Change Drivers in Organization Development

Change Drivers environment globalism demographics technology information economics politics complexity

Competition !

Worker Impact lifelong learning adaptability/flexibility networking Organizational Response: self-loyalty paradigm shift new psychological contract decentralizing downsizing telecommuting virtual organization reengineering teamwork Learning Organization mergers/acquisitions Demands strategic alliances timeliness (JIT) target marketing efficiency out-sourcing speed temps quality innovation customized rate of change

They way it used to be 1- 4 employers 1- 2 careers 42-year working life lifetime job security

and now 6- 10 employers 3- 5 careers 50-year working life new psychological contract

The old psychological contract

Employer: I will provide secure employment (unless you really screw up) Worker: I will provide consistent & loyal work

The new psychological contract

Employer: I will provide you with an opportunity to bring value to the organization and keep you so long as you continue to bring value Worker: I will stay so long as I am provided what I need & dont find something better

Creative Destruction: slubber doffers, depaters, & toerags

Job Destruction Railroad (1920) Carriage makers (1900) Telegraph operators (1920) Cobblers (1900) Watchmakers (1920) Job Creation Airline pilots Medical technicians Engineers Computer programmers Professional athletes Electricians 232,000 1,380,000 1,850,000 1,290,000 77,000 711,000 0 0 38,000 <5,000 (1960) <5,000 (1920) 51,000 (1900) Employment Today 231,000 <5000 8,000 25,000 <5000 Employment Past 2,076,000 109,000 75,000 102,000 101,000

http://cpcug.org/user/jlacombe/terms.html

Environmental change drivers limited resources

only .5% of worlds available water is fresh & accessible 54% of available freshwater is currently being used by 6.1 billion people half the population lives in unsanitary conditions since 1950, the amount of irrigated land has tripled 70% of worlds drylands have soil degradation (over cultivated, overgrazed, improperly irrigated, erosion, monoculture, deforestation) decreased space for trash (200 million tons/day in US); 29 million T of hazardous waste each year ocean pollution (60 million gallons oil; Mississippi R has 4000 Sq. miles of dead water around LA and TX; toxic bacteria levels) 70% of worlds oceans are overexploited (90% reduction in tuna) global warming & flooding (1-3.5 C by 2100) decrease in biodiversity (by 2040 2/3 of all species extinct EPA)

The Technology change driver

What the takes the average person day to do now, took 3 days in 1950, in 1800, lifetime in 1600 1 1 month

In 1900 85% of workers were in agriculture (now 3%), in 1950 73% were in manufacturing (15%), now service & knowledge workers Moores Law: chip capacity double every 6 months while price stays the same current annual growth rate of Internet is 100% worldwide: 500m voicemail boxes, 110m fax machines, 600 email users, over 500 million computers worldwide artificial intelligence is expected to affect 60-90% of jobs, augmenting, displacing or eliminating workers in the next five years people in the industrial world will be doing jobs differently from the past 50 years with innovation, everything goes back to zero

Buy American-Owned
Alka Seltzer Alpo Dogfood Aim Toothpaste Baskin Robbins Icecream Bactine Antiseptic Ball Park Franks Bayer Aspirin Pic Pens, Lighter, Razor Burger King Capitol Records CBS Records Chesterfield Cigarettes Christian Brothers wine Diamond Stick Matches Dove Soap Dunlop Tires EverReady Batteries Eureka Vacuum Cleaners Firestone Tires Four Roses Whisky Frenchs Mustard Frigidaire Appliances Friskies & Might Dog food Glidden Paint Goodyear Tire & Rubber Good Humor Icecream Green Giant Vegetables Humpty Dumpty Magazine Hires Root Beer Hills Brothers Coffee Hungry Jack Pancakes Imperial Margerine Instant Potato Mix Indian Head Textiles Jenos Pizza Kelvinator Appliances Knox Gelatine Kool Cigarettes Keebler Cookies Libbys Fruits Lifebuoy Soap Magnavox Massey-Ferguson Tractors Maxell Tapes Michelin Tires Mr. Coffee Norelco Appliances Nescafe Coffee New Yorker Hotel Ovaltine Drink Mix One-A-Day Vitamins Panasonic Pearle Vision Center Pepsodent Toothpaste Pillsbury Cake Mix Nestle Quik Chocolate Mix Quasar Television Ray-O-Vac Batteries Rona Barrets magazine Seven Seas Salad Dressing Shell Oil Standard Oil Stouffer Frozen Foods Tappan Appliances Valium Tranquilizers Zig-Zag Cigarette Papers

