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Rajdeep Chakraborti
The consumer can adopt the new product only once. There are only two types of customers: innovators and imitators Innovators are not influenced by either by the other innovators or imitators
It was also assumed that there are no other categories of customers except innovators and imitators
No repeat or replacement purchase has taken place The potential number of buyers remain constant One adopting unit will adopt only once The diffusion process was assumed to be binary in nature
Diffusion of innovation is independent of all other innovations Nature of innovation does not change over time WOM communication was assumed to exist within a particular country
BASS MODEL
Let, m= market potential or, market size p, q specify the shape of the curve and also indicate that how fast the adoption of the new product is expected to proceed Bass Model says that:
BASS MODEL
Where, p= probability/rate that an innovator will adopt the new product. It represents the intrinsic tendency of the innovators to adopt the product (coeff. of initial or external influence)
q= imitation coefficient. It represents the interpersonal communication between the innovators and imitators. It is also known as the coeff. of internal influence
BASS MODEL
BASS MODEL
The time when sales will reach its peak: t*= [1/(p+q)]*ln (q/p)
The action of the firms through its marketing mix affects every one in the same manner, though in Bass model it was assumed that innovators and imitators behave in different manner
1 and 2 represent the coefficients that indicate the percentage increase in the speed of diffusion that results from a 1% decrease in price and advertising respectively
P(t) and A(t) are the price and advertising in time t while P(t) and A(t) are the rate of change of price and advertising in time t respectively
Forecasting the maximum sales in terms of sales and time for the consumer durables. It is assumed that p and q have same value Pricing, advertising and product characteristics have an impact on the diffusion curve. Thus the generalized Bass model can be used to forecast these By predicting the future sales, Bass model helps to plan for the capacity that would be required to meet that demand.
For the international market, Bass model can be used to assess the diffusion curve To plan the timing of the introduction of innovation which is dependent on the diffusion of the primary innovation It can be used to plan the timing of introduction of successive innovations in which the successive innovations can cannibalize the previous innovation
CRITIQUE
The marketing variables which have possible impact on the adoption process have not been considered The model has considered aggregate probability of adoption by the innovators and the imitators and not at the individual level.
CRITIQUE
Bass model assumed that diffusion of innovation is independent of any other innovations, but it is not true always. As for example; Blue Ray discs and the Blue Ray software are dependent on each other
Bass assumed that the nature of innovation remains stationary over time. But successive innovation cannibalizes the old innovation. Ex: Microsoft Windows operating system
CRITIQUE
Bass has not considered the fact that the product and market characteristics do influence the diffusion. This limitation of Bass model was later rectified by considering p and q as the functions of product and market characteristics.
CRITIQUE
It was found that WOM does not remain restricted only within a country, it may flow across borders also. There can be other options available to the customers apart from innovators or imitators. These options like knowledge, awareness, action and indifference to the product, were not considered
REFERENCE
Bass Frank M.; A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables; Management Science; Vol 50, No-12, Dec 2004, p 1825-1832
New-product diffusion models; edt by- Mahajan Vijay, Muller Eitan and Wind Yoram; Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston; p 99-122
In Forecasting the Time of Peak It is Helpful to Know that a Peak Exists - Frank Bass