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Chris W Smith, Lucy Baker and Jacqui Jones (Office for National Statistics)
Introduction
Important to make the distinction between population base at enumeration and population base at output Two choices of population base at enumeration:
Usual Residence Population Present
Usual Residence used in 2001 - what base, or bases, should be used in 2011?
Past UK censuses
In planning 2011 census, it is vital to:
Evaluate advantages and disadvantages of bases used in the past Take note of why each base was chosen.
Population present traditionally used by census, at both enumeration and output, from 1801-1971
1931 Onwards: Some statistics produced by asking usual address 1981: Clear that users needed more information based on usual residence 2001: Usual residence sole population base for enumeration
1981 Census
Two bases of enumeration: usual address, and where individuals spent census night Three population counts:
One of population present Two of usually resident:
Census transfer method Present/absent method (lower count)
Transfer method only transferred back to the area of usual residence, so household analyses did not include people away from usual residence on census night.
1981 Census
Some causes of under-counting:
People wrongly left off census forms Enumerators classifying as absent a household with someone present
1991 Census
Again, both usual residence and population present used as enumeration bases. 1981 counts considered to be too complicated attempts were made to simplify counts:
Transfer method not used Present/absent base was improved upon.
1991 Census
Despite changes, people were still being wrongly omitted. Problems identified were:
Confusing instructions on the census questionnaire on who to include Wholly absent households not legally obliged to complete a questionnaire Some people who were away from their usual residence filled in two questionnaires.
2001 Census
Data collected for the first time solely on a usually resident basis Only one count produced, adjusted for underenumeration No substantive information collected from visitors Disadvantages:
Respondents need a very clear understanding of what usual residence is Not everyone would feel that they have a usual residence.
Changes in society
We need to recognise that society is changing:
More diverse employment patterns More weekly commuting More dissolved households/marriages Children shared between parents Pensioners spending part of the year abroad
What does usual residence mean to different individuals? What really constitutes a household? What data is needed for planning service areas with large daily fluctuations, such as commuter areas?
Changes in society
Definitions need to be relevant to contemporary society:
Household size is falling Census vital in providing accurate and comprehensive data on old people Effects of EU enlargement may have an as yet unknown effect on population structure as migration increases and the workforce becomes even more mobile
Definitions of usual residence must include alternative patterns of living without compromising the majoritys understanding Definitions must be as simple as possible.
Demands for counts based on usually resident outweigh any other Persons present counts are commonly requested, often to be used as comparator for the usual residence data rather than as a base in its own right.
Some bases may be better conveyed by surveys or administrative sources (e.g. The Labour Force Survey)
Conclusions
The choice of enumeration base for the 2011 census is complex ONS need to ensure that user needs can be met with the chosen base or bases a consultation document was recently produced Testing and research will allow informed decisions to be made The 2011 Census should ensure high coverage, and produce statistics that are accurate and relevant.
Seven LA representatives Four Central Government representatives Two Academic representatives Three ONS representatives