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Rescheduling
National Workshop on Capacity-Building For
External Debt Management in The Era of
Rapid Globalization
August 30 – 31, 2005
Francis Odubekun
Government Debt Issuance & Management Advisor
US Treasury Department – Office of Technical Assistance
1
Debt Rescheduling
Debt Rescheduling - a form of debt re-organization in
which debtors and creditors negotiate to defer payments
of principal and/or interest falling, due in a specified
interval for repayment on a new schedule.
The term “Restructuring” is used to include the
rescheduling of interest and principal payments as well as
a write-down on the debt principal or interest rate.
Conventionally, Debt Restructuring is the process of
rescheduling medium- to long-term debt maturities or
refinancing short-term debts and/or interests.
2
Historical Perspective
Debt has been the largest source of capital flows to
developing countries in the past 50 years.
Lending increased drastically starting in the 1970s,
and today the total external indebtedness of
developing countries is close to $3 trillion –
representing about 42.5% of their GDP.
Long-term foreign debt owed or guaranteed by
governments is $2.2 trillion or 75% of all long-term
debt.
Given their weak economies, developing countries
have found it difficult to service such debts.
3
International Debt Crises
Long history of sovereign debt problems and crises.
Includes advanced economies.
During 1930s Great Depression, both the U.K. and
France defaulted on their debts.
During latter 1900s, Latin America became more
associated with debt payment problems,
1914 - Mexico suspended its debt payments.
1956 – Following Argentina’s debt problems, a
group of wealthy industrialized nations met in Paris
to develop a solution to problems in Argentina - led
to what is now known as the “Paris Club”.
Since the first case involving Argentina in 1956,
Paris Club has reached 347 agreements concerning
77 debtor nations
4
80s & 90s
Following huge lending increases in lending in the
mid-1970s, mainly in the form of syndicated bank
loans, debt crises swept through developing world,
starting with Mexico in August of 1982.
1994 - “Tequila Crisis” started in Mexico - spread
through Latin America and other parts of the
developing world.
1997/98 - debt crisis in East Asia
1998 - Russian default
2001 - Turkey
2002 - Largest sovereign default in history occurred
when Argentina defaulted on U$141 billion of public
debt.
5
MOVE FROM BANK LENDING TO
LARGE-SCALE BOND ISSUANCE
Throughout this debt crisis prone period, there
were many efforts to restructure sovereign
debts,
Each effort was a problem in itself.
This problem became greater with the
introduction of bond lending.
Whereas the restructuring of official debt and
syndicated bank loans involved sometimes
dozens of lenders, the introduction of bonds
expanded the base to involve hundreds if not
thousands of creditors.
6
Short-Term Objectives Of Debt
Restructuring
Solve The Liquidity Crisis By:
Deferring or refinancing most current debt
maturities
Spreading bunched maturities over several years
Provide New Credits To
Ease the liquidity crisis
Finance imports essential for producing exports
that will generate foreign currency
7
MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM OBJECTIVES OF
DEBT RESTRUCTURING
8
What Factors Force States To
Reschedule Debts ?
Petro-dollar recycling
12
EARLY APPROACHES TO THE DEBT
CRISIS
Focus was on re-scheduling large, middle-income countries such as
Brazil and Mexico, as they presumably posed the greatest threat to
the world financial system
Later realization of the uniqueness of each debtor country's debt
situation, economy, and debt service capacity, creditor governments
agreed to manage the debt crisis on a case-by-case basis
Became evident that many debtors' economic problems were more
structural than had been assumed and required a longer-term
response from debtors and creditors alike
Meanwhile, private capital from within these countries fled abroad
seeking greater and more secure rates of return. This Capital flight
exacerbated debtors' difficulties.
13
Baker Plan
In 1985, the Baker Plan embraced a new
strategy for managing the debt of middle-
income countries. It analyzed a debtor
country's adjustment program, then increased
bank lending to support policy efforts while
continuing to monitor the results through the
IMF.
Baker Plan made new money available to
sustain levels of investment necessary to
restore growth and allow the major debtors to
outgrow their debt
14
The Brady Plan
The Brady Plan acknowledged the need to combine
the objectives of the debt strategy with those of
development policies.
First among the Brady Plan's innovative elements
was its explicit recognition of the need for
commercial debt reduction and for reducing debt
service.
Secondly, the Brady initiative made IMF and World
Bank funds (as well as contributions by
governments, particularly, that of the Japanese)
available to support debt reduction operations.
15
Brady Plan
In May 1989, IMF Board agreed to guidelines
defining its role in the new third world debt
strategy.
Guidelines provided for separate funds to be
devoted by the IMF to debt reduction
25% of a country's extended fund facility or
standby loan arrangement to be "set aside" and
Up to 40% of a debtor country's quota to be
devoted to interest support
16
Brady Plan
Mexico's debt deal was the first comprehensive deal within the Brady
initiative. Banks involved in the negotiations had three options.
First, banks could exchange old loans for new bonds at a discount of
35% of their face value, keeping interest rates at market levels
(equivalent to LIBOR + 13/16bps)
Alternately, the banks could exchange old debt for face-value new
bonds (called par bonds) bearing fixed interest rates of 6.25%.
18
Mexican Brady Deal
Both options also provided for 30 year bonds, whose principal was
guaranteed (collateralized) with loans provided by the IMF, World
Bank, Japan, and Mexican reserves used to purchase U.S. Treasury
zero-coupons
19
Mexican Brady’s “Value Recovery Clause”
20
Mexican Brady Deal
When Mexico signed the deal, its total debt stock was U$95.6 billion
Only the share of the long-term debt with the commercial banks was
subject to restructuring.
