WMO

Into a warming world

UNEP

The Intergovernmental panel on climate change:

Science at the service of policy-making

2

Writing and review process of the IPCC assessment reports

1. Experts review the first draft of the report
2. Governments and experts review the second draft of the report and the draft Summary for Policymakers

3. Governments review word-by-word the revised draft Summary for Policymakers

3

The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

(2007)

+2500 scientific expert reviewers 800 contributing authors 450 lead authors +130 countries
4

References to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report in the Bali Action Plan (December 2007)
Responding to the findings of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and that delay in reducing emissions significantly constrains opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels and increases the risk of more severe climate change impacts [] emphasizing the urgency to address climate change as indicated in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [] urgent and immediate needs of developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, especially the least developed countries and small island developing States, and further taking into account the needs of countries in Africa affected by drought, desertification and floods
5

Key findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report:

1. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal

Observed changes
Global average temperature

Global average sea level

Northern hemisphere snow cover

Global temperature change

Models using only natural forcing
1

Models using both natural and anthropogenic forcing Observations

0.5

1900

1950 Year

2000

The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas
- Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005: 1 million people lost their homes

Heat waves have become more frequent over most land areas
- Heat wave in Europe, 2003: 35 000 deaths
10

Intense tropical cyclone activity has increased in the North Atlantic since about 1970
- Hurricane Katrina, 2005: up to $200 billion cost estimate

11

More intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics

12

Photo credit: GoodPlanet

Key findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report:

2. Continued GHG emissions [...] would induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century
13

Carbon dioxide emissions

Global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) increased markedly as a result of human activities, with an increase of 70% in 1970-2004 U.S. emissions have risen by 14.7% in 1990-2006*
10000 5000 Time (before 2005) 0

*Source: EPA, 2008

14

-2

Projected surface temperature changes

(2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999)

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 (oC)

Continued emissions would lead to further warming of 1.1C to 6.4C over the 21st century
15

Examples of impacts associated with global average temperature change relative to 1980-1999
0
WATER

5oC

Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes Hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress Increased coral bleaching ECOSYSTEMS Most corals bleached Widespread coral mortality

Terrestrial biosphere tends towards a net carbon source as: 15% 40% of ecosystems affected Increasing species range shifts and wildfire risk Ecosystem changes due to weakening of the meridional overturning circulation Complex, localised negative impacts on small holders, subsistence farmers and fishers

FOOD

Tendencies for cereal productivity to decrease in low latitudes Tendencies for some cereal productivity to increase at mid- to high latitudes Increased damage from floods and storms

Productivity of all cereals decreases in low latitudes Cereal productivity to decrease in some regions

COASTS

About 30% of global coastal wetlands lost Millions more people experience coastal flooding each year Increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory, infectious diseases

HEALTH

Increased morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods, droughts Changed distribution of some disease vectors

16

Impacts on North America

Warming in western mountains is projected to cause decreased snowpack and reduced summer flows, exacerbating competition for over-allocated water resources
Increased number, intensity and duration of heatwaves will have potential for adverse health impacts

Coastal communities and habitats will be increasingly stressed by climate change impacts interacting with development and pollution
17

Expected impacts on poor regions

People exposed to increased water stress by 2020:
120 million to 1.2 billion in Asia 12 to 81 million in Latin America 75 to 250 million in Africa

Possible yield reduction in agriculture:

30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia 30% by 2080 in Latin America 50% by 2020 in some African countries

Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in Africa

18

Key findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: 3. Neither adaptation nor mitigation alone can avoid all climate change impacts; however, they can complement each other and together can significantly reduce the risks of climate change
19

Stabilisation scenarios
Global mean temp. increase (C) Stabilization level (ppm CO2-eq)

Year CO2 needs to peak

2.0 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.2 4.0

445 490 490 535 535 590 590 710

2000 2015 2000 2020 2010 2030 2020 2060

20

Costs of mitigation in 2030

Stabilisation levels (ppm CO2-eq) 445 - 535 535 - 590 590 - 710 Range of GDP reduction (%) <3 0.2 2.5 -0.6 1.2 Reduction of average annual GDP growth rates (percentage pts) < 0.12 < 0.1 < 0.06

Mitigation measures would induce 0.6% gain to 3% decrease of GDP in 2030

21

Impacts of mitigation on GDP growth

(for stabilisation scenario of 445-535 ppm CO2-eq) GDP
Cost of mitigation in 2030: max 3% of global GDP Mitigation would postpone GDP growth by one year at most over the medium term

GDP without mitigation GDP with stringent mitigation Current Schematic graph 2030

Time
22

Co-benefits of mitigation
Health co-benefits from reduced air pollution Increased energy security More rural employment Increased agricultural production and reduced pressure on natural ecosystems Co-benefits provide the opportunity for no-regrets policies and reduce mitigation costs
23

Key findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report:

4. There is substantial [] potential for

the mitigation of global GHG emissions over the coming decades that could [] reduce emissions below current levels

24

All stabilisation levels assessed can be achieved by deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are currently available or expected to be commercialised in coming decades This assumes appropriate and effective incentives are in place for their development, acquisition, deployment and diffusion
25

Key mitigation instruments, policies & practices

Research, development and demonstration

Appropriate energy infrastructure investments

Regulations and standards Taxes and charges Change in lifestyles & consumption patterns

Effective carbon-price signal

26

Barack Obamas New Energy for America plan (2008)

Create 5 million new green jobs by investing $150 billion over the next 10 years Ensure 10% of electricity comes from renewable sources by 2012, and 25% by 2025 Get 1 million hybrid cars on the road by 2015

Implement an economy-wide cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80% by 2050
27

The need for US involvement

US action on mitigation would:
enable the achievement of global stabilisation targets ensure US competitiveness in a world market dominated by low-carbon products

re-establish confidence in US leadership on critical global issues

28

Man did not weave the web of life, he is merely a strand in it.
Whatever he does to the web, he does to himself.
Chief Seattle, 1854

29