Sample Sustainable Energy

A Sustainable Energy Scenario
through 2020 based on PV & Wind, Bio-Fuel,

Nuclear
EWG Business Network

Hong Kong, 4th Sept. 2007
By Lim Man Onn

CEO, Partnership for Equitable Growth
Contents
Ⅰ PV & Wind Power
Ⅱ Bio-Fuel
Ⅲ Nuclear Energy
Ⅳ Conclusion
☞  PV & Wind Power
01_ PV (Photovoltaic)
02_ Wind Power
03_ Prospect and Segment
 Bio-Fuel
 Nuclear Energy
 Conclusion
3
PV (Photovoltaic) Ⅰ. PV & Wind
 Manufacture Process
Poly-Crystalline Ingot Wafer

Silicon
Cell
Modul Design & Installation
e
4
 Cumulative installed PV Power (in IEA’s reporting

countries)
3,700
9%
.3
38
2,607
of
th
wo
gr
1,828
al
nu
An
1,334
989
729
520
396
314
199 245
110 136 164
※ Source : Report IEA-PVPS T1-15 : 2006
5
 Total installed PV Power by 2005 (in IEA’s reporting countries)
6
 PV yearly module production by regions 1,532

(’05)
1400
1,256
1200 Country 2003 2004 Growth AmountGrowth Rate
USA 109.0 141.5 32.5 29.8%
Japan 365.4 594.1 228.7 62.6%
1000 Europe 202.3 344.1 141.8 70.1%
Production (MWp)
China 10.3 38.0 27.7 268.9%

Rest 74.9 138.1 75.9 101.3% of
800 th
Total 761.9 1,256.0 494.1 64.9% w 761.9
o
l gr %
600
n ua 7.2 559.6
n 3
A
400 390.5
287.7
wth of 13%
200 Annual gro 202.2
125.8 153.2
60.1 69.4 77.7 88.7
0
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Year
USA Japan Europe China Rest Total
※ Source : PHOTON Internatial, The Photonvoltail Magazine, 2005.3 Growth 2005/2004 of 22%
7
 PV Production by company
56% of PV module production from Japanese companies
Share of PV module production by company in 2005 (%)
8
 Indicative installed PV system price in 2005

[UNIT : USD]
Off-Grid (per W) On-Grid (per W)

Country
< 1 kW > 1 kW <10 kW > 10 kW
Australia 16.8 14.5 7.6~10.7 7.6
Austria 18.5 12.3~24.7 6.2~7.4 6.2~6.8
Canada 12.3 - 8.3~10.3 10.4
Switzerland 12.0~16.0 9.6~12.0 6.8~8.8 5.8~7.2
Germany - - 7.4 -
Denmark 11.7~15.0 25.0~33.3 5.5~13.3 8.3~16.7
France 18.5~29.6 14.8~25.9 8.1 5.6
UK 10.0~17.3 10.0~17.3 8.5~27.6 6.2~19.1
Israel 10.0 >11.0 - -
Italy 14.8~18.5 14.8~17.3 7.4~9.9 6.8~8.6
Japan - - 6.0 6.6
Korea 21.5 19.5 9.6 9.6
Mexico 12.4~16.5 - - 6.9
Netherlands - - 6.8~7.4 5.9
Norway 15.5~23.3 - 12.4~17.1 -
Sweden 13.4 - 12.4~17.1 6.7
USA 12.0~25.0 12.0~20.0 7.0~10.0 6.5~9.0
9
 Summary
◎ Cost accelerates
• The tremendous growth of PV business
• Lack of raw material of poly silicon that is the same as for producing
semiconductor grade silicon
◎ High growth expectation

• The average annual growth rate for the last 5 years : 39.72%
• Japan and Europe are driving PV system installation continuously
• Most of the countries are interested in renewable energy to replace
oil consumption and solve global warming
◆ Scenario Ⅰ: Aggressive growth : 20% p.a.