The debt value involved in the agreement was about U$49 billion,
roughly half of the total debt
Principal reduction = $19.7 billion (40%)
Interest reduction = $22.8 billion (47%)
New money = $6.4billion (13%)
Most banks opted for the par bond, implying interest rate reduction
($22.8 billion, or 46.7% of the total).
Other banks ($19.7 billion, or 40% of the total) chose to reduce the
principal;
A few offered new loans ($6.4 billion, or 13.1% of the total).
21
Debt Conversion Programs
22
Debt Conversion Programs
23
Debt /Equity Swap
The central bank of the host country redeems the debt in local
currency, usually at an implied exchange rate somewhere between
the face value and the secondary market value of the paper.
The foreign company uses this local currency to make the approved
investment via purchase of shares or an injection of capital.
According to IMF research, an estimated U.S. $33.6 billion of
commercial debt was extinguished through ongoing official
commercial debt conversion programs between 1985 and 1990.
Chile demonstrates an impressive example, where the conversion of
almost 70% of the commercial debt in 1985 overcame the debt
overhang significantly and helped the country return to international
capital markets. .
Several Latin American countries have successful debt-equity
programs
24
DEBT CONVERSION PROGRAM
RESULTS
Positive Debt Conversion Results Include:
Major reduction in commercial debt
Privatization
25
OTHER DEBT RESTRUCTURING ISSUES
While some countries have survived the crisis, many others, despite their
efforts, show clear signs that the debt burden is intolerable and its servicing
requirements exorbitant.
Obviously, the poorest and most heavily indebted countries have different
needs than lower-middle-income debtors. The debt problem of the poorer
developing countries was qualitatively different from that of the large middle-
income countries.
Many of the debt-distressed poor countries had a larger debt burden in
relation to their economic size and potential.
Moreover, these countries relied heavily on the export earnings of one or two
commodities.
A significant decline in the terms of trade for these commodities severely
disrupted the countries' capacity to service debt or resume growth.
Recent developments combine the goals of debt relief and development
Because the commercial debt of the poorest countries is small in absolute
terms, future measures to help these debt-distressed countries must
emphasize grant or highly concessional external finance as well as greater
debt reduction.
Consensus that creditors should afford the poorest debtors even more
generous terms
26
OTHER DEBT BURDEN ALLEVIATION
PROPOSALS
consolidated
Have interest rates on non-concessional debt.
29
Role of Paris & London Clubs
31
LONDON CLUB
A forum for rescheduling credits extended by
commercial banks (without a creditor-government
guarantee).
Negotiations often take place in London,
Informal body comprising commercial banks exposed to
third World debt.
Like Paris Club, the London Club works to reduce
developing countries' immediate debt servicing burdens.
“Membership" is fluid
No formal mandate.
In the London Club, the interests of the creditor banks
are represented by a steering committee composed of
those banks with the greatest exposure to the debtor
country in question.
32
London Club Paris Club
London Club reschedules commercial debts The Paris Club reschedules debts
debts owed to official creditors.
The interests of the creditor banks are In the Paris Club, more often than
represented by a steering committee not, the creditors are
composed of those banks with the represented by the most
greatest exposure to the debtor country influential among them,
in question regardless of their relative
As a rule, the London Club does not stake in the restructuring in
reschedule interest payments, instead, question
commercial banks provide the country Paris Club reschedules both
with a "new money" loan as part of the principal and interest
rescheduling package. Whereas the London Club prefers
London Club generally refuses consolidation them to exceed two or three
periods of more than one year years, however, the Paris
London Club may reschedule a debt without Club has slowly expanded its
requiring the debtor nation to conclude a consolidation periods
standby agreement with the International Paris Club requires an IMF
Monetary Fund (IMF). arrangement
London Club debtors enjoy more flexibility,
but incur more expense, than their Paris
Club counterparts.
33
STEPS INVOLVED IN A LONDON CLUB
RESTRUCTURING
34
THE ROLE OF THE IMF AND WORLD BANK
37
IMF
40
NEW PROPOSALS FOR SOVEREIGN DEBT
RESTRUCTURING
While the restructuring of official debt and syndicated
bank loans involved sometimes dozens of lenders, the
use of bonds involves hundreds if not thousands of
creditors.
Widespread agreement for the need for a sovereign
debt restructuring process,
Disagreement over what the actual process should be.
A framework will need to protect the rights of creditors
and debtors, and protect debtors from civil law suits
during the structuring process.
Process should prevent rogue vulture hedge funds from
delaying or otherwise disrupting the restructuring
process and from profiting from others’ efforts to forgive
and restructure outstanding debt.
41
Three Basic Approaches
• SDRM proposal calls for the creation of an
institution to act as an arbiter in a new
formalized process which would work along
the lines of an international bankruptcy court.
• “Collective Action Clauses” to allow a majority
of creditors to set the terms of restructuring
• Adapts U.S. sovereign bankruptcy law, known
as “Chapter 9”, to the needs of developing
countries
42
SOVEREIGN DEBT
RESTRUCTURING MECHANISM
restructuring decisions,
A legal “stay” against claims by creditors,
Priority financing.
43
Collective Action Clauses
46
English vs. New York Law
49
THANK YOU
50