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Chapter-5Human Resource Planning. By-Prof Priyanka kedia.

The Process of Human Resource Planning Organizations need to do human resource planning so they can meet business objectives and gain a competitive advantage over competitors.
Human resource planning compares the present state of the organization with its goals for the future. Then identifies what changes it must make in its human resources to meet those goals.

Overview of the Human Resource Planning Process

HR Planning Process

HR Planning Model
FORECASTING DEMAND CONSIDERATION Product/Services Technology Economics TECHNIQUES Trend analysis Managerial estimate Delphi Method BALANCE SUPPLY AND DEMAND RECRUITMENT Full Time Part Time Recalls REDUCTIONS Terminations Layoffs FORECAST SUPPLY INTERNAL Staffing tables Skills inventories Succession Planning EXTERNAL Demographic changes Labor Mobility

Formulating Human Resource Planning.


Recruitment Plan. Redeployment Plan Redundancy Plan. Training Plan. Productivity Plan. Retention Plan. Check/review points.

Responsibility of HRP
Assist and counsel operating managers to plan and set objectives. Collect and summarise manpower data keeping long run objectives and broad organizational interests in mind. Monitor and measure performance against the plan and keep top management informed about it. Provide proper research base for effective manpower and organisational planning.

Barriers to HRP
Time Consuming Financial forecasting takes precedence over HRP Uncertainties Non-involvement of operating managers Inadequate Information system Trade unions Employers

Human Resources Information System

The human resources information system is a systematic procedure for collecting, storing, maintaining retrieving and validation data needed by an organization about its human resources. Pick your HRIS carefully based on the capabilities you need in your company.

Steps in implementation an HRIS


Step 1:Inception of idea Step 2:Feasibility Study Step 3:Selecting a Project team Step 4:Defining the requirements Step 5:Vendor Analysis
Step 6:Package Contract Negotiation

Step 7:Training Step 8:Tailoring the system Step 9:Collecting the data

Step 10:Testing the system Step 11:Starting up Step 12:Running in parallel Step 13:Maintenance Step 14:Evaluation

HRIS is not just useful in human resources planning. Its uses extent to the whole gamut of HRM.

Human Resource Forecasting

HR Forecasting attempts to determine the supply and demand for various types of human resources, and to predict areas within the organization where there will be labor shortages or surpluses.

There are three major steps to forecasting:


1. Forecasting

the demand for labor 2. Determining labor supply 3. Determining labor surpluses and shortages

HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING


FORECASTING HR REQUIREMENTS (DEMAND ANALYSIS) (Trying to predict future staffing needs) Managerial Estimates Sales Projections Simulations Vacancy Analysis (projected turnover)

FORECASTING HR AVAILABILITY (SUPPLY ANALYSIS) (Predicting worker flows and availabilities) Succession or Replacement Charts Skills Inventories (use of HRIS) Labor Market Analysis Markov Analysis (Transition Matrix) Personnel Ratios

Forecasting the Demand for Labor

1) Expert Forecast
In this method managers estimate future human resource requirements, using their experiences and judgments' to good effect.

2) Ratio Analysis
A forecasting technique for determining future staff needs by using ratios between a causal factor and the number of employees needed.

Assumes that the relationship between the causal factor and staffing needs is constant.
for E.g.- Sales volume and no of employees needed.

3) The Graphical Method ( Scatter plot). A graphical method used to help identify the relationship between two variables.
SIZE OF HOSPITAL NUMBER OF NURSES

200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

240 260 470 500 620 660 820 860

Forecasting HR Needs
Scatter plot
Determining the Relationship Between Hospital Size and Number of Nurses

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4)Trend Analysis

Constructing and applying statistical models that predict labor demand for the next year, given relatively objective statistics from the previous year. 2001-02 Production of Units 5,000 :

2002-03

No. of Workers 100


Ratio 100:5000

:
: :

2003-04

Estimated Production 8,000

No. of Workers required : 8000 100/5000 = 160 If supervisors have a span of 20 workers, 8 supervisors are also needed in 200304. ( 1 suprervisors - 20 workers, 160 workers how many ??)

