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Sajjad Mubin
6.1 ACTIVITY DEFINITION 1. Inputs 1. Enterprise environmental factors . 2. Organizational process assets 3. Project scope statement 4. Work Breakdown structure 5. WBS Dictionary 6. Project management plan 2. Tools and Techniques 1. Decomposition 2. Templates 3. Rolling wave planning 4. Expert judgment 5. Planning component 3. Outputs 1. Activity list 2. Activity attributes 3. Milestone list 4. Requested changes
6.2 ACTIVITY SEQUENCING 1. Inputs .1 Project scope statement .2 Activity list .3 Activity attributes .4 Milestone List .5 Approved change requests 2 . Tools and Techniques .1 Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM) .2 Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM) .3 Schedule network templates .4 Dependency determination .5 Applying leads and lags 3. Outputs .1 Project schedule network diagrams .2 Activity list (updates) .3 Activity attributes (updates) .4 Requested changes
6.3 ACTIVITY RESOURCE ESTIMATING 1. Inputs .1 Enterprise environmental factors .2 Organizational process assets .3 Activity list .4 Activity attributes .5 Resource availability .6 Project management plan 2. Tools and Techniques .1 Expert judgment .2 Alternatives analysis .3 Published estimating data .4 Project management software .5 bottom-up-estimating
3. Outputs .1 Activity resource requirements .2 Activity attributes (updates) .3 Resource breakdown structure .4 Resource calendars (updates) .5 Requested changes
6.4 ACTIVITY DURATION ESTIMATING 1. Inputs .1 Enterprise environmental factors .2 Organizational process assets .3 Project scope statement .4 Activity list .5 Activity attributes .6 Activity resource requirements .7 Resource calendars .8 Project Management plan . Risk register . Activity cost estimates 2. Tools and Techniques .1 Expert judgment .2 Analogous estimating .3 Parametric estimating .4 Three-point estimating .5 Reserve analysis 3. Outputs .1 Activity duration estimates .2 Activity attributes (updates)
1. Inputs
.1 Organizational process assets
.2 Project scope statement .3 Activity list .4 Activity attributes .5 Project schedule network diagrams .6 Activity resource requirements .7 Resource calendars .8 Activity duration estimates .9 Project management plan . Risk register
6.6 SCHEDULE CONTROL 1. Inputs .1 Schedule management plan .2 Schedule baseline .3 Performance report .4 Approved change request 2. Tools and Techniques .1 Progress reporting .2 Schedule change control system .3 Performance measurement .4 Project management software .5 Variance analysis .6 Schedule comparison bar charts 3. Outputs .1 Schedule model data (updates) .2 Schedule baseline (updates) .3 Performance measurements .4 Requested changes .5 Recommended corrective actions .6 Organizational process assets (updates) .7 Activity list (updates) .8 Activity attributes (updates) .9 Project management plan (updates)
Content of Presentation
WBS/ Activity Definition Use of software for planning, Estimation scheduling & control of projects o [Purpose of Estimation o Process overview o Factors influencing Estimates o Software application o Methods of Estimation o Problems in Estimation o EVMS o Accuracy in Estimation o Importance of Accurate Estimates Scheduling (Planning and Scheduling) o Objectives o Techniques
o
Basic Definition of CPM Activity Activity Duration Network Construction Example 1 Resource Histogram Constructing Resource histogram
Histogram
o o
Example
The WBS consists of different levels where level one is the least detailed level often representing the entire project. The number of activities in the WBS grows quite rapidly and it is not unusual that a large construction project is broken down into several hundreds of activities. There is no specific rule about which level of detail a WBS should have but a low level of detail may result in insufficient detail for effective planning, whereas a too high level of detail may become unmanageable and increase planning costs. It is generally the case that the WBS is poorly detailed rather than too detailed. According to Jackson (2004) the level of detail should correlate with the control level desired, i.e. to have enough activities and just the right amount of detail so that the workflow effectively can be monitored and managed.
A proposed WBS for an infrastructure project (multi-storey building project).
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involved in a project that defines the total scope of the project WBS is a preliminary document that provides the basis for planning and managing project schedules, costs and resources Decomposition is subdividing project deliverables into smaller pieces A work package is a task at the lowest level of the WBS
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USEFULNESS OF WBS
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Estimation
An estimate is a calculation of the quantities of various items of work, and the
expenses likely to be incurred there on. The total of these probable expenses to be incurred on the work is known as estimated cost of the work. The estimated cost of a work is a close approximation of its actual cost. The agreement of the estimated cost with the actual cost will depend on accurate use of estimating methods and correct visualization of the work, as it will be done. Importance of correct estimating is obvious. Under-estimating may result in the client getting an unpleasant shock when tenders are opened and drastically modifying or abandoning the work at that stage. Over-estimating may lose the engineer or estimator his client or his job, or in any case his confidence.
