Exercise 1: Q.

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1. For each of the following, indicate whether the type of probability involved is an example of classical probability, empirical probability or subjective probability: i) The next toss of a fair coin will land on head.
Classical. Equally likely to occur. Fair chance

ii) Barcelona will win soccers World Cup the next time the competition is held.
Subjective. Based on guess, opinion.

iii) The sum of the faces of two dice will be 7.

Classical. Equally likely to occur. Fair chance.

iv) The train taking a commuter to work will be more than 10 minutes late.
Empirical. Based on actual experience, observation.
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Q.2
A test contains two multiple-choice questions. If a student makes a random guess to answer each question, how many outcomes are possible? Draw a tree diagram for this experiment. (Hint: Consider two outcomes for each question either the answer is correct or it is wrong).
Outcomes Q.2 Q.1 C C

CC

W C

CW WC WW
2

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Q.3
Refer to question 2. List all the outcomes included in each of the following events and mention which are simple and which are compound events. i) Both answers are correct.
{CC}. Simple event.

ii) At most one answer is wrong.

{CW, WC, CC}. Compound event.

iii) The first answer is correct and the second is wrong.

{CW}. Simple event.

iv) Exactly one answer is wrong.

{CW, WC}. Compound event.
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Q.4

State whether the following events are independent or dependent. i) Getting a raise in salary and purchasing a new car.
Dependent.

ii) Having a large shoe size and having a high IQ.

Independent.

iii) A father being left-handed and a daughter being lefthanded.

Independent.

iv) Eating an excessive amount of ice cream and smoking an excessive amount of cigarettes.
Independent.
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Q.5
88% of American children are covered by some type of health insurance. If four children are selected at random, what is the probability that none are covered?

P(H) = 0.88 P(H) = 1 0.88 = 0.12 P(none are covered) = 0.12 x 0.12 x 0.12 x 0.12 = 0.0002

Note: You can draw a tree diagram for all 4 selections too.
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Q.6
A box of nine golf gloves contains two left-handed gloves and seven right-handed gloves.
i) If two gloves are randomly selected from the box without replacement, what is the probability that both gloves selected will be right-handed?
1/8 LH 2/9 7/8 LH

P(RH RH) = 7 x 6 = 7 9 8 12

RH

2/8 7/9 RH 6/8

LH

RH
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Q.6
ii) If three gloves are randomly selected from the box without replacement, what is the probability that all three will be left-handed? LH P(LH LHLH) = 2 x 1 x 0 = 0 9 8

0/7 1/8 LH 2/9 7/8 LH

RH

2/8 7/9 RH 6/8

LH

RH

7/7 RH LH iii) If 3 gloves are randomly selected 1/7 from the box without replacement, what is the probability that at least 6/7 RH one glove will be right-handed? LH 1/7 P(at least one glove will be RH) = 6/7 RH 1- P(none will be RH) =10=1 2/7 LH 5/7 RH
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Q.7
A financial analyst estimates that the probability that the economy will experience a recession in the next 12 months is 25%. She also believes that if the economy encounters recession, the probability that her mutual fund will increase in value is 20%. If there is no recession, the probability that the mutual fund will increase in value is 75%. Find the probability that the mutual funds value will increase. 0.2 R 0.25 0.8 IMF Let recession be R, and increase in mutual fund be IMF P(IMF) = P(RIMF) + P(RIMF) = (0.25 x 0.2) + (0.75 x 0.75) = 0.05 + 0.5625 = 0.6125

IMF

0.75 0.75 R 0.25

IMF

IMF

Q.8
A car rental agency currently has 44 cars available. 18 of which have a GPS navigation system. One of the 44 cars is selected at random, find the probability that this car, i) has a GPS navigation system. P(GPS) = 18/44 = 9/22

Ii)

does not have a GPS navigation system.

P(GPS) = 1 P(GPS) = 1 9/22 = 13/22

Now, two cars are selected at random from these 44 cars. Find the probability that at least one of these cars have GPS navigation system. P(at least one has GPS) = 1- P(none has GPS) = 1-P(GPSGPS) = 1 (13/22 x 13/22) = 1 169/484 = 315/484 = 0.6508 Note: Draw a tree diagram to see clearly.

Q.9
A recent study of 300 patients found that of 100 alcoholic patients, 87 had elevated cholesterol levels, and 200 non-alcoholic patients, 43 had elevated cholesterol levels. i) If a patient is selected at random, find the probability that the patient is the following, an alcoholic with elevated cholesterol level. P(ALCEC) = 1 x 87 = 29 = 0.29 EC 87/100 3 100 100 ALC 1/3 13/100 EC a non-alcoholic. P(ALC) = 2/3 a non-alcoholic with non-elevated cholesterol level P(ALCEC) = 2 x 157 = 157 = 0.5233 3 200 300

2/3

43/200 ALC

EC

157/200 EC

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Q.9
Are the events alcoholic and non-elevated cholesterol levels independent? Are they mutually exclusive? Explain why or why not. P(ALC EC) = 1 x 13 = 13 = 0.433 3 100 300 P(ALC).P(EC) = 1 x [(1 x 13) + (2 x 157)] 3 [ 3 100) (3 200)] = 1 x 17 3 30 = 17/90 = 0.1889

Since P(ALC EC) P(ALC).P(EC), so these two events are NOT independent.
From (i), P(ALC EC) = 0.5233 which is 0, then these two events are NOT mutually exclusive.
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Q.10
The probability that a randomly selected student from college is female is 0.55 and that a student works more than 10 hours per week is 0.62. If these two events are independent, find the probability that a randomly selected student is a i) male and works for more than 10 hours per week. P(F) = 0.55, P(M10) = 0.62 M10 M10 Since both events are independent, M 0.275 0.175 0.45 P(F).P(M10)) = P(FM10) = 0.55(0.62) = 0.341 F 0.341 0.209 0.55 P(MM10) = 0.62-0.341 = 0.275 0.62 0.38 1.00

ii)

female or works for more than 10 hours per week.