◆ Scenario Ⅱ : Moderate growth : 15% p.a.
10
Wind Power Ⅰ. PV & Wind
 Annual Generation from Wind (in IEA’s reporting countries)
1 0%
1.
The IEA 20 developed countries
f 3
had 87% of the world installed o
wind power (2005) th
o w
gr
u al
n
An
※ Source : IEA Wind Annual Report in 2005
11
 National statistics in 2005

% of national
Average new Wind National
Total installed Annual new Total No. of electricity
IEA turbine generated electricity
wind capacity wind capacity Turbines demand from
Country capacity electricity demand
wind
(MW) (MW) (turbines) (kW) (GWh) (TWh) (%)
Australia 708.00 328.00 447 1,750 2,171.0 190.00 1.143
Austria 819.00 212.00 NDA NDA NDA NDA NDA
Canada 683.00 239.00 681 1,700 1,800.0 538.00 0.34
Denmark 3,128.00 4.00 5,293 1,200 6,614.0 35.72 18.50
Finland 82.00 0.00 94 1,030 170.0 84.90 0.20
Germany 18,428.00 1,808.00 17,592 1,723 26,500.0 611.00 4.34
Greece 605.40 121.10 926 1,188 1,270.0 51.00 2.49
Ireland 492.7 204.60 321 1,000 655.0 26.01 2.52
Italy 1,717.00 452.00 2,258 1,196 2,140.0 329.00 0.65
Japan 1,077.70 150.80 1,048 1,300 1,438.7 865.40 0.17
Korea 100.00 70.00 41 1,700 146 359.31 0.04
Mexico 2.20 0.00 8 0 4.2 183.90 0.002
Netherlands 1,213.00 140.00 1,733 1,358 2,000.0 118.00 1.695
Norway 270.00 110.00 129 2,300 504.0 126.00 0.40
Portugal 1,060.00 529.00 743 2,100 1,773.0 47.97 3.70
Spain 10,028.00 1,630.00 NDA 1,320 20,236.0 259.95 7.79
Sweden 452.00 48.00 759 1,000 864 146 0.59
Switzerland 11.59 2.92 34 584 8.4 61.30 0.014
UK 1,337.16 446.80 1,445 1,730 2,394.0 421.90 0.48
USA 9,149.00 2,431.00 7,200 1,500 28,051.0 3,838.60 0.73
Totals 51,363.75 8,927.22 40,752 1,352 98,739.3 8,293.96 1.19
12
 Increasing average size of new turbine installed (IEA wind member

countries)
※ Source : IEA Wind Annual Report in 2005
13
Many European countries have established high targets for

wind power generation
Portugal 39% of electricity consumption by 2012. 3,750MW of wind power
Finland 31% of electricity consumption by 2010. 8.4TWh/year. 500 MW approx.
Denmark 20% of electricity consumption (end of 2003)

Germany 25% CO2 emissions reduction by 2005 (from 1990 levels)
Spain 12% of primary energy demand by 2010. 13,000MW installed wind power by 2011
UK 10% electricity supplied by 2010, subject to cost to consumer being acceptable
Ireland 3.2% of electricity generated by 2010. capacity of 500MW (in 2005)

Italy 2,500MW (eq. Avoided 3.4 m tons CO2 emissions based on wind power)
5% of energy by 2010 (9% of electricity) rising to 10% of energy by 2020. 1,500MW of
Netherlands
wind power by 2010
7TWh per year of electricity. 3TWh per year from wind energy (approx. 1,000MW) by
Norway
2010
Sweden 10TWh per year by 2015
Switzerland 50~100GWh by 2010 from wind power
Greece 1,500 MW wind power by 2010
14
 Summary
◎ The competitive factors
• Electricity generation from wind is almost 10 times as much as PV
power
• Wind power has economic feasibility itself without subsidy from
government
• Plenty of national incentive programs
◎ Growth expectation
• The average annual growth rate for the last 5 years : 31.10%
• Turbine size is getting bigger, now 5MW turbine now commercial
• Wind power is the most competitive among renewable energy
◆ Scenario Ⅰ: Aggressive growth : 20% p.a.