5)SIMULATION MODEL/REGRESSION FORECAST

TARGET STORES STAFFING FORECAST


MODEL

Y = 8 + .0011(X1) + .00004(X2) + .02(X3)


Y = Number of employees needed to staff the store X1 = Square feet of sales space X2 = Population of metropolitan area X3 = Projected annual disposable income in millions of dollars Y = 8 + .0011(50,000sq ft) + .00004(150,000popul) + .00000002($850 million)

Y = 8 + 55 + 6 + 17

Y = 86 employees needed at this store

6)VACANCY ANALYSIS
Historic departures used to project turnover
LEVEL # EMPL TURN % Expected Vacancies Expected to Remain

TOP MGMT
MID MGMT LOW MGMT SKILLED W ASSY WKRS

100
200 600 600 2000

20 %
24 % 22 % 16% 12 %

20
48 132 96 240

80
152 468 504 1760

TOTALS 2964

3500

536

AVERAGE TURNOVER PERCENTAGE = 536 / 3500 =

.1531

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7)Workload analysis: Based on the planned output, a firm tires to calculate the number of persons required for various jobs.

An example of workload analysis


Planned output for the year Standard hours per piece 10,000 pieces 3 hours

Planned hours required


Productive hours per person per year basis) (allowing for absenteeism, turnover, idle time etc.) No. of workers required

30,000 hours
1,000 hours (estimated on annual

30

If span of control in the unit is 10 per officer, then 3 officers are also required.

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8)Workforce Analysis: All relevant factors in planning manpower flows in a firm such as transfers, promotions, new recruitments, retirement, resignation, dismissal etc are taken into account while estimating HR needs

Manpower flows in a bank


Promotions out Transfers In > > > > > Recruits In > > > > Promotions In > > > Job Hopping Transfers Out Retirement VRS Scheme (Golden handshake) Discharge or Dismissal T erminations Resignations Retrenchment Attractions in Other Banks, etc.

9)Delphi Technique
This technique calls for a facilitator to solicit and collate written, expert opinion on labor forecast. After answer are received, a summary of the information is developed and distributed to the expert, who are than requested to submit revised forecast. Expert never meet face-to-face, communicate through the facilitator. but rather

10)Computerized Forecast
The determination of future staff needs by projecting a firms sales, volume of production, and personnel required to maintain this required volume of output, using computers and software packages. Employers also used computerized system to personnel requirements .

11) Job Analysis


Job analysis helps in finding out the abilities or skills required to do the jobs efficiently. A detailed study of jobs is usually made to identify the qualification and experience required for them.

Determining Labor Supply Predicting Worker Flows and Availabilities A) Internal Labor Supply)

a manpower inventory in terms of the size and quality of personnel available (their age, sex, education, training, experience, job performance, etc) is usually prepared by HR departments.

Several techniques are used while ascertaining the internal supply of manpower (a supply of employees to fill projected vacancies can come from within the firm or from new hires ).

Internal Supply Techniques.


1)Staffing table: Shows the number of employees in each job, how they are utilized and the future employment needs for each type of job. 2)Succession or Replacement Charts Who has been groomed/developed and is ready for promotion right NOW? 3)Transition Matrices (Markov Analysis)

A chart that lists job categories held in one period and shows the proportion of employees in each of those job categories in a future period.
It answers two questions:
1. 2.

Where did people in each job category go? Where did people now in each job category come from A skills inventory is an assessment of the knowledge, skills and abilities of the current employees. This record should be updated every 2 years and shou ld include the changes.

4) Skills inventory:

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Estimated internal labour supply for a given firm


Sources of Inflows The Firm Projected Outflows Promotions Transfers Promotions New Recruits Recalls Employees In Current Staffing Level Employees Out Quits T erminations Retirements Deaths Layoffs

Current staffing level

Projected outflows this year

Projected inflows this year

Firms internal supply for this time next year

SUCCESSION PLANNING
REPLACEMENT CHART
FOR EXECUTIVE POSITIONS

POSITION REPLACEMENT CARDS


FOR EACH INDIVIDUAL POSITION

------------------------------------------------------------------------

POSITION
DANIEL BEALER

WESTERN DIVISION SALES MANAGER


Western Division Sales Mgr Outstanding
PRESENT PERFORMANCE PROMOTION POTENTIAL

POSSIBLE CANDIDATES

CURRENT POSITION

SHARON GREEN Western Oregon Sales Manager Ready Now GEORGE WEI N. California Sales Manager Needs Training HARRY SHOW Idaho/Utah Sales Manager Needs Training TRAVIS WOOD Seattle Area Sales Manager Questionable