Estimating is the most important of the practical aspects of Project
management, and the subject deserves the closest. It is a comparatively simple subject to understand; however, as it brings one up against practical work, methods and procedure, knowledge of it cannot be acquired without close application.
Estimation
Planning requires estimation early-on, even though it is likely this
commitment will be proven wrong. Some degree of uncertainty is unavoidable when predicting into the future. Solid techniques and concrete procedures help reduce the inaccuracy of estimates .
Definition of estimating
To form an approximate notion of the amount, number, magnitude or position of anything, without actual enumeration or measurement.
Oxford English Dictionary
Purpose of Estimating
1. Estimating Materials
From the estimate of a work it is possible to determine the quantity of materials required to complete work as per scope of project and WBS.
2.
Estimating Labor
The quantity and type of workers (man hours) of different categories required to complete the work in the specified time. To give a reasonably accurate idea of the cost An estimate is necessary to give an accurate idea of the cost of work as per scope and WBS.
3.
4.
Estimating Time
The estimate enable to estimate the time required to complete an item of work or the work as a whole as per scope and WBS. Time estimates are used in scheduling work, assigning resources and determining delivery dates.. Estimation of cost, materials, labor and time is immensely useful in planning, execution and control of any work.
Problems in Estimation
a) There is no established project estimation process.
d) There is no ability to track actual project performance, which can be used to refine estimates.
e) The project planners are inexperienced.
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Accuracy in Estimate
Component Range,% Direct Cost Engineering (Design) Equipment Instrument and Control Piping Electrical Equipment Installation Construction (building, found) Indirect Cost Service facilities Misc. Total Direct & Indirect Cost
MOL, %
8-15 % 2-5%
7.4%
3.74% 5% 100 %
Description of Items 1 2 3 Major Equipment Pricing Bulk Material Quantification Bulk Material Pricing 15% 30% 20%
4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
25%
5% 20% 15% 5% 10% 15% 10% 5% 5% 11% 23%
40%
20% 25% 20% 8% 10% 18% 15% 15% 8% 9% 13%
Estimation Method
1. Rough Estimate
Various researchers have developed various relationships between the cost and maximum output capacity of a process plant.
Ex Cx Ck . Ek
where Cx = Cost of plant and/or equipment item of size Ex Ck = Known cost of plant and/or equipment of size Ek N = Cost capacity exponent
2. Detailed Estimate
Process of identifying all the activities necessary to successfully complete the project is called project planning.
Project Scheduling:
Process of determining sequential order of planned activities, assigning realistic duration, to each activity and determining start and finish dates of each activity is called project scheduling. Project planning is prerequisite to project scheduling because there is no way to determine the sequential order of activities until they are identified. However, the terms planning and scheduling are often used synonymously because they are performed interactively. E.g. when some schedule is reviewed, it may be decided that additional activities may be added or rearranged in order to get the best schedule of events of projects.
(including management). Knowledge of distribution of costs of project. Accountability of people / defined responsibility and clear understanding of who does what, when and how much. Exploitation and optimum use of resources.
allocated, or excess budget being set aside for the project when it could be used for other projects.
If the cost or benefits estimates are inaccurate this can lead to
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Bar Chart
Bar Chart was developed by Henery L. Gantt in 1917, which is the most common planning tool even now and provided basis for developing planning and
scheduling software. Bar Charts are the easiest and most widely used form of scheduling in project management. Even with other scheduling techniques the eventual schedule is presented the form of a bar chart. A typical Bar chart is a list of activities with the start, duration and finish of each activity shown as a bar plotted to a time scale. The level of detail of the activities depends on the intended use of the schedule. The most commonly used bar chart for engineering works is called Gantt chart. A Gantt chart is a type of bar chart that illustrates a project schedule. Gantt charts illustrate the start and finish dates of the terminal elements and summary elements of civil engineering project. Terminal elements and summary elements comprise the work breakdown structure of the project. Some Gantt charts also show the dependency (i.e. precedence network) relationships between activities. Gantt charts can be used to show current schedule status using percent-complete shadings. Gantt charts have become a common technique for representing the phases and activities of a project work breakdown (WBS), so they can be understood by a wide audience all over the world.
gives minimum overall duration to complete the project. CPM calls attention which activities must be completed before other activities can begun.
foundation design, contract document, RCC form work, pouring of concrete. Network:- A diagram to represents the relationship of activities to complete the project. Duration:- The estimated time required to perform an activity. Early Start (ES):- The earliest time an activity can be start. Early Finish (EF):- The earliest time an activity can be finished. Late Finish (LF):- The latest time an activity can be finished. Late Start (LS):- The latest time an activity can be started without delaying the completion of project. (LS = LF D) Total Float (TF):- The amount of time an activity may be delayed without delaying the completion date of project. Mathematically, TF = LF EF = LS ES. Critical Activity:- If total float for an activity is zero, activity is called critical activity. Critical path is a longest path in terms of time unit in a network, which gives minimum overall duration to complete the project.