◆ Scenario Ⅱ : Moderate growth : 15% p.a.
15
Prospect and Segment Ⅰ. PV & Wind
 Convert electricity from PV & Wind to TOE (Ton of Oil Equivalent)

◎ PV generated electricity in 2005
- Cumulative installed PV power : 3,895 MW
※ Assumption : IEA countries of 3,700 MW had 95% of the world installed PV power
- Average Efficiency : 17%

- Average generating time a day : 3.5 hours
☞ Generated Electricity : 846 GWh
◎ Wind power generated electricity in 2005

- Generated electricity : 113,493 GWh
※ Assumption : applied the 87% of IEA countries installed in worldwide to the same % of the generated
electricity in 2005
PV generated Power : 188,000 TOE

Wind generated Power : 25,220,666 TOE
* One TOE : 12 MWh
* Average efficiency : 37.5%
16
 Scenario Ⅰ: aggressive growth case

(Million Toe) 2006 2010 2015 2020
PV 0.23 0.47 1.16 2.90
Wind Power 30.49 63.22 157.32 391.47
Total 30.72 63.69 158.49 394.37
Consumption 4,306.30 4,846.78 5,618.74 6,513.67

World
Electricity
Ratio 0.71% 1.31% 2. 82% 6.05%
World Consumption 10,878.50 12,007.83 13,257.61 14,637.48

Primary
Energy Ratio 0.28% 0.53% 1.20% 2.69%
* Assumption
- PV & Wind growth rate : 20%
- World electricity growth rate : 3.0%, Production in 2005 : 4,306.3 m TOE (source : BP statistical review)
- World Primary Energy growth rate : 2.5%(2006~2010), 2.0%(2011~2020),

Production in 2006 : 10,878.5 m TOE (source : BP statistical review)
17
Aggressive Penentration of PV & Wind Power
7.00%
6.05%
6.00%
5.00%
4.00%
2.82% 2.69%
3.00%
2.00%
1.31% 1.20%
1.00% 0.71% 0.53%
0.28%
0.00%
2006 2010 2015 2020
year
Electricity Ratio Primary Energy Ratio
18
 Scenario Ⅱ : moderate growth case

Million Toe 2006 2010 2015 2020
PV 0.23 0.38 0.76 1.53
Wind Power 29.22 51.11 102.79 206.75
Total 29.44 51.48 103.55 208.28
Consumption 4,306.30 4,846.78 5,618.74 6,513.67

World
Electricity
Ratio 0.68% 1.06% 1.84% 3.20%

Primary
Energy Ratio 0.27% 0.43% 0.78% 1.42%
* Assumption
- PV & Wind growth rate : 15%
- World electricity growth rate : 3.0%, Production in 2005 : 4,306.3 m TOE (source : BP statistical review)

Production in 2006 : 10,878.5 m TOE (source : BP statistical review)
19
Moderate Penentration of PV & Wind Power
3.50% 3.20%
3.00%
2.50%
2.00% 1.84%
1.42%
1.50%
1.06%
1.00% 0.78%
0.68%
0.43%
0.50% 0.27%
0.00%
2006 2010 2015 2020
year
Electricity Ratio Primary Energy Ratio
20
 PV & Wind Power
☞  Bio-Fuel
01_ Bio-Diesel
02_ Bio-Ethanol
03_ Activities around the world
 Nuclear Energy
 Conclusion
21
Bio-Diesel Ⅱ. Bio-Fuel
 Feed Stocks
• Jatropha oil : India
• Palm oil : Indonesia, Malaysia (produce 80% of the total palm oil)
• Soybean oil : The United States of America
• Rapeseed and Sunflower oil : Europe
Jatropha Palm Fruit
Key Raw
Material
22
 Feed Stock Production per Hectare & Cost of Bio-diesel Production
Bio-diesel is clean fuel with high cetane index of 46~70
Yield/ha Rate per barrel

Feed Stock Country
(kg) (US$)
Soya Oil USA 375 73
Rapeseed Oil Europe 1,000 78
Jatropha Oil India 3,000 43
Palm Oil Malaysia 5,000 46
※ Source : Center for Jatropha Promotion & Biodiesel in India (http://www.jatrophaworld.org)
23
 Full Option Model
24
 Jatropha : Uses
Main purpose cultivating Jatropha is to produce bio-diesel
Whole plant Roots Leaves Latex Seeds Twig
- Prevent water - Source of oil suitable

erosion and for as fuel for diesel engine - Used as medicine
conservation - Used as
- Used as - Used as Dataun
ethnomedicine - Useful as illumitant,
- Used as (Herbal tooth
- useful in controlling ethnomedicine ubricant, in soap and
ethnomedicine candle making brush)
sand drift - Used for making
ink - Young one
- possess Allelopathic - Used as medicine
properties cooked and eaten
25
 Jatropha : Crop Yield

