Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 23

Using ANFIS to Predict

Climate in Indonesia
The Houw Liong
P.M.Siregar
Outline
• Soft Computing: ANFIS & Fuzzy Clustering

• Fuzzy Rules & ANFIS


• Fuzzy Clustering
• Time Series of Sun Spot Numbers, Rainfall
& Water Level === Weather/Climate
Forecasting
• System Dynamics
• Conclusion
Sugeno Fuzzy Rules

• For x is Ai and y is Bj then z is pi*x +


qj*y + rij

• Learning Rules :
• δv_k = - η∂e_tot/∂v_k
Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy
Inference System
layer 1
layer 2 layer 4
A1
layer 3 x y
∏ w1
A2 N layer 5
w1

B1 N w2
∏ w2
B2 x y
ANFIS

Layer 1 :
• O1,i   Ai ( x ), for i  1, 2, or
O1,i   Bi2 ( y ), for i  3, 4,
• x and y are input of ode -i and O1,i is
membership function of fuzzy set
A=(A1,A2) and B=(B1 ,B2 ) with
membership function A is :

• 1
µA ( x ) = 2b
x −c i
1+
ai
• ai,bi, and ci are parameters
• Layer 2 : output as the product of
input membership functions :

O 2,i = w 1 = µ Ai (x) µ Bi ( y) i = 1,2


• Layer 3 in node -i :

wi
O 3,i = w i = , i = 1,2
w1 + w 2

• Layer 4 : Node -i is
adaptive node with
function node :

O 4,i = w i f i = w i (p i x + q i y + ri )
ANFIS

• Layer 5 : final output :


w f i i
O5   wi fi  i

i w i
i
Solar activities & Climate
Cloud detrainment
Microphysics Cumulus

Cloud Effects
Cloud Fraction

Solar and its activities PBL


Surface Flux
SH,LH

Incoming
Surface SW,LW surface T,Qv,Wind
Emisi/albedo

Earth Surface
S.Duhau : Temp vs Solar
Activities
S. Duhau : Temp Anomalies
SSN, AA Index & CME
Cosmic ray & Sunspot
Sunspot Number

100,00
150,00
200,00

0,00
50,00
1948
1950
1952 L
E
1954
L

1956
E

1958
L

1960
E

1962
1964
E L

1966
1968
E

1970
1972
L

1974
E

1976
Years
E

sspot 1978
Elnino-Lanina Years

1980
L

1982
E

1984
1986
LL E

1988
1990
L

1992
1994
E L

1996
1998
E

2000
2002
L E
Pontianak Region
Correlation Sunspot vs Precip =0.88

200.00 200.00
Sunspot/Precip

150.00 150.00
100.00
100.00
50.00
50.00 0.00
0.00 -50.00
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
Years

ave-sunspot ave-precip
Jaya Pura Region

350.00 200.00
300.00
250.00 150.00
200.00
mm/month

100.00
150.00
100.00 50.00
50.00
0.00 0.00
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
Years

Avg precip sspot


Jabodetabek

250.00 200.00
200.00 150.00
150.00
mm/month

100.00
100.00
50.00 50.00

0.00 0.00
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984

1996
1999
2002
1948
1951
1954

1987
1990
1993
Years

Avg Precip Avg-sspot


• Fuzzy c-means Algorithm
• Fix c (2≤c≤ n) and select a value for parameter
m’, initialize the partition matrix U(0),
membership functions and the centers . Each
step in this algorithm will labeled r, where
r=0,1,2,..

• Repeat updating the partition matrix for rth


step,U (r) until
• U ( r +1)
−U (r )
≤ε
• Calculate the new membership
functions

− 1

 (r ) 
2 /( m'− 1) 
   
( r + 1)  c d  
µ =  ∑  ik  
ik  j =1 (r )  
  d jk  
   
• set r=r+1
• Calculate the new c centers :

n m '
∑ µik .xkj
vij = k = 1
n m '
∑ µik
k =1
Fuzzy Clustering
Long Time Prediction Based on
Sunspot Number
ANFIS PREDICTION

200
Numbers Sunspot

150

100

50

0
1948

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

2012
Years

ANFIS Prediction Obs. Sunsspot


Conclusions

• ANFIS and Fuzzy Clustering can be


used in prediction of climate in
Indonesia

• Solar Activity is the main factor that


determined climate in Indonesia