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Product diversification in the European banking industry : Risk and loan pricing implications
Laetitia LEPETIT, Emmanuelle NYS, Philippe ROUS, Amine TARAZI
1. 2.
Implications for the safety of the banking system It is not clear whether by widening their range of products banks improve their risk/return trade off and their default risk. The provision of a larger set of products increases the incentives for cross-subsidisation which may distort risk exposure
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PRESENTATION
1. Relationship between the changing structure of bank income and risk in the European banking industry
Recent US studies find no gains from diversification and in some cases higher risk (De Young and Roland 2001; Stiroh, 2004). Do we obtain similar results for Europe?
3. Conclusion
Product diversification in the European banking industry: Risk and loan pricing 4
1. Bank risk and product diversification Degree of diversification : an income structure approach
We split our samples into different panels of banks on the basis of the value of the ratio of net non interest income to net operating income (NNII): diversified banks for which the value of the NNII ratio is higher than the third quartile (Q75), non diversified banks with a NNII ratio lower than the first quartile (Q25). Our diversification criteria is also disaggregated to allow for deeper insights. We distinguish two components of NNI: - ratio of net commission and fee income to net operating income (COM) - ratio of net trading income to net operating income (TRAD)
Product diversification in the European banking industry: Risk and loan pricing
1. Bank risk and product diversification Degree of diversification and risk : stylised facts
We conduct univariate mean tests and spearman rank correlation tests : Using a set of risk measures and probability of failure measures based on accounting data SDROA, SDROE, CVROA, CVROE, LLP, Z-scores and market data SD daily returns, BETA, Specific Risk, Z-scores, Distance to Default H0 : The level of risk of diversified banks is not higher than the level of risk of non diversified banks H1 : The level of risk of diversified banks is higher than the level of risk of non diversified banks
Product diversification in the European banking industry: Risk and loan pricing 7
Product diversification, risk and default risk : results based on daily market data (1996-2002)
Risk Measures SDRET NNII > Q75 Mean (Obs.) 0.05 39 0.66 39 0.04 39 37.30 39 15.51 38 BETA RSPEC Insolvency risk measures MDZ DD
Product diversification in the European banking industry: Risk and loan pricing
Product diversification, risk and default risk : results based on daily market data and for the two components, trading income and commission and fee income (1996-2002)
Risk Measures SDRET COM > Q75 Mean (Obs.) COM < Q25 Mean (Obs.) T-statistic of the mean Test TRAD > Q75 Mean 0.04 0.68 0.03 38.80 16.09 (Obs.) 34 34 34 34 33 TRAD < Q25 Mean 0.03 0.32 0.03 43.55 21.29 (Obs.) 34 34 34 34 33 T-statistic of the mean Test 0.970 3.070*** 0 -0.850 -0.890 T statistics test for the null:"Risk/Insolvency is not higher for high level of product diversification". ***, ** and * indicate significance respectively at the 1%, 5% and 10% levels for a unilateral test. 0.05 39 0.03 39 3.270*** 0.57 39 0.21 39 3.560*** 0.04 39 0.03 39 2.540*** 36.15 39 55.92 39 -2.820*** 15.37 38 28.95 38 -2.350** BETA RSPEC Insolvency risk measures MDZ DD
Product diversification in the European banking industry: Risk and loan pricing
1. Bank risk and product diversification Trends in diversification and risk changes
To study the link between the shift towards non interest income and bank risk we conduct tests based on high frequency data (market data) As a first step we investigate if banks with a high annual growth rate in non traditional activities (NNII > 3% per year) exhibit a higher increase in risk than banks with a relatively low annual growth rate of NNII (NNII < 1% per year). Faster diversification As a second step we control for the relative position of each bank with respect to the average level of diversification in our sample by excluding banks with a diversification level lower than the sample mean reached in 2002. Faster AND Higher diversification A similar procedure is adopted for the two components of net non interest income (COM and TRAD).
Product diversification in the European banking industry: Risk and loan pricing
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Faster diversification and changes in risk for European listed banks (19962002)
Growth rate of risk Measures Growth rate of insolvency measures SDRET BETA RSPEC MDZ DD
COM > 3%
Mean (Obs.) COM < 1% Mean (Obs.) T-statistic of the mean Test TRAD > 3% Mean (Obs.) TRAD < 1% Mean (Obs.) T-statistic of the mean Test 13.77 72 11.68 11 2.690 *** 15.05 23 14.02 53 1.460 94.29 72 -47.45 11 3.590 *** -49.63 23 -15.73 53 -2.610 12.00 72 7.30 11 6.330 *** 13.01 23 11.62 53 2.00 ** 24.24 72 26.31 11 -2.950 -5.61 61 14.69 11 -4.650