Activity
A common technique used to understand and organize complex undertaking is to break the project into smaller pieces. This technique is used both planning and estimating. Each activity is a discrete task. Activities should be only be specified as per level of management. The number and detail of listed quality will vary from job to job and depend on the intended level of control. Usually for planning purposes activity doesnt exceed from 25 days, if exceeds may be divided into further components. The activities must have four characteristics.
1. 2. 3. 4.
Time consumption: An activity must consume time. Use of resources: An activity usually consumes Labour, Material or Equipment resources. Definite Start and Finish time: An activity represents a definite scope of work i.e. Starting and Ending point in time. Activities are measurable. The progress towards completion of activitys scope of work must be measureable.
Activity Duration
One of the most important steps in planning a project is estimating the
time required to complete each activity. The duration of each activity is a function of quantity of work and work production rate. Work production rates are based on planned composition of labor and equipment used to perform the task. Careless estimates of production rates may cause un economical use of personnel, materials, equipment and time.
When the project bid estimate is prepared, the estimator calculates the
quantity of material that must be put in place and assumes a production rate to get the cost of each work, which is based construction method and technique. The bid preparation information can be served as the tool for calculating g an activity duration.
All Activities in a schedule should have same unit of time, which may
Example
In estimating a three storey office building, it was determined that 480 light fixtures would be installed on each floor. The production rate of two fixture per man hour may be used for installation. The company has five electrician. The normal working day will be 8 hours. What will be the duration (in days) to install all lights in the building.
SOLUTION: Production Rate: 2 fixture x 5 electrician = 10 fixtures per man hour 1-man hour Activity Duration = 480 fixture x 3 floors = 144 hours 10 Activity Duration = 144 hours = 18 day 8 hours
Network Construction
The performance of a task required to complete the project. Activity must have a specific duration except the dummy activity, having zero duration. Each activity is represented as can arrow or node. Arrows are not drawn according to scale. The brief description about activity is written over arrow or node. Duration (hours, week, months) to complete that activity is written under the arrow, where 1 and 2 are the event. Which are written inside the circles or boxes. The starting event is masked at the tail and finish event at the head of the arrow. Rules: 1. Each activity should be represented by a separate arrow. 2. The arrow may be straight or inclined lines. 3. Dummy activity should be represented with dotted lines. 4. Critical path must be shown clearly with double line. 5. Intersection of activity is not allowed. 6. Boxes are provided for event times (ES, EF, LS, LF) 7. EST is some reference time, normally EST = 0 at the start of the project / work. EFT = EST + Duration. 8. Each activity is followed by a predecessor and successor except start and finish activities. Any starting activity must have predecessor none, or finish activity must have no successor.