It is difficult to estimate unequivocally the yield of a plant
growing in different climatic and soil conditions
★ Yield : 2.0 ~ 12.5 tons/ha/year
Without With Irrigation

[Unit : ton per Hectare]
Irrigation
Low Normal High Low Normal High
Yr_1 0.10 0.25 0.40 Yr_1 0.75 1.25 2.50
Yr_2 0.50 1.00 1.50 Yr_2 1.00 1.50 3.00
Yr_3 0.75 1.25 1.75 Yr_3 4.25 5.00 5.00
Yr_4 0.90 1.75 2.25 Yr_4 5.25 6.25 8.00
Yr_5 1.10 2.00 2.75 Yr_5 5.25 8.00 12.50
※ Source : Center for Jatropha Promotion & Biodiesel in India

(http://www.jatrophaworld.org)
26
 Jatropha : Bio-Diesel Perspective

There is no statistics of Jatropha for biodiesel but India
has started cultivating Jatropha in huge areas and its
target is to replace 5% of diesel consumption.
[Unit : ton]
Country 2010 2012 2015 2020
India 800,000 2,000,000 4,000,000 8,000,000
Cambodia 200,000 600,000 1,200,000 2,000,000
Vietnam 400,000 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000
Indonesia 200,000 600,000 1,200,000 2,000,000
Total 1,600,000 4,200,000 8,400,000 15,000,000
※ Conservative conversion : two tones of biodiesel = one hectare
27
 Palm Oil : Production Forecast

Palm Oil represents 30% of the world vegetable oil.
Malaysia and Indonesia produce over 80% of the world
palm oil production.
Forecast of world Palm Oil Production
2006 2010 2015 2020
World Palm Oil (ton) 36,800,000(#) 44,730,630 57,088,878 72,861,483
Area (ha) 8,177,778 9,940,140 12,686,417 16,191,441
# : Indonesia produced 17 million ton of palm oil in 2006 and represents 43% of world production
* Assumption
- Annual growth rate : 5%
- Average 4.5 tones of palm oil yield per hectare (ranges from 4~6 tonnes per hectare)
* Source : Korean Energy Economics Institute
28
 Palm Oil : Bio-Diesel Growth Perspective

2006 2010 2015 2020
Aggressive 20% target 360,000 8,946,126 11,417,776 14,572,297
Moderate 10% target 360,000 4,473,063 5,708,888 7,286,148
16,000,000
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
Aggressive
8,000,000
Moderate
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
-
2006 2010 2015 2020
* Assumption
- Aggressive growth : 1% conversion(2006), 20%(2010~2020) for palm oil into biodiesel
- Moderate growth : 1% conversion(2006), 10%(2010~2020) for palm oil into biodiesel
29
 Feedstocks for Biodiesel

Global production was 3.9 bn litres (3.272 m TOE) in 2005
Vegetable oil & Biodiesel feedstock Ratio and Production(2005)
Bio-Diesel
Feedstock Vegetable Oil
Volume (TOE) Share
Palm 33% 33,000 1%
Soybean 31% 65,000 2%
Rapeseed 14% 2,716,000 83%
Sunflower 8% 425,000 13%
Peanut 5%
Cotton seed 4%
Coconut 3%
Olive 2%
Other 33,000 1%
Total 100% 100% 100%
※ Source : 1) IEA Energy Technology Essentials (January, 2007), 2) KIER
30
 Bio-Diesel trends by region