***, ** and * indicate significance respectively at the 1%, 5% and 10% levels for a unilateral test.
Product diversification in the European banking industry: Risk and loan pricing
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Faster and higher diversification and changes in risk for European listed banks (1996-2002)
Growth rate of risk Measures SDRET BETA RSPEC Growth rate of insolvency measures a MDZ DD
COM > 3% and COM > COM average of the banking industry in 2002
Mean 21.90 251.38 18.21 23.59 (Obs.) 29 29 29 29 COM < 1% and COM < COM average of the banking industry in 2002 Mean (Obs.) T-statistic of the mean Test 9.89 10 9.320*** -35.62 10 2.820*** 5.16 10 10.66*** 26.31 10 -1.460 1.97 23 16.47 10 -1.630
TRAD > 3% and TRAD > TRAD average of the banking industry in 2002
Mean 12.47 -113.97 9.04 21.25 (Obs.) 14 14 14 14 TRAD < 1% and TRAD < TRAD average of the banking industry in 2002 Mean (Obs.) T-statistic of the mean Test 14.64 35 -53.15 35 12.26 35 25.96 35 -9.91 14 9.29 29
-2.010 -2.580 -3.120 -4.300 -5.270 T-statistics test for the null: "Risk/Insolvency growth is not higher for banks which have actively diversified their activities on the whole period and have reached a relatively high level of diversification in 2002". ***, ** and * indicate significance respectively at the 1%, 5% and 10% levels for a unilateral test.
Product diversification in the European banking industry: Risk and loan pricing
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PRODUCT MIX and LOAN PRICING Consistent with some US studies banks with higher non-interest income share of total income exhibit higher risk but this result is driven by commission and fee based activities. Higher reliance on trading activities is not associated with higher risk. Robustness checks (regressions controlling for various factors) The European banking industry might have experienced different changes and because commission and fee activities are linked to lending activities (cross selling of products to a core customer) we further look at the relationship with
MODEL SPECIFICATION
Dependent variable 1) The risk premium on loans is first proxied by a : - broad definition of the spread: W_SPREAD = the ratio of net interest income to total earning assets - the 10 year government bond rate, - narrow definition of the spread: N_SPREAD = the lending rate determined as the ratio of interest from loans to net loans - the 10 year government bond rate. 2) For consistency with previous studies, we also consider two measures of the net interest margin : - a broad definition of the margin: W_MARGIN = ratio of net interest income to total earning assets, - a narrow definition of the margin: N_MARGIN = the ratio of interest income from loans to net loans - the ratio of interest expenses to total liabilities
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MARGINit = 1i + 2 R3M j(i)t +3 LLPit +4 LIQUIDITYit + 5 EQUITYit + 6 TA _ R it + 7 EXPENSESit 8 NNIIit LLPit /100 9 COMSHAit LLPit /100+ it
MARGINit = 1i + 2 R3M j(i)t +3 LLPit +4 LIQUIDITYit + 5 EQUITYit + 6 TA _ R it + 7 EXPENSESit 10 COMit LLPit /100 11 TRADit LLPit /100+ it
i and t are respectively indices for banks i and time t; MARGINit is defined either as : W_MARGIN = net interest income/total earning assets (equations 1 to 4); or N_MARGIN = interest income from loans/net loans interest expenses/total liabilities (equations 1 to 4); R3Mjt : the three months interbank rate for country j of bank i at time t; VR3Mjt : Volatility of the three months interbank rate (standard deviation computed with daily data) for country j; LLPit = loan loss provisions/net loans;
LIQUIDITYit = net loans/deposits; EQUITYit = equity/total assets; TA_Rit = total assets for bank i divided by the sum of the total assets of the banking system; EXPENSESit = personnel expenses/total assets; NNIIit = net non-interest income/total net operating income; COMit = net commission and fee income/ total net operating income; TRADit = net trading income/ total net operating income; COMSHAit = net commission and fee income/ net non-interest income.
Product diversification in the European banking industry: Risk and loan pricing
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SPREADit = 1i + 2 VR3M jt + 3 LLPit + 4 EQUITYit + 5 TA _ R it + 6 EXPENSESit it SPREADit = 1i + 2 VR3M jt + 3 LLPit + 4 EQUITYit + 5 TA _ R it + 6 EXPENSESit 7 NNIIit + it SPREADit = 1i + 2 VR3M jt + 3 LLPit + 4 EQUITYit + 5 TA _ R it + 6 EXPENSESit 7 NNIIit 8 COMSHAit + it SPREADit = 1i + 2 VR3M jt + 3 LLPit + 4 EQUITYit + 5 TA _ R it + 6 EXPENSESit 9 COMit 10 TRADit + it
SPREADit = 1i + 2 VR3M jt + 3 LLPit + 4 EQUITYit + 5 TA _ R it + 6 EXPENSESit 7 NNIIit LLP /100+ it
SPREADit = 1i + 2 VR3M jt + 3 LLPit + 4 EQUITYit + 5 TA _ R it + 6 EXPENSESit 7 NNIIit LLPit /100 8 COMSHAit LLPit /100+ it
SPREADit = 1i + 2 VR3M jt + 3 LLPit + 4 EQUITYit + 5 TA _ R it + 6 EXPENSESit 9 COMit 10 TRADit + it
i and t are respectively indices for banks i and time t; SPREADit is defined either as : W_SPREAD = net interest income/total earning assets - the 10 year government bond rate (equations 5 to 8); or N_SPREAD = interest from loans/net loans - the 10 year government bond rate (equations 5 to 8); R3Mjt : the three months interbank rate for country j of bank i at time t; VR3Mjt : Volatility of the three months interbank rate (standard deviation computed with daily data) for country j; LLPit = loan loss provisions/net loans;
LIQUIDITYit = net loans/deposits; EQUITYit = equity/total assets; TA_Rit = total assets for bank i divided by the sum of the total assets of the banking system; EXPENSESit = personnel expenses/total assets; NNIIit = net non-interest income/total net operating income; COMit = net commission and fee income/ total net operating income; TRADit = net trading income/ total net operating income; COMSHAit = net commission and fee income/ net non-interest income.