P(FUM10) = P(F) + P(M10) P(FM10) = 0.55 + 0.62 -0.341 = 0.829
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Q.11
A housing survey studied how City Sun homeowners go to work. Suppose that the survey consisted of a sample of 1,000 homeowners and 1,000 renters.

1505 495 1000

i)

1000

2000

If a respondent is selected at random, what is the probability that he or she drives to work? P(DW) = 1505/2000 = 0.7525 drives to work and is a homeowner?

P(DWHO) = 824/2000 = 0.412 does not drive to work or is a renter? P(DW R) = P(DW) + P(R) P(DWR) = 495 + 1000 319 2000 2000 2000 = 147 = 0.588 250

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Q.11
ii) Given that the respondent drives to work, what then is the probability that he or she is a homeowner? P(HO| DW) = P(HODW) = 824/2000 = 824 = 0.5475 P(DW) 1505/2000 1505 Iii) Given that the respondent drives to work, what then is the probability that he or she is a renter? P(HO| DW) = P(HODW) = 681/2000 = 681 = 0.4525 P(DW) 1505/2000 1505 iv) Are the two events, driving to work and the respondent is a homeowner, independent? P(DWHO) = 824/2000 = 0.412 P(DW).P(HO) = 1505.1000 = 0.3763 2000 2000 Since P(DWHO) P(DW).P(HO), so these two events are NOT independent
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Q.12
Due to the devaluation which occurred in country PQR, the consumers of that country were buying fewer products than before the devaluation. Based on a study conducted, the results were reported as the following: Brands purchased Same, S Changed, C Fewer, F Same, SM 10 262 272 14 82 96 More, M 24 8 32 48 352 400

What is the probability that a consumer selected at random: i) purchased fewer products than before? P(F) = 272/400 = 17/25 @ 0.68 ii) purchased the same number or same brands?

Iii) purchased more products and changed brands? P(MC) =8/400 = 1/50 @ 0.02 iv) given that a consumer changed the brands they purchased, what then is the probability that the consumer purchased fewer products than before?

P(SM S) = P(SM) + P(S) P(SMM) =96 + 48 -14 = 130 = 13 @ 0.325 400 400 400 400 40

P(F|C) = P(FC) = 262/400 = 131 @ 0.7443 P(C) 352/400 176

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Q.13
A soft-drink bottling company maintains records concerning the number of unacceptable bottles of soft drink from the filling and capping machines. Based on past data, the probability that a bottle came from machine I and was non-conforming is 0.01 and the probability that a bottle came from machine II and was non-confirming is 0.025. Half of the bottles are filled on machine I and the other half are filled on machine II. If a filled bottle of soft drink is selected at random, what is the probability that: I NC C 0.01 0.49 0.50 i) ii) iii) II 0.025 0.475 0.50 0.035 0.965 1.00

it is a non-confirming bottle? P(NC) = 0.035 it was filled on machine I and is a conforming bottle?P(IC) = 0.49 it was filled on machine II or is a conforming bottle? P(II C) = P(II) + P(C) P(IIC) = 0.5 + 0.965 0.475 = 0.99

iv) suppose you know that the bottle was produced on machine I, what is the probability that it is non-conforming? P(NC|I) = P(NCI) = 0.01 = 0.02 P(I) 0.5

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Q.14
Each year, ratings concerning the performance of new cars during the first 90 days of use, are compiled . Based on a study, the probability that a new car needs a warranty repair is 0.04, the probability that a car manufactured by Country ABC is 0.60, and the probability that a new car needs a warranty repair and is manufactured by Country ABC is 0.025. ABC ABC WR WR 0.025 0.575 0.015 0.385 0.04 0.96

0.60 0.40 1.00 i) What is the probability that a car needs a warranty repair given that Country ABC manufactured it? P(WR|ABC) = P(WRABC) = 0.025 = 0.0417
P(ABC) 0.60 ii) What is the probability that a car needs a warranty repair given that Country ABC did not manufactured it? P(WR|ABC) = P(WRABC) = 0.015 = 0.0375 P(ABC) 0.40 iii) Are the need for a warranty repair and country manufacturing the car independent? P(WR).P(ABC) = 0.04 x 0.60 = 0.024 P(WRABC) = 0.025 Since P(WR).P(ABC) P(WRABC) , these two events are NOT independent. 17

Q.15
CASTWAY is a direct selling company which has 350 authorized sales agents from all over the country. It is known that 168 of them are male. 40% of male sales agents have a permanent job while half of female sale agents do not have a permanent job. i) Draw a tree diagram to illustrate the above events. PM ii) What is the probability that 0.4 a randomly selected sales agent has a permanent job?

12/25

0.6
0.5

PM
PM
iii)

P(PM) = P(MPM) +P(F PM) = ((12/25) x 0.4) + ((13/25)x0.5) = 0.1920 + 0.26 = 0.452
is a male given that he does not have permanent job?

13/25

0.5

PM

P(M|PM) = P(MPM) = P(MPM) P(PM) 1- P(PM) = (12/25) x 0.6 (1-0.452) = 0.288 = 0.5255 18 0.548