Million litres capacity
※ Source : F.O. Lichts
31
 Prospect and Segment : Aggressive growth case [Unit : ton]
2006 2010 2015 2020
Jatropha - 1,600,000 8,400,000 15,000,000
Palm Oil 360,000 8,946,126 11,417,776 14,572,297
Rapeseed 2,851,548 3,466,074 4,423,687 5,645,870
Sunflower seed 446,628 542,879 692,867 884,293
Soybean 68,712 83,520 106,595 136,045
Total 3,734,888 14,638,599 25,040,924 36,238,505
* Assumption
-Jatropha : based on yield and conversion ratio from 2010 onwards
- Palm Oil : 1% of palm oil converts to biodiesel in 2006, 20% from 2010
- Other feedstock : 5% of annual growth rate
32
 Prospect and Segment : Moderate growth case [Unit : ton]
2006 2010 2015 2020
Jatropha - 1,600,000 8,400,000 15,000,000
Palm Oil 360,000 4,473,063 5,708,888 7,286,148
Rapeseed 2,851,548 3,466,074 4,423,687 5,645,870
Sunflower seed 446,628 542,879 692,867 884,293
Soybean 68,712 83,520 106,595 136,045
Total 3,734,888 10,165,536 19,332,036 28,952,356
* Assumption
-Jatropha : based on yield and conversion ratio from 2010 onwards
- Palm Oil : 1% of palm oil converts to biodiesel in 2006, 10% from 2010
- Other feedstock : 5% of annual growth rate
33
Bio-Ethanol Ⅱ. Bio-Fuel
 Feedstock specifications
Feedstock production, costs, and emission data for bioethanol and
bio-diesel production
Cereals, Ligno-
Sugar beets Sugar cane
maize celluolsic
Fossil energy input (%) 60-80 N/A 10-12 (a)
Co-products - - Heat & Power Heat & Power
Installed capacity 19.5 US,

N/A 18 Brazil
(bn l/year) 5.0 China
Production cost ($/lge) 0.6-0.8 0.6 0.3-0.5 1.0 (b)
CO2 reduction (% c) 15-25 50-60 90 70
Pollutant abatement CO CO CO CO, NOx
Land use (lge/ha) 1,500-3,000 2,000-4,000 3,000-6,000 N/A
(a) Energy input may be higher than final ethanol energy, but most such energy comes from the biomass itself.
(b) Twice gasoline cost at $60/bbl. (c) Compared with gasoline (2.8 kg CO2/l) or conventional diesel.
※ Source : IEA Energy Technology Essentials (January, 2007)
34
 Key factors
◎ Can be blended to at least 10% in vehicles in OECD countries
; are blended up to 25% in Brazil
◎ Costs for creating “fuel-flexible” vehicles (can run on any

mixture of ethanol and gasoline) are on the order of €100-
200 per vehicle ; many such vehicles in U.S.
◎ Low-level ethanol blends reduce emissions of most

pollutants,
but can increase others (e.g. hydrocarbons, aldehydes).
Positive on net basis.
35
 Greenhouse Gas Reductions

Reductions in well-to-wheel CO2-equivalent GHG emissions per km, from
biofuels, compared to gasoline(for ethanol) and diesel fuel (for biodiesel)
※ Source : IEA estimates based on a review of recent studies
36
 Productions
Worldwide, Fuel Ethanol Production is Much Greater than Biodiesel.
Unit : million litres per year
※ Source : F.O. Lichts ★ Note : source IEA Bioethanol 33 bn litres, Biodiesel 3.9 bn litres (2005)
37
 Productions
Fuel Ethanol Production Trends by Region
※ Source : F.O. Lichts
38
 Possible Production Scenario

Bio-Ethanol Production : Past and Future?
※ Source : projections based on IEA review of recent policy initiatives around the world
39
Activities around the world Ⅱ. Bio-Fuel
 EU : targeting 5.75% of motor fuel use by 2010
 US : legislation still pending that could increase ethanol use

by 2010 to around 5% of gasoline; strong price incentive
already in place
 India : 5% ethanol blending required in some regions;

eventually whole country
 Latin America : new production initiatives in many countries;

export orientation
 Many other countries have recently announced various

incentives and targets
40
Prospect and Segment Ⅱ. Bio-Fuel
 Scenario Ⅰ: aggressive growth case [Unit : m TOE]
2006 2010 2015 2020
Bio-Diesel 3.735 14.639 25.041 36.239
Bio-Ethanol 29.625 38.832 54.465 76.389
Total 33.360 53.471 79.505 112.628