Example 1. CPM
Activity 1. Construct AOA network 2. Find ES, EF, LS and LF of all activities 3. Find total float of all activities (days) 4. Find the project duration (days) 5. Mark critical path on the network Duration (days) Events Preceding Activity (Predecessor)
A B C D E F G H I
4 6 8 10 5 7 12 8 3
12 23 24 36 35 45 67 57 78
None A A B B C D E, F G,H
Example 2. CPM
1. Construct AOA network 2. Find ES, EF, LS and LF of all activities 3. Find total float of all activities (days)
Activity Duration Predecessor Resource
4. Find the project duration (days) 5. Mark critical path on the network
Remark
O N
8 3
None O
10 2
M
L K J I H G F E D C B A
13
7 12 3 10 8 6 20 16 8 4 5 3
N
O O K L L H,M I I J G, E F B, C,D
5
15 8 4 3 10 8 4 6 4 20 6 3
Example 3. CPM
1. Construct AOA network 2. Find ES, EF, LS and LF of all activities
Activity
Find total float of all activities (days) 4. Find the project duration (days) 5. Mark critical path on the network
(EF) (LS) (LF) (TF) Remark
Q P O N
8 10 7 6
None Q Q O
5 6 10 2
M
L K J I H G F E D C B A
9
5 4 7 9 20 12 9 20 11 7 7 3
Q
M O L, K L, K P H N N I E, J G, F B, C,D
5
15 8 4 3 10 8 4 6 4 20 6 3
Example 3. CPM
1. Construct AOA network 2. Find ES, EF, LS and LF of all activities 3. Find total float of all activities (days) 4. Find the project duration (days) 5. Mark critical path on the network 6. Resource Histogram
Solution: Critical Path = Q P H G B A, Project Duration = 60 days 2nd Path = Q O N F B A, Duration = 40 days 3rd Path = Q O N E C A, Duration = 51days 4th Path = Q O K J C A, Duration = 36 days 5th Path = Q O K I D A, Duration = 42 days 6th Path = Q M L J C A, Duration = 39 days 7th Path = Q O K I D A, Duration = 45 days
Histogram
A histogram is a graphical data analysis technique for summarizing the distributional information of a variable. The response variable is divided into equal sized intervals (or bins). The number of occurrences of the response variable is calculated for each bin. The histogram consists of: Vertical axis = frequencies or relative frequencies;
Resource Histogram
It is a graphical
representation of time on X-axis and resources on Yaxis. in which resource requirements, usage, and availabilities are shown against a time scale. The personnel, equipment, materials, and services needed to complete tasks in a project are resources.
Labor Resource Histogram Material Resource Histogram Equipment Resource Histogram Cost Histogram
In these resource histograms time is taken on x axis and the resource is taken on y axis. For a construction project total resources are mentioned according to that particular time these histograms also help us to calculate cost for a particular resource of a project at a particular time because resource can be converted in terms of cost.
ES 0 6 6 6 14 11 11 11 14 23 35
EF 6 26 11 14 24 35 19 23 20 33 53
LS 0 15 6 17 25 11 45 31 37 43 35
LF 6 35 11 25 35 35 53 43 43 53 53
float 0 9 0 11 11 0 34 20 23 20 0
D C C C B, F E, H G, I, J
process which must be accomplished in time to assure completing project objectives on schedule. PERT is an inherent planning technique forces the manager to develop a comprehensive plan and allows realistic scheduling. The procedure for monitoring, forecasting and simulating allows the manager to respond quickly to unexpected changes in the project, detect trouble areas early and evaluate proposed alternative courses of action. PERT also helps to evaluate alternatives at any time during projects duration by looking effect of each change on its completion date. PERT also helps to simulate the project time &a cost and effects of alternate decisions. In other words it can be defined it can be defined as a planning techniques that precuts statistical information regarding the uncertainties associated with completing the different activities associated to a project. Expected Value of activity direction
Example: PERT
(i)Draw net work for PERT (ii)Find Expected Time te for all activities (iii)Find Variance 2 for all activities (iv)Find Z value, when Ts= 103 (v)What is the probability that project will finish in 104 days? (vi)What is the probability that activity K will start on 55th day of project execution? Activity O 8 8 11 18 1 1 3 1 10 Duration M 10 10 12 20 2 2 4 2 15 P 15 12 13 26 4 5 7 3 21 Pred Expected Variance . Time te 2 Nil A B B B C E F D