Outstanding Outstanding Satisfactory Satisfactory

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Forecasting the Supply of Inside Candidates


Manual System and Replacement Chart (contd)

Management Replacement Chart Showing Development Needs of Future Divisional Vice President

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Markov Analysis
2003-2004 Store Managers (n = 15) Asst. Store Managers (n = 36) Section Heads (n = 94) Departmental Heads (n = 288) Sales Executives (n = 1440) Forecasted Supply 16 41 92 Store Managers
80% 12 1 1% 4 1 1% 1 1 83% 30 66% 63 8% 8 15% 14 6% 2

Asst. Store Managers

Section Heads

Dept. Heds

Sales Executives

Exit

20% 3

10% 29

72% 207 6% 86

2% 6 74% 1066

16% 46 20% 288

301

1072

353

Figures in circles show the transition percentages

Skills inventory
Name : A.K. Sen Number : 429 Key words Word Accounting Book Keeping Auditing Description Tax Ledger Computer records Education Degree MBA B.Com Computer Literacy

Date printed : 1-4-2004 Department : Work experience From 1998 2000 2002 To 2000 2002 2003 T ax clerk Accountant Officer Special Qualifications Year 1998 1995 Course DBF Risk Management Position preference Accounting Auditing Date 1996 1999 Location choice Kolkata Delhi Bangalore M em be rsh ips 1. AIMA 2. ISTD 3. ICA Hobbies ABC Company XYZ Co. 41

Activity Supervision and analysis Supervision Analysis

Chief Accounts TT Bank

Major Finance Accounts

Languages

T ally Banking Software

French

Chess Football Boating

Employees Signature __________ Date _______________________

HR Department________ Date ________________

B)External Labour supply:

External hires need to be contacted when suitable internal replacements are not available.

A growing number of firms are now using computerized human resource information systems to track the qualifications of hundreds or thousands of employees. HRIS can provide managers with a listing of candidates with required qualifications after scanning the data base.
Human Resource Information Systems (HRIS)

An employee database that can be searched when vacancies occurs.

Personnel / Yield Ratios

How much work will it take to recruit one new accountant?

HUMAN RESOURCE INFORMATION SYSTEMS (HRIS)


PERSONAL DATA Age, Gender, Dependents, Marital status, etc EDUCATION & SKILLS Degrees earned, Licenses, Certifications Languages spoken, Specialty skills Ability/knowledge to operate specific machines/equipment/software JOB HISTORY Job Titles held, Location in Company, Time in each position, etc. Performance appraisals, Promotions received, Training & Development MEMBERSHIPS & ACHIEVEMENTS Professional Associations, Recognition and Notable accomplishments PREFERENCES & INTERESTS Career goals, Types of positions sought Geographic preferences CAPACITY FOR GROWTH

PERSONNEL / YIELD RATIOS


Past experience has developed these yield ratios for recruiting a Cost Accountant:

FOR EVERY 12 APPLICATIONS RECEIVED, ONLY one LOOKS PROMISING ENOUGH TO INVITE FOR AN INTERVIEW OF EVERY 5 PERSONS INTERVIEWED, ONLY one IS ACTUALLY OFFERED A POSITION IN THE ORGANIZATION OF EVERY 3 JOB OFFERS MADE, ONLY 2 ACCEPT THE POSITION OF EVERY 10 NEW WORKERS WHO BEGIN THE TRAINING PROGRAM, ONLY 9 SUCCESSFULLY COMPLETE THE PROGRAM

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Manpower Gap Analysis

The existing no of personnel and their skills from human resource inventory are compared with the forecasted needs ( demand forecasting), to determine the qualitative and quantitative gaps in the workforce. A reconciliation of demand and supply forecasts will give us the no of people to be recruited or made redundant as the case may be.

Summary
HR plans must fit in with overall objectives of a firm. They must get consistent support from top management. Computerized human resource information systems must be used for applicant tracking, succession planning, building skills inventories etc. The whole exercise must be carried out in coordination with operating