Exploring Future US Army Roles in the Security of Southeastern Europe

MAJ Greg Stephenson 19 JAN 06

Chapter 1 (Introduction)
Purpose- Explore future roles for US Army
Issues- Ethnic tensions, territorial disputes, potential for violence Problem- Armed conflict in 90s led to international intervention, US Army presence remains to date

Chapter 1 (Introduction)
Research Questions
Primary- What role might the US Army play in the future security of southeastern Europe? Secondary #1- What are the implications from strategic documents, policies, and plans? Secondary #2- What are the implications of US signed treaties, alliances, and agreements?

Chapter 1 (Introduction)
Assumptions
Potential for future violence exist

US Army remains integral part of US military instrument of national power in the area If a future situation in the area requires military intervention the US will participate

Chapter 1 (Introduction)
Scope- Utilizations for the US Army in the area
Limitations- Focused on the following states: Bosnia & Herzegovina, Serbia & Montenegro, Macedonia, Croatia, Slovenia, and Albania Delimitations Associated border states such as: Bulgaria, Greece, and Turkey Utilizations for the entire US military establishment Significance Reference points for Army planners Examine opportunities for economy of force

Chapter 1 (Introduction)
Background
1389 Battle of Kosovo Balkan Wars I & II WWI WWII Josip Tito Death of Tito

Background
Breakup of Yugoslavia Slovenia War Croatia War Bosnia War Kosovo War Macedonia Conflict Current Status

Chapter 2 (Literature Review)

Source Materials
Documents, Policies, Plans
NSS, NDS, NMS Army Strategic Planning Guidance FOUO Document (Distribution Statement B) State Department (Ambassador Burns & Fact Sheet)

Chapter 2 (Literature Review)

Source Materials
Treaties, Alliances, Agreements
UN Charter NATO Alliance Dayton Accords IFOR SFOR EUFOR KFOR

Chapter 2 (Literature Review)

Books
Balkan Tragedy (Susan Woodward) Balkan Ghosts (Robert Kaplan) War in the Balkans 1991-2002 (Craig Nation) Yugoslavia: Death of a Nation (Silber & Little) The Fall of Yugoslavia (Misha Glenny) Winning Ugly (Daddler & OHanlon)

Chapter 2 (Literature Review)

Articles The Balkans: 10 Years After Back to the Balkans EUFOR-1A Serbias U-turn Staying the Course Debate: Balkans Radical Restructuring

Articles Analysis: Integration & Disintegration Soft Security Threats Macedonia: End of the Beginning or Balkans Lethal Nationalism

Chapter 3 (Methodology)
Step 1- Identification & Isolation of the Problem
Whats the question, why is it important Larger implications, context of prior works

Step 2- Development of Hypothesis

Strategic focus, limited to US Army Real world question given deployed forces No preconceived notions, multiple source types

Chapter 3 (Methodology)
Step 3- Collection & Classification of Sources
Collection
Strategic (NSS), Organizational (NATO) Theoretical (Scholarly Journals), Historical (Books)

Classification
Credibility Suitability Feasibility

Chapter 3 (Methodology)
Step 4- Organization of Facts into Results
Matters of policy (NDS) Matters of agreement (UN Charter) Matters of history (SFOR troops levels over time)

Chapter 3 (Methodology)
Step 5- Formation of Conclusions
Goal (To achieve valid and supportable conclusions) Process (Analysis of Collection & Classification of sources and Organization of facts into results Summary
Collect, classify and test sources Identify, organize and analyze facts Apply results

Chapter 3 (Methodology)
Step 6- Synthesis and Presentation
Purpose- Incorporating findings into answering the research questions Technique Chapter 4 (Analysis)- Answer primary question first, then secondary questions Chapter 5 (Conclusion)- Summary of analyses, larger look at meaning, assess research process, recommendations for future study

Chapter 4 (Analysis)
Purpose- To answer the research questions
Present findings Answer the primary question (TBP) Answer the secondary questions (TBP)

Chapter 5 (Conclusion)
Purpose of research- To explore future roles for the US Army in southeastern Europe Summary of findings (TBP) Larger look at meaning of results (TBP) Assess research process (TBP) Recommendations for future study (TBP)