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=
| |
( (
\ . \ .
(Source: Katz and Murphy 1992, in Hornstein 2005)
Predictions of simple model for
relative wage of skilled/unskilled
If productivity of skilled labour rises faster than that of unskilled
labour, relative wage for skilled workers will rise
If supply of skilled labour rises faster than that of unskilled, then
relative wage will fall
The higher the degree of substitutability between skilled and
unskilled (value of o
s
) then
the larger is the positive effect of rising relative productivity on
relative wages
the smaller is the negative effect of rising relative supply
Model with two types of labour and
capital equipment
Elasticity of substitution between unskilled labour and equipment is
o
ue
= 1/(1-|),
and for skilled labour and equipment is o
se
= 1/(1-)
Unskilled labour is more easily substitutable with equipment than is
skilled labour o
ue
> o
se
(| > )
The relative wage equation now has three elements:
1 1 ( )
ln ln ln
s ue s s e
u ue u ue u s
w A l k
w A l l
o |
o o
( | | ( | | | |
= +
| | |
( (
\ . \ . \ .
Source: Hornstein, or see Greenhalgh and Rogers
Predictions of three-input model for
relative wages of skilled/unskilled
Added effect driving demand for skilled labour is it is
complementary with capital equipment
Relative wage of skilled workers rises with any increase in ratio
of equipment to skilled labour
Innovation has improved productivity of capital so an increase in
capital intensity has occurred
Big rise in computer use, especially in services sector, has
increased demand for skilled labour
In manufacturing the use of robots and other automation has
reduced demand for unskilled
Evidence for US - these factors explain much of change in
relative wages from 1960s to 1990s
Globalization - Is international trade
also skill biased?
Asian development 1970s & 80s the Asian tigers (Hong Kong,
Singapore, S. Korea Taiwan) - made small inroads into Western
manufacturing
More Asian development 1990s (China and India) jointly have
37% of world population) so have much larger impact on world
trade
HOS model of trade based on domestic factor endowments
predicts specialisation by factors
Opening up of countries with large supply of low cost unskilled
labour leads rich countries to specialise in goods using skilled
labour
Employment and wages of unskilled labour in West expected to
fall (see Wood 1994)
Demand - A third cause of skill bias?
Income growth in rich countries has been steady and sustained
over last 25 years
Composition of demand will change due to varying income
elasticity of demands for goods and services
Luxuries (income elastic) account for more spending than
necessities and demand for inferior goods falls as incomes rise
High technology innovative products require skilled labour to
design and produce and
Relative demand for these will grow as these innovative products
will be in luxury category
Three causes of skill bias in
demand for labour, UK 1979-90
Total %
change in
employment
Final
demand
Net
exports
Technological
change
High skill
28.8 28.2 4.1 4.6
Intermediate
skill
0.1 21.1 4.8 16.2
Low skill
14.9 17.9 5.7 27.1
Total change
3.5 22.0 4.8 13.7
Source: Greenhalgh and Rogers Table 10.3,
from Gregory et al. Oxford Economic Papers, 2001
Implications of these empirics
Calculations used Leontief Input-Output model with linear
production technology
This attributes all output growth to the category change in final
demand even if some is due to product innovation
Technological change effect is measured by factor inputs
needed to produce a constant output
Changing technology in production gave rise to biggest relative
demand shift to skills (30% twist)
Growth in final demand added to relative demand shift (10%
difference in growth)
Trade shows rather modest effects (but database pre-dates rapid
growth of China)
Technology changes may be stimulated by trade