply and demand is existing. The year-wise power balance scenario is depicted in next slide.
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DEMAND & SUPPLY POSITION (2001 2010) PEPCO (Including Export to KESC)
(All Figures in MW)

Year 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Computed Peak Demand 10459 11044 11598 12595 13847 15838 17398 17852 18583 18521 18930 20058

Corresponding Supply 10894 10958 11834 12792 12600 13292 12442 13637 13413 13163 14468 15062

Surplus/ Shortfall 435 -86 236 197 -1247 -2546 -4956 -4215 -5170 -5358 -4462 -4996
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Summary of Power Balances (MW)

PEPCO System
Year 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Jul -3458 -4059 -3202 -3209 -3734 -1478 -1609 1337 Aug -3331 -3973 -3219 -3392 -3936 -1729 -2261 386 Sep -4214 -4854 -4134 -4444 -3397 -2944 -3818 -1703 Oct -3683 -3970 -3400 -3592 -2093 -1912 -2844 -949 Nov -891 -1078 -375 -440 1207 847 13 1838 Dec -1767 -903 -1058 -651 897 1299 2377 2554 Jan -2771 -1746 -1930 -1458 228 -92 1002 1123 Feb -1791 -810 -903 -544 1073 858 1901 2185 Mar -3120 -2347 -2439 -2185 -709 -892 95 377 Apr -4015 -3289 -3394 -3183 -1394 -1535 -301 13 May -3777 -3081 -3249 -3078 -698 -613 1274 2187 Jun -4304 -3607 -3718 -3701 -1517 -1367 746 1410

Based on Generation Data as of 30-06-2012

Summary of Power Balances (MW)

Year 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Surplus/Deficit MW -891(min deficit) -810(min deficit) -375(min deficit) -440(min deficit) 1207 (max surplus) 1299 (max surplus) Surplus/Deficit MW -4304(max deficit) -4854(max deficit) -4134(max deficit) -4444(max deficit) -3936(max deficit) -2944(max deficit)

2018-19
2019-20

2377 (max surplus)

2554 (max surplus)

-3818(max deficit)
-1703(max deficit)
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Actual Power Supply Position 2010-11 All India

Period (2010-11) Requirement Availability Shortage (%)

Energy (MU) 861,591 788,355 73,236 8.5%

Peak (MW) 122,287 110,256 12,031 9.8%

Expected Power Supply Position 2011-12 All India

Period (2011-12)

Energy (MU)

Peak (MW)

Requirement Availability Shortage

933,741 837,374 96,367

136,193 118,676 17,517

(%)

10.3%

12.9%

FUTURE PROSPECTS OF ELECTRICITY TRADE

Pakistan needs power in future also. The economic viability of import of power from India depends upon its overall cost of energy. India is also facing power deficit. The sustainability of power supply needs to be ascertained.

WAY FORWARD
Prefeasibility study is required to; Assess the Surplus and Deficit power of the two countries and determine of quantum of energy that can be supplied. Identify possible locations for establishing interconnections between Pakistan and India. Examine:
Technically possible solutions for the grid connectivity of both countries (like, voltage level, AC or DC etc.) The term of contract for import of power. The security and stability of power supply issues.

An insight into possible tariff structure and its cost.

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Scope of Work Prefeasibility Study By World Bank

Assessment of potential for electricity trade keeping in view of current and future demand. Examine the power market structure, codes of electricity supply and existing legal framework. Developing methodology for implementation of transmission infrastructure. Explore technically and economically feasible interconnection options. Preliminary cost estimation and interconnection diagrams for feasible options.
Contd..
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Scope of Work Prefeasibility Study By World Bank

Assess the economic and commercial viability of the interconnection options identified. Identification of other key constraints such as ROW that may limit the practical implementation. Recommend 2-3 interconnection options to GoP. Identification of strategic issues and important risks of the recommended interconnections and bilateral trade through those. Assess and analyze the potential of private sector participation in energy trade. Recommend further studies and actions to be taken by GoP to further develop the recommended interconnection option.

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TECHNICAL DETAILS

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The NTDC Power Transmission System

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INTERCONNECTION ISSUES
The NTDC Transmission System is longitudinal which is Running parallel to Indian border from north to south. Interconnections are possible at various points. The interconnection voltage level depends upon the volume of energy to be transmitted.

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India , Pakistan AC Transmission Voltages The transmission voltages in Pakistan are

132 kV 220 kV 500 kV

The Indian system voltages are - 132 kV

220 kV 400 kV 765 kV
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Probable Interconnection Points

Batapur Lahore Ghazi Road Lahore Ghazi Road Lahore Sarfraz Nagar Sarfraz Nagar Kasur

at at at at at at

132 kV 132 kV 220 kV 132 kV 220 kV 132 kV

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Possible Interconnection Option For 200-500 MW

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Interconnection Problems with AC System

Both interconnected systems need to be operated at same frequency. If the system with shortage of power is operating at the lower frequency, the other system may refuse to synchronize with that system. Phase-shifting transformers are required to control the quantum of power flowing from one system to the other. Short circuit powers of the two systems get added which may be beyond the capacity of some of the switchyard equipment on both or 18 either side.

Interconnection Problems with AC System

The disturbance/fault on one system may disturb the other system. The above mentioned problems can be overcome by isolating a small portion of the receiving system and connecting it up-to the supply system. In this case the power flow will be fluctuating according to the demand of the isolated portion of receiving system.

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Approximate Costs
1. Back to Back Converter Station Cost = 2. 500 kV HVAC S/C = (Drake Conductor) 3. 500 kV HVAC D/C = (Drake Conductor) 250 MUS$ 0.30 MUS$/km 0.6 MUS$/km

4. 220 kV HVAC D/C = 0.22 MUS$/km (Twin Bundle Rail Conductor) 5. 132 kV AC D/C = 0.10 MUS$/km (Rail Conductor)

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Recommended Interconnection Option Due to problems associated with HVAC system, India has required interconnection through HVDC line. The voltage level for power upto 500 MW can be 220 kV. For higher power levels it should be 400 kV or higher.

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