Diesel Ratio 0.25% 0.92% 1.50% 2.07%
(Bio-Diesel/World Diesel)
Consumption 1,124.988 1,211.932 1,273.753 1,338.727

World
Gasoline Ratio 2.63% 3.20% 4.28% 5. 71%
(Bio-Ethanol/World Gasoline)
* Assumption
- Bio-Diesel : assumed expectation based on aggressive prospect of Bio-Diesel
- Bio-Ethanol : 7% of annual growth rate
- Diesel consumption : 1.5% of annual growth rate to 2010, 1% from 2011
- Gasoline consumption : 1.5% of annual growth rate to 2010, 1% from 2011
41
Aggressive Penentration of Biofuel Energy
6.00% 5.71%
5.00%
4.28%
4.00%
3.20%
3.00% 2.63%
2.07%
2.00% 1.50%
0.92%
1.00%
0.25%
0.00%
2006 2010 2015 2020
year
Diesel Ratio Gasoline Ratio
42
 Scenario Ⅱ : moderate growth case [Unit : m

TOE]
2006 2010 2015 2020
Bio-Diesel 3.735 10.166 19.332 28.952
Bio-Ethanol 29.071 35.336 45.099 57.559
Total 32.806 45.502 64.431 86.512

Diesel Ratio 0.25% 0.64% 1.16% 1.65%
(Bio-Diesel/World Diesel)
Consumption 1,124.988 1,211.932 1,273.753 1,338.727

World
Gasoline Ratio 2.58% 2.92% 3.54% 4.30%
(Bio-Ethanol/World Gasoline)
* Assumption
- Bio-Diesel : assumed expectation based on moderate prospect of Bio-Diesel
- Bio-Ethanol : 5% of annual growth rate
- Diesel consumption : 1.5% of annual growth rate to 2010, 1% from 2011
- Gasoline consumption : 1.5% of annual growth rate to 2010, 1% from 2011
43
Moderate Penentration of Biofuel Energy
5.00%
4.50% 4.30%
4.00%
3.54%
3.50%
2.92%
3.00%
2.58%
2.50%
2.00% 1.65%
1.50% 1.16%
1.00% 0.64%
0.50% 0.25%
0.00%
2006 2010 2015 2020
year
Diesel Ratio Gasoline Ratio
44
 PV & Wind Power
 Bio-Fuel
☞  Nuclear Energy
01_ Nuclear Advantage
02_ Production
 Conclusion
45
Nuclear Advantage Ⅲ. Nuclear Energy
Nuclear Energy is the best Alternative Energy to replace

Fossil Fuel
◆ Coal is environmentally not benign and causes

global warming and acid rain
◆ Gas is very difficult to be transported in large quantities
◆ Renewable Energy is not cost effective and does not

contribute significantly to reduce fossil fuel
◆ Nuclear is the next best alternative energy source with

potential for scaling up
46
Production Ⅲ. Nuclear Energy
Nuclear Power has represented the main production of

the world electricity generation.
20000.0
18000.0
16000.0
14000.0
12000.0
10000.0
8000.0
6000.0
4000.0
2000.0
0.0
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
1998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
Nuclear World Electricity
※ Source : BP’s statistical review full report workbook 2007
47
Prospect and Segment Ⅲ. Nuclear Energy
The annual growth rate of nuclear power generation will

enter a step change post 2010 period when new pebble
bed reactor technology will be globally applied
2% of growth rate : 2006~2010

10% of growth rate : 2011~2020
◎ Forecast of growth rate
- 437 working reactors operating worldwide currently
; the average unit capacity : 815 MW (utilization rate : 90%)
- 30 under construction
- 74 planned and 182 proposed
- Construction period : approx. 5 years
- Recent single unit capacity : 1,600 MW (Olkiluoto, Filand)
- China started to build nuclear power stations
; 11 reactor operating, 4 under construction, 23 in the planning stages and
54 proposed
48
 Aggressive growth scenario [Unit : m

TOE]
2006 2010 2015 2020
Nuclear Generation 635.5 687.9 1,107.8 1,784.2
Consumption 4,306.3 4,846.8 5,618.7 6,513.7

