Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
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SCLG - Dubai
Presented by
Krishnan Sugavanam Mantis
Warehouse Vision
Transportation Vision Mobile Vision
Plant Vision
OEM
Distributor
Dealer
Retail
Consumer
Replenishment Planning
Demand Planning
ERP Systems
OEM
Manufacturer
Distributor
Dealer
Retail
Consumer
Variability in Demand?
Centralised or Decentralised planning? How often to order? Weekly, Daily, Monthly, Quarterly? Or a combination? What forecasting methods to use and why? How to classify products for effective inventory control? What target service levels to set and why? How much buffer stocks to hold and where?
Demand Patterns
Lumpy Slow Erratic
Fast
Positive Trend
Negative Trend
New
Dying
Obsolete
Forecast Components
Base level
Cyclical variation
FORECAST COMPONENTS
Trend
External factors
Seasonality Profiles
Year One
Year Two
Manual Intervention
Forecast adjustments
Reason codes
Forecasting Demand
60
50
Flier?
40
Demand
30 20 10 0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Period
Volume Density
1998
1999
2000
2002
2003
V O
LU M E
FREQUENCY
Demand
The Cushion
Buffer Stock
The amount of safety stock held to cover random variations in demand Forecast accuracy
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
STOCK LEVEL
*REORDER LEVEL POINT (A) EXPECTED RATE OF USAGE (R) BUFFER STOCK LEVEL
*ROL= Forecast over lead -time + buffer stock **ROQ can be determined by EOQ or Coverage Analysis
Q3
STOCK LEVEL
Q2 Q1
. . . . . . . .
Q3
TIME
*OL=Forecast of Demand in cover period + Buffer Stock **ROQ=Order Level-Effective Stock + Back Orders
Coverage Analysis
The objective of coverage analysis is to identify the optimum ordering frequency for each product within a group to minimise the overall turnover stock capital investment.
DFRP Models
Warehouse Stocks Warehouse Forecasts
Branch Demand
Branch Forecasts Branch Orders Branch Order Schedules Warehouse Stocks Only National Stocks
eCollaboration
Supplier Collaboration
Internal Collaboration
Customer Collaboration
OEM
Supplier
Distributor
Warehouse
Retail
Companies moving more and more towards centralized inventory planning and away from decentralization of planning activities
Local Optimisation
ERP Myth
JDE
IFS Baan
SAP R/3
Inhouse
Shop
Divisional Warehouse
Global Warehouse
Manufacturing
Supplier
Forecast Stock level (safety stock) Replenishment plan Forecast Replenishment plan Production planning Capacity need Material need Supplier Sub Supplier
Manufacturer
Integration
Questions?
Break