Risk Assessment Overview

Dr. Attia Hussien Gomaa Maintenance Engineering Consultant Engineering service - American University in Cairo (AUC)

2008
Risk

Risk Assessment (Proactive Approach) It is a powerful systematic methodology to minimize the risk of failure/hazards for critical activities or items or systems
Objectives: Minimize the risk of failures/hazards Minimize Hazard (HSE effect) Maximum Operation Efficiency Optimal Program (Maintenance, Inspection, Job, item) Maximize Reliability & Availability Minimize Unplanned/Planned Minimize Downtime Minimize Cost
Risk

Balance

Cost

Safety & Quality

Risk Based Approach Part I - Dr. Attia Gomaa - 2007

Risk Assessment Approaches (Proactive Approach)

Classical Approaches: (Item level)
Root Cause Analysis Root Cause Failure Analysis Job Safety Analysis Hazard Operation Study Failure Mode Effect Criticality Analysis

Application
(RCA) Item hazard (RCFA) Item failure (JSA) Job hazard (HAZOP) Design hazard (FMEA) Failure hazard

Modern Approaches: (System level)

Risk Based Maintenance - Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) Optimal maintenance Program
Risk Based Inspection (RBI) Optimal inspection Program
Risk
Risk Based Approach Part I - Dr. Attia Gomaa - 2007

Top 5 Targets

(1) To correct failures/ Hazards

Reactive Policy <5%
Risk

(2) To prevent failures/ Hazards

(3) To discover hidden failures/ Hazards

(4) To detect early Failures/ Hazards

(5) To Minimize the risk of failures/ Hazards

Proactive
Policy >15
4

Preventive Policy >80

Risk Based Approach Part I - Dr. Attia Gomaa - 2007

Why Risk Assessment?

Risk

Egyptian Oil & Gas Industries - Nature of Accidents

Causes Of Incidents %:
1)

30% Poor Maintenance & Inspection

25% Backlog, 20% Quality, 15% Spares, 20% Planning & Feedback, 5% Poor housekeeping, 15% Others

2)

25% Process & Operator error

90% Unsafe acts & 10% Unsafe conditions such as poor layout

3)

20% Poor Management (Process, HSE, Maintenance, .. etc.)

70% Information, Planning & Control, 20% Awareness & Culture, 10% others

4)

15% Design Deficiency

50% Design error, 35% Materials, 15% others

5)

10% Others
Based on data from 5 Egyptian Companies Last 10 years Accident & Incident History & Brain Storming Prepared by Dr. Attia Gomaa, 2007, Inprint. Risk
Risk Based Approach Part I - Dr. Attia Gomaa - 2007

Egyptian Oil & Gas Industries - Nature of Accidents

90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

80%

12% 5%
Human factors Process factors Enviromental factors

3%
Others

Based on data from 5 Egyptian Companies Last 10 years Accident & Incident History & Brain Storming Prepared by Dr. Attia Gomaa, 2007, Inprint. Risk
Risk Based Approach Part I - Dr. Attia Gomaa - 2007

Egyptian Oil & Gas Industries - Nature of Accidents

Main Item 1) Piping systems 2) Tanks 3) Heat Exchangers 4) Valves % 30 25 8 7

Critical Items (A Rule 80/20)

5) Towers
6) Compressors 7) Pumps 8) Gages Others Total

5
4 3 2 16 100

Failure/Hazard Improvement: RCA FMEA RCM RBI

Based on data from 5 Egyptian Companies Last 10 years Accident & Incident History & Brain Storming Prepared by Dr. Attia Gomaa, 2007, Inprint.
Risk
Risk Based Approach Part I - Dr. Attia Gomaa - 2007

Risk Assessment Methodology:

1. Plant overview 2. System/equipment list 3. Information collection and analysis 4. Criticality analysis (HSE, Process, Standby, Cost) 5. Critical systems / Critical equipment 6. Critical failures/Hazards (Top 5 Failures/ Hazards) 7. Proactive approach (RCFA, FMEA, RCM, RBI) 8. Proposed programs 9. Program implementation (Work orders & Feedback) 10.KPI (Strength and weakness points + Recommendation)

Risk

Risk Based Approach Part I - Dr. Attia Gomaa - 2007