Electricity
Ratio 14.76% 14.19% 19.72% 27.39%
Consumption 10,878.5 12,007.8 13,257.6 14,637.5

Primary
Energy
Ratio 5.84% 5.73% 8.36% 12.19%
* Assumption
- Nuclear Energy growth rate : 2.0%(2006~2010), 10.0%(2011~2020),
Production in 2006 : 635.5 m TOE (2,808.1 TWh)
- World Electricity growth rate : 3.0%, Production in 2006 : 4,306.3 m TOE (19,027.7 TWh)

Production in 2006 : 10,878.5 m TOE
49
 Aggressive growth scenario
Aggressive Penentration of Nuclear Energy
30.00%
27.39%
25.00%
19.72%
20.00%
14.76% 14.19%
15.00%
12.19%
10.00% 8.36%
5.84% 5.73%
5.00%
0.00%
2006 2010 2015 2020
year
Primary Energy Ratio Electricity Ratio
50
 PV & Wind Power
 Bio-Fuel
 Nuclear Energy
☞  Conclusion
01_ Perspective of Energy Consumption
02_ Perspective of CO2 Emission
51
Perspective of Energy Ⅳ. Conclusion
Consumption
 Scenario Ⅰ: aggressive growth case for renewables
[Unit : m
TOE]
2006 2010 2015 2020
Annual
Items
Growth Rate
Share Share Share Share
2.5%(06-10)
Primary Energy 10,942.5 100% 12,125.0 100% 13,495.6 100% 15,144.5 100%
2.0%(11-20)
2.0%(06-10)
Nuclear 635.5 5.81% 687.9 5.67% 1,107.9 8.21% 1,784.3 11.78%
10.0%(11-20)
Hydroelectricity 2% 688.1 6.29% 744.8 6. 14% 822.3 6.09% 907.9 6.00%
Gas 3% 2,574.9 23.53% 2,898.1 23.90% 3,359.7 24.89% 3,894.8 25.72%
Oil 1% 3,889.8 35.55% 4,047.7 33.38% 4,254.2 31.52% 4,471.2 29.52%
PV&Wind : 20%
Renewables 64.1 0.59% 117.2 0.97% 238.0 1. 76% 507.0 3.35%
Biofuels : 7%
Coal balance 3,090.1 28.24% 3,629.3 29.93% 3,713.5 27. 52% 3,579.3 23.63%
52
Consumption
40.00%
35.00%
30.00%
25.00%
20.00%
(Share)
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
2006 2,010.0 2015 2020
(Year)
Oil Coal Gas Hydroelectricity Nuclear Renewables
53
Consumption
 Scenario Ⅱ : moderate growth case for renewables
[Unit : m
TOE]
2006 2010 2015 2020
Annual
Items
Growth Rate
Same of
Primary Energy 10,942.5 100% 12,125.0 100% 13,495.6 100% 15,144.5 100%
aggressive
Nuclear balance 637.4 5.82% 708.1 5.84% 1,177.9 8.73% 1,996.5 13.18%
Hydroelectricity 2% 688.1 6.29% 744.8 6.14% 822.3 6.09% 907.9 6.00%
Gas 3% 2,574.9 23.55% 2,898.1 23.90% 3,359.7 24.89% 3,894.8 25.72%
Oil 1% 3,889.8 35.55% 4,047.7 33.38% 4,254.2 31.52% 4,471.2 29.52%
PV&Wind : 15%
Renewables 62.2 0.57% 97.0 0.80% 168.0 1.24% 294.8 1.95%
Biofuels : 5%
Same of
Coal 3,090.1 28.24% 3,629.3 29.93% 3,713.5 27.52% 3,579.3 23.63%
aggressive
54
Consumption
40.00%
35.00%
30.00%
25.00%
20.00%
(Share)
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
2006 2010 2015 2020
(Year)
Oil Coal Gas Hydroelectricity Nuclear Renewables
55
Perspective of CO2 Emission Ⅳ. Conclusion
[Unit : m ton]
CO2 Emission 2006 2010 2015 2020

