PROBABILITY

Espedillon, Marigold May

BS ECE 5-1 SY 13-14

PROBABILITY
Is the bridge between description of samples and inferences about populations It is both the language and measure of uncertainty To understand how a small sample can reveal accurate information about a large population

BASICS
Sample space
The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment Usually denoted by a capital letter

Sample points
Elements of the sample space

Event
Is a subset of a sample space is the event that if A occurs then B occurs(or both) is the event that if A occurs and B occurs is the event that A does not occue

 Example An experiment consists of flipping a coin and then flipping it a second time if a head occurs. If a tail occurs on the first flip, then a die is tossed once. S={HH,HT,T1,T2,T3,T4,T5,T6}

 An experiment consists of flipping a coin and then flipping it a second time if a head occurs. If a tail occurs on the first flip, then a die is tossed once

 Example Suppose that three items are selected at random from a manufacturing process. Each item is inspected and classified defective, D, or non-defective, N. List all the possible outcome. a. List all the elements of event A that no defective would be selected b. List all the of event B that outmost one defective would be selected c. List all the elements of event C that more defective items would be selected than non-defective item

S={DDD, DDN, DND, DNN, NDD, NDN, NND, NNN}

S={DDD, DDN, DND, DNN, NDD, NDN, NND, NNN}

a. A event that no defective would be selective A={NNN} b. B event that outmost one defective would be selected B={DNN,NDN,NND,NNN} c. C event that all the C={DDD,DDN,DND,NDD}

COUNTING SAMPLE POINTS

Counting Principle: MULTIPLICATION RULE If a certain experiment can be performed in n1 ways and corresponding to each of these ways another experiment can be performed in n2 ways, then the combined experiment can be performed in 1 2 ways

 Example: Three children are born in a family. On any birth the child could be a son or a daughter. Using S to represent a son and d to represent a daughter give the sample space S. How many sample point are there?

COUNTING SAMPLE POINTS

PERMUTATION Refers to the arrangement of all or part of a set of objects
Factorial Permutation Circular Permutation Permutation with repetition

 FACTORIAL
the number of permutations of n distinct objects is n! DISTINCT means not equal or you can differentiate one from the other

! = 1 2 (1)

 Example: A child has 12 blocks of which 6 are black, 4 are red, 1 is white and 1 is blue. If the child puts the blocks in a line, how many arrangements are possible?

 PERMUTATION
the number of permutations of n distinct objects take r at a time is ..

nPr = P(n,r) =

! !

 Example: In how many ways can 5 starting positions on a basketball team be filled with 8 men who can play any of the positions?

 CIRCULAR PERMUTATION
the number of permutations of n distinct objects arranged in a circle is..

1 !

 Example If 4 americans, 3 chinese and 3 Filipinos are to be seated in a round table, how many seating arrangements are possible?

 PERMUTATION WITH REPETITION

the number of distinct permutations of n objects of which n1 are of the first kind, n2 of a second kind.. of a kth kind is..

! = 1 ! 2 ! !

 Example In how many can the letter s of the word engineering be arranged?

EXERCISES
1. If a 22-member club needs to elect a chair and a treasurer, how many different ways can these two to be elected? (22)(21) = 462 ways

2. Sam is going to assemble a computer by himself. He has the choice of chips from two brands, a hard drive from four, memory from three, and an accessory bundle from five local stores. How many different ways can Sam order the parts? (2)(4)(5) = 40 ways

EXERCISES
3. How many three-digit numbers can be formed from the digits 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 if each digit can be used only once? (b) How many of these are odd numbers? (c) How many are greater than 330? a. (6)(6)(5) = 180 ways b. (5)(5)(3)=75 ways c. Case 1: if hundreds digits is 3 = (1)(6)(5) = 30 Case 2: if hundreds digits is >4 = (3)(6)(5) = 90 Case 1 + Case 2 = 120 ways

EXERCISES
4. In one year, three awards (research, teaching, and service) will be given to a class of 25 graduate students in a statistics department. If each student can receive at most one award, how many possible selections are there? 25 P3 = 13,800 ways 5. Find the number of ways that 6 teachers can be assigned to 4 sections of an introductory psychology course if no teacher is assigned to more than one section. (6)(5)(4)(3) = 360 or 6P4 = 360 ways

EXERCISES
6. A president and a treasurer are to be chosen from a student club consisting of 50 people. How many different choices of officers are possible if: (a) there are no restrictions; (b) A will serve only if he is president; (c) B and C will serve together or not at all; (d) D and E will not serve together?

EXERCISES
(a) there are no restrictions; (b) A will serve only if he is president; (c) B and C will serve together or not at all; (d) D and E will not serve together?

a. 25P2 = 600 ways b. Since A will serve only if he is president, we have two situations here: (i) A is selected as the president, which yields 49 possible outcomes for the treasurers position (ii) officers are selected from the remaining 49 people without A, which has the number of choices 49P2 = (49)(48) = 2352. Therefore, the total number of choices is 49 + 2352 = 2401.

EXERCISES
c.)

The number of selections when B and C serve together is 2. The number of selections when both B and C are not chosen is 48P2 = 2256. Therefore, the total number of choices in this situation is 2 + 2256 = 2258. d.) i.

ii.

iii.
iv.

The number of selections when D serves as an officer but not E is (2)(48) = 96, where 2 is the number of positions D can take and 48 is the number of selections of the other officer from the remaining people in the club except E. The number of selections when E serves as an officer but not D is also (2)(48) = 96. The number of selections when both D and E are not chosen is 48P2 = 2256. Therefore, the total number of choices is (2)(96) + 2256 = 2448.

This problem also has another short solution: Since D and E can only serve together in 2 ways, the answer is 2450 2 = 2448.