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METABICAL:

PRICING, PACKAGING, AND


DEMAND FORECASTING FOR A NEW
WEIGHT-LOSS DRUG
Presented by
Group C9
Gaurav Singh
Neha Agarwal
Nishant Boorla
Sudip Ray

PROBLEM STATEMENT

We are to choose the best combination of


pricing, packaging and forecasted demand in
order to get the highest ROI where the ROI is at
least 5% over the 5years

TOTAL COST
Total budget

Overheads

Total Cost

82730000

6000000

88730000

DEMAND FORECAST:OPTION 1
Percentage
of people
trying to
Potential
lose weight users

Percentage
of
First time
Repurchaser
Target
overweight Total
user
s
Repurchaser Full time
Full time
percentage taken
population population percentage Population percentage population Total

35%

15%

10%

34% 230000000

410550

60%

246330

20%

98532

755412

35%

15%

15%

34% 230000000

615825

60%

369495

20%

147798

1133118

35%

15%

20%

34% 230000000

821100

60%

492660

20%

197064

1510824

35%

15%

25%

34% 230000000

1026375

60%

615825

20%

246330

1888530

35%

15%

30%

34% 230000000

1231650

60%

738990

20%

295596

2266236

7554120

DEMAND FORECAST:OPTION 2
Prescription Target
seekers
percentage

Percentage of
overweight Total
taken
population

First time
user
population

Repurchasers Repurchaser Full time


percentage Population percentage

Full time
population

Total

12%

10%

34%

230000000

938400

60%

563040

20%

225216

1726656

12%

15%

34%

230000000

1407600

60%

844560

20%

337824

2589984

12%

20%

34%

230000000

1876800

60%

1126080

20%

450432

3453312

12%

25%

34%

230000000

2346000

60%

1407600

20%

563040

4316640

12%

30%

34%

230000000

2815200

60%

1689120

20%

675648

5179968

17266560

DEMAND FORECAST:OPTION 3
Target
percentage

First time user


Total population population

Repurchasers
percentage

Repurchaser
Population

Full time
percentage

Full time
population

Total

30%

4300000

1290000

60%

774000

20%

309600

2373600

35%

4300000

1505000

60%

903000

20%

361200

2769200

40%

4300000

1720000

60%

1032000

20%

412800

3164800

45%

4300000

1935000

60%

1161000

20%

464400

3560400

50%

4300000

2150000

60%

1290000

20%

516000

3956000

15824000

RETURN
Selling price

Margin

Forecast 1

Forecast 2

Forecast 3

7554120

17266560

15824000

Price 1

75

24.8

187342176

428210688

392435200

Price 2

125

58.13

439120995.6

1003705133

919849120

Price 3

150

74.8

565048176

1291538688

1183635200

ROI CALCULATED
Option

Manufacturer
Gross Margin

Total Cost

Return

ROI

Price 1 Forecast 1

187342176

88730000

98612176

52.64%

Price 1 Forecast 2

428210688

88730000

339480688

79.28%

Price 1 Forecast 3

392435200

88730000

303705200

77.39%

Price 2 Forecast 1

439120995.6

88730000

350390995.6

79.79%

Price 2 Forecast 2

1003705133

88730000

914975132.8

91.16%

Price 2 Forecast 3

919849120

88730000

831119120

90.35%

Price 3 Forecast 1

565048176

88730000

476318176

84.30%

Price 3 Forecast 2

1291538688

88730000

1202808688

93.13%

Price 3 Forecast 3

1183635200

88730000

1094905200

92.50%

CONCLUSION

Clearly, if we go with 3rd price and 2nd demand


forecast options then we will get maximum ROI
that is 93.13%
Thus, it is recommended that we go with 3rd
price and 2nd demand forecast option