Items
Factors
Primary Energy total 33,047.6 100% 36,950.8 100% 38,979.2 100% 40,082.7 100%
Nuclear 0 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
Hydroelectricity 0 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
2.093 ton·CO2
Gas 5,389.3 16.31% 6,065.7 16.42% 7,031.8 18.04% 8,151.7 20.34%
/TOE
3.070 ton·CO2
Oil 11,941.7 36.13% 12,426.6 33.63% 13,060.4 33.51% 13,726.7 34.25%
/TOE
Renewables 0 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00% 0.0 0.00%
5.086 ton·CO2
Coal 15,716.7 47.56% 18,458.6 49.95% 18,887.0 48.45% 18,204.3 45.42%
/TOE
※ CO₂emission factor source : emission factor brochure 2004 by IPCC
56
Perspective of CO2 Emission Ⅳ. Conclusion
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
Gas
25,000
Oil
Coal
20,000
Total
15,000
CO?Emission (m ton)
10,000
5,000
0
2006 2010 2015 2020
Year
57

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A Sustainable Energy Scenario

through 2020 based on PV & Wind, Bio-Fuel,

EWG Business Network

By Lim Man Onn

Ⅰ PV & Wind Power

02_ Wind Power

03_ Prospect and Segment

Poly-Crystalline Ingot Wafer

 Cumulative installed PV Power (in IEA’s reporting

※ Source : Report IEA-PVPS T1-15 : 2006

 Total installed PV Power by 2005 (in IEA’s reporting countries)

※ Source : Report IEA-PVPS T1-15 : 2006

 PV yearly module production by regions 1,532

China 10.3 38.0 27.7 268.9%

Share of PV module production by company in 2005 (%)

※ Source : Report IEA-PVPS T1-15 : 2006

 Indicative installed PV system price in 2005

Off-Grid (per W) On-Grid (per W)

※ Source : Report IEA-PVPS T1-15 : 2006

◎ High growth expectation

◆ Scenario Ⅰ: Aggressive growth : 20% p.a.

 Annual Generation from Wind (in IEA’s reporting countries)

※ Source : IEA Wind Annual Report in 2005

 National statistics in 2005

 Increasing average size of new turbine installed (IEA wind member

※ Source : IEA Wind Annual Report in 2005

Many European countries have established high targets for

Finland 31% of electricity consumption by 2010. 8.4TWh/year. 500 MW approx.

Denmark 20% of electricity consumption (end of 2003)

UK 10% electricity supplied by 2010, subject to cost to consumer being acceptable

Ireland 3.2% of electricity generated by 2010. capacity of 500MW (in 2005)

◆ Scenario Ⅰ: Aggressive growth : 20% p.a.

 Convert electricity from PV & Wind to TOE (Ton of Oil Equivalent)

- Average Efficiency : 17%

◎ Wind power generated electricity in 2005

PV generated Power : 188,000 TOE

 Scenario Ⅰ: aggressive growth case

PV 0.23 0.47 1.16 2.90

Wind Power 30.49 63.22 157.32 391.47

Total 30.72 63.69 158.49 394.37

Consumption 4,306.30 4,846.78 5,618.74 6,513.67

World Consumption 10,878.50 12,007.83 13,257.61 14,637.48

- World Primary Energy growth rate : 2.5%(2006~2010), 2.0%(2011~2020),

 Scenario Ⅰ: aggressive growth case

Aggressive Penentration of PV & Wind Power

Electricity Ratio Primary Energy Ratio

 Scenario Ⅱ : moderate growth case

PV 0.23 0.38 0.76 1.53

Wind Power 29.22 51.11 102.79 206.75

Total 29.44 51.48 103.55 208.28

Consumption 4,306.30 4,846.78 5,618.74 6,513.67

World Consumption 10,878.50 12,007.83 13,257.61 14,637.48

- World Primary Energy growth rate : 2.5%(2006~2010), 2.0%(2011~2020),

 Scenario Ⅱ : moderate growth case

Moderate Penentration of PV & Wind Power

Electricity Ratio Primary Energy Ratio

03_ Activities around the world

04_ Prospect and Segment

• Soybean oil : The United States of America

• Rapeseed and Sunflower oil : Europe

Jatropha Palm Fruit

 Feed Stock Production per Hectare & Cost of Bio-diesel Production

Bio-diesel is clean fuel with high cetane index of 46~70