A B C D
Calculations: E F G H I
J K
L
3 32
4
5 40
8
7 56
13
G H,I,J
K
Solution
Activity O 8 8 11 18 1 1 3 1 10
Duration M 10 10 12 20 2 2 4 2 15 P 15 12 13 26 4 5 7 3 21
A B
= 10.5 days
= = 1.36 =
C D E F G H I
J K
L
3 32
4
5 40
8
7 56
13
G H,I,J
K
PERT
PERT uses three time estimates (optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic) to derive an expected time. PERT is probabilistic in nature, PERT is used for R&D, where percent complete is almost impossible to determine except a completed milestones. PERT is event oriented rather than activity oriented and can be used as an arrow diagram network. PERT serves a useful control device as it assist the management in controlling a project by calling attention through constant review to such delays in activities which might lead to a delay in the project completion date. Can be used for risk analysis and management PERT gives probability in % to achieve critical path May be used successfully for projects with uncertainties and risks
MS Project
Primavera (P3, P6) Risky Project
Pertmaster
Process Overview
Ru ra l He a lth Cli n ic
T o ta l 2 1 0 3 ,7 2 2 ,0 0 0 . 0 0 1 ,9 8 2 ,8 0 0 . 0 0 1 ,4 5 0 ,0 0 0 . 0 0 1 ,6 4 0 ,0 0 0 . 0 0
Ge n e ra l
S u b to ta l 2 1 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0
1 0 0 0 P ro j e c t S t a rt 1 1 1 0 P ro j e c t C o m p l e t e
0 0
0 .0 0 0 .0 0
0 .0 0 0 .0 0
0 .0 0 0 .0 0
0 .0 0 0 .0 0
P ro j e c t S t a rt P ro j e c t C o m p l e te
F o u n da t io n
S u b to ta l 5 4 8 5 0 ,0 0 0 .0 0 8 5 0 ,0 0 0 .0 0 8 5 0 ,0 0 0 .0 0 9 5 0 ,0 0 0 .0 0
1 0 1 0 E a rt h w o r k s 1 0 2 0 F o u n d a t io n u p to P l i n th
1 8 2 4
5 0 ,0 0 0 .0 0 8 0 0 ,0 0 0 .0 0
5 0 ,0 0 0 .0 0 8 0 0 ,0 0 0 .0 0
5 0 ,0 0 0 .0 0 8 0 0 ,0 0 0 .0 0
6 0 ,0 0 0 .0 0 8 9 0 ,0 0 0 .0 0
E a rt h wo r k s F o u n d a t i o n u p t o P l i n th
S tru c tu re W o rk
S u b to ta l
5 1
1 ,5 3 6 ,0 0 0 . 0 0
1 ,1 3 2 ,8 0 0 . 0 0
6 0 0 ,0 0 0 .0 0
6 9 0 ,0 0 0 .0 0
5 0 4 ,0 0 0 .0 0 9 6 ,0 0 0 .0 0
5 8 4 ,0 0 0 .0 0 1 0 6 ,0 0 0 .0 0
S u p e r-s t ru c t u r e B lo c k M a s o n ry
F in i s he s
S u b to ta l
Project Budget (BAC): 37.22 lakhs Funds Used (AC): 16.40 lakhs Utilization = 44.1 %
1 1 0 0 P lu m b i n g 1 0 9 0 E l e c t ri c a l W o r k s 1 0 7 0 F lo o rin g 1 0 6 0 P a in t 1 0 8 0 W o o d W o rk
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0
0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 x 100000
P la s t e r P lu m b i n g E l e c t ri c a l W o r k s F lo o rin g P a in t W o o d W o rk
x 100000
EAC
Additional EV Parameters: Planned (PV): 19.82 lakhs Earned (EV): 14.50 lakhs
1 0
40
AC
PV BAC
36
32
28
24
20
16
EV
12
2
R esour ce/ C ost Prof i l e Legend Tot al of A ll R esour ces Tot al earl y cost per M ont h ( C urr ent E st i m at e) C urr ent est i m at e curve E arned val ue curve P l anned val ue cur ve D et ai l scal e ( l ef t ) : X 100000
5 M o n ths
1 0
Sh e e t 1 o f 1
Schedule Analysis
Data Date
Schedule Performance Planned (PV): 19.82 lakhs Earned (EV): 14.50 lakhs Schedule Variance = EV-PV = -5.32 Schedule Performance Index = EV/PV = 0.73
BAC
COST
PV
SV
Project Budget (BAC): 37.22 lakhs Funds Used (AC): 16.40 lakhs Utilization = 44.1 % Additional EV Parameters: Planned (PV): 19.82 lakhs Earned (EV): 14.50 lakhs
AC
EV
TIME
Cost Analysis
Data Date
Cost Performance Actual Cost (AC): 16.40 lakhs Earned (EV): 14.50 lakhs Cost Variance = EV-AC = -1.90 Cost Performance Index = EV/AC = 0.88
BAC
COST
PV
CV
AC
Project Budget (BAC): 37.22 lakhs Funds Used (AC): 16.40 lakhs Utilization = 44.1 % Additional EV Parameters: Planned (PV): 19.82 lakhs Earned (EV): 14.50 lakhs
EV
TIME
Estimate at Completion
Data Date
Estimate at Completion Actual Cost (AC): 16.40 lakhs Earned (EV): 14.50 lakhs EAC = BAC/CPI = 42.3 Variance at Completion = BAC-EAC = -5.07
BAC
COST
PV
Project Budget (BAC): 37.22 lakhs Funds Used (AC): 16.40 lakhs Utilization = 44.1 %
AC
Additional EV Parameters: Planned (PV): 19.82 lakhs Earned (EV): 14.50 lakhs
EV
TIME
1.2 GOOD
1.1
1.0
TIME
CPI SPI
BAD
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.8
Benefits of EVPM
Accurate picture of project status
cost, schedule, and technical
problems Basis for course correction Bring project in on schedule and cost
Thank You
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