Globalization the new marketplace

US has 280 million consumers, 330 in EC, billion in China Of the top 50 world banks, only three US banks hold 13-15th place 20-40% unsuccessful repatriation Increasing workforce diversification: one LA company conducted orientation in 17 languages African American purchasing power will increase 55% in each of next two decades cultural diversity demonstrates many ways to work and manage

Complexity the number of elements, their

interrelationships, and degree of change in either
Revenge effects: the best intended quick solutions often create more or worse problems long term Forecasting: strategic planning based on the past are probably useless in a turbulent and complex future Personality: some people are more creative, tolerant of ambiguity & risk, and adaptive to change Butterfly effect: small changes can have large and unexpected effects Computer simulations using systems theory are more capable of modeling complex systems Reengineering: increased role complexity, ambiguity, & overload, multitasking Constant change, growth, reorganization

Unemployment rates opportunities for relocation

1 billion workers are un- (150m) or underemployed worldwide by 2010 Asia will account for 60% of the worlds population 1999-2050 US adds about million workers each year

The changing workforce

20-30% of the elite skilled workforce changes jobs every year 69% believe it is acceptable to change jobs every 5 years 40% believe that for under age 30 should change jobs every 2-3 years 14% are proud of their company 30% remain loyal Working Woman identifies 32 desired family-friendly benefits Increased preference for flex, family and personal time and independence (alt scheduling by 25% employers) Southwestern Air receives 3,000 Institute of Personnel and Development, April 2000 online resume a month

Change Drivers Mergers & Acquisitions Avoid bankruptcy Prepare for privatization Reduce costs to remain competitive

Downsizing

Goals Reduce expenses (46%) Increase profits (32%) Improve cash flow (24%) Increase productivity (22%) Increase ROI (21%) Increase competitive advantage (19%) Reduce bureaucracy (17%) Improve decision making (14%) Increase customer satisfaction (14%) Increase sales (13%) Increase market share (12%) Improve product quality (9%) Advance technology (9%) Increase motivation (7%) Avoid takeover (6%) Wall Street Journal, 6-6-91

Demographic change drivers

60-70% of Boomers plans to work past age 65 (and 20+ hours/week in retirement) by 2050 18-31 million will be older than 85 25% of Americans 35-54 have saved <$5000 for retirement Generation X may get from 2% to 4% from Social Security Eurodescendants are declining globally, while Asian, Hispanic & African are increasing (90% of total growth) by 2020 mental illness will be the worlds most debilitating affliction People over 50 are fastest growing, have the greatest purchasing power, control half of our disposable income, and 75% of financial assets by 2050 21% of Americans will be post-1991 immigrants and their children 32 m Americans speak languages other than English between 1990-2020 people aged 65-74 will increase 74%

Vision: its not just imagining some future picture; its seeing and understanding the dynamic forces that shape that place and positioning yourself for the possibilities

Competition Globalism

Information Politics

Economy

Current Marketplace
Technology Demographics

Envisioned Future

Environment

Growth of the Knowledge Worker

The ability to learn faster than your competitors may be the only sustainable competitive advantage
--Arie de Geus, Head of Planning, Royal Dutch Shell

The weekly edition of the NY Times has more information than a person would come across in a lifetime in 17th Century England There has been more information produced in the last 30 years than the preceding 5,000 It takes 3-5 years for 50% of worker skills to become obsolete Japanese students receive 240 days/year compared with 180 US Japanese workers get 6x the training as US workers (300 hrs/6 mo) All information doubled about every 5 years; in some fields 6 months More Americans work in biotechnology than in the entire machine tool industry About 75% of a products cost is determined at the conceptual stage Developed countries spend 28-30% of GNP on knowledge