Uncertainties in Nuclear and Hazardous Waste Cleanup Max S.

Power
Washington Department of Ecology Nuclear Waste Program April 1, 2003

Two Ways To Be Protective

Transform substance from hazardous to non-hazardous
E.g. incineration, chemical treatment

Isolate substance from people and the environmental pathways to people

E.g. engineered land-fills, solidification to prevent leaching, geologic disposal

Bias for Newly-Generated Waste

Minimize hazardous waste generation Reuse and recycle as much as possible Treat to remove/reduce hazards Minimize volume of residuals Land disposal as a last resort
With lined facilities, leachate collection, etc

Bias for Waste Already Released to the Environment

Retrieve and treat Restore affected land and/or water to unrestricted use Treat residuals as newly-generated wastes

Contamination Removal
Case 1: Contamination Removed
Existing Risk

R i s k

Legal Risk Standard

Time

Bias Against Long-Term Management

A result of uncertainty
Uncertainty about performance of materials Uncertainty about durability of engineered structures Uncertainty about durability and performance of human institutions

Underlies both unrestricted use for contaminated sites and deep geologic disposal for hotter nuclear waste

Removal + Barriers and Controls

Case 2: Contamination Removed + 1C & PC
Existing Risk

R i s k

+ Physical and Institutional Controls

Legal Risk Standard

Time

Barriers & Controls

Engineered barriers
Liners and caps Slurry walls, permeable barriers, grout, cryogenics

Institutional controls
Access restrictions Use restrictions
E.g. deed restrictions, zoning, covenants, easements, drilling and digging prohibitions

What Can Be Done When . . .

It is not technically and/or economically feasible to transform the material? It is not technically and/or economically feasible to retrieve all the hazard and treat and isolate it?

Attenuation
Rely on physical/chemical processes
E.g. radioactive decay, chemical oxidation Depends on adequate characterization and understanding of processes

Monitor and wait, while relying on barriers and controls

Controls + Attenuation
Case 3: Controls until risk attenuates naturally
Existing Risk

R i s k

Institutional & Physical Controls

+ Physical and Institutional Controls

Legal Risk Standard

Time

Controls Fail before Attenuation

Case 4: Controls fail before risk attenuates
Existing Risk

R i s k

Institutional & Physical Controls

Legal Risk Standard

Time

Physical Barriers
Limited evidence on long-term performance Regulations assume limited life (e.g. 30 years in RCRA) Note: Our civilization uses barriers to keep people out of bad things; ancient civilizations used them to keep people out of treasure troves

Institutional Controls
Again, limited information on long-term performance But the picture isnt good. Zoning, deed restrictions (cf. Love Canal) are ephemeral Courthouses burn down. National Research Council Committee: ICs will fail.

Reduce These Uncertainties By . . .

Providing informationand keeping it upto-date Revisiting past actions and monitoring performance Providing resources to support these activitiesand to respond if barriers or controls fail Giving future people a stake

. . .and. . .
Redundancy, redundancy, redundancy
Information stashes Accountable parties Interested parties

. . . Or . . .
Deep geologic isolation
Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (New Mexico) for transuranic wastes Yucca Mountain geologic repository

Note other past ideas

Deep seabed/subduction zone Space ejection

Uncertainties Remain
But shift from concrete to calculational Numerical results of analyses extending to geological times, if presented without sufficient discussion of their significance, lead understandably to accusations of overoptimism, hubris, or even irrationality.
Relative Contribution of Waste Isolation Barriers
Percent of Capability 100% Yucca Mountain Repository
1999 DOE Data

99.7%
80%
Waste Package

60%

40%

20%
Spent Fuel Cladding Yucca Mountain Overburden Yucca Mountain Geology

0%

0.2%

0.09%
Barrier Type

0.008%

Source: DOE Presentation to NWTRB, 1/25/99

For Additional Information

Washington Department of Ecology at:
http://www.ecy.wa.gov/ecyhome.html

Max Power at:

mpow461@ecy.wa.gov