Product diversification in the European banking industry: Risk and loan pricing
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2. Lending rate and non traditional activities (two-way fixed effect panel data estimations)
Equation R3M LLP LIQUIDITY (+) (+) (+) Dependant variable: W_MARGIN (2342 obs.) 0.115*** 0.071*** 0.000* (5.622) (3.850) (1.760) 0.100*** 0.047** -0.000 (3.955) (2.443) (-0.076) Dependant variable: N_MARGIN (2342 obs.) 0.140*** 0.149*** -0.001* (3.923) (5.067) (-1.680) 0.159*** 0.114*** -0.000*** (5.349) (3.390) (-4.861) VR3M (+) LLP (+) EQUITY (+) EQUITY (+) 0.035*** (4.715) 0.032*** (4.449) -0.070* (-1.769) -0.022 (-0.819) EXPENSES (+/-) EXPENSES (+/-) 0.404*** (6.433) 0.415*** (6.653) 0.204 (1.635) 0.135 (1.045) TA_R (+/-) TA_R (+/-) 0.137 (0.094) 0.304 (0.275) 1.672 (0.691) 1.707 (0.748) NNII (-) NNII (-) -0.019*** (-5.308) -0.010** (-1.967) COMSHA (-) COMSHA (-) COM (-) TRAD (-) R2
[1] [2]
0.920 0.929
[1] [2]
0.799 0.843
Equation
COM (-)
TRAD (-)
R2
Dependant variable: W_SPREAD (2342 obs.) 0.942 0.145*** 0.007 0.335* 9.924 0.776 (1.527) (3.065) (0.517) (1.740) (1.537) [6] 0.899 0.136*** -0.014** 0.629*** 9.608 -0.015*** 0.790 (1.516) (2.817) (-2.097) (4.698) (1.414) (-2.642) Dependant variable: N_SPREAD (2342 obs.) [5] 0.973* 0.231*** -0.006 0.224*** 4.417 0.815 (1.669) (4.697) (-0.296) (2.914) (1.429) [6] 0.954* 0.240*** -0.013 0.324*** 4.180 -0.014*** 0.818 (1.676) (5.201) (-0.589) (5.205) (1.351) (-3.012) ***, ** and * indicate significance respectively at the 1%, 5% and 10% levels. t-statistics are corrected for heteroskedasticity following Whites methodology. [5]
Product diversification in the European banking industry: Risk and loan pricing
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2. Lending rate and non traditional activities (two-way fixed effect panel data estimations)
Equation VR3M (+) LLP (+) EQUITY (+) EXPENSES (+/-) TA_R (+/-) 9.550 (1.424) 6.978 (1.322) 4.091 (1.318) 7.523*** (3.558) TA_R (+/-) NNII (-) -0.016*** (-2.659) COMSHA (-) -0.065* (-1.853) COM (-) -0.053*** (-2.838) -0.046** (-2.619) TRAD (-) -0.001 (-0.262) -0.006* (-1.943) R2 Dependant variable: W_SPREAD (2342 obs.) 0.891 0.138*** -0.015** 0.627*** (1.526) (2.852) (-2.068) (4.699) 0.733 0.124** 0.002 0.251 (1.528) (2.430) (0.116) (1.343) Dependant variable: N_SPREAD (2342 obs.) 0.949* 0.234*** -0.014 0.316*** (1.685) (5.093) (-0.620) (5.077) 0.717 0.141*** -0.006 0.197** (1.177) (3.195) (-0.293) (2.165) VR3M (+) LLP (+) EQUITY (+) EXPENSES (+/-)
[7] [8]
0.791 0.791
[7] [8]
-0.014*** (-2.784) -
-0.053** (-2.257) -
0.818 0.807
NNII*LLP/100 (-)
COMSHA*LLP/100 (-)
COM*LLP/100 (-)
TRAD*LLP/100 (-)
R2
Dependant variable: W_SPREAD (2342 obs.) [12] 0.840 0.437*** -0.025*** 0.831*** 9.203 -0.615*** (1.420) (3.805) (-3.158) (7.022) (1.631) (-3.408) [13] 0.833 0.479*** -0.025*** 0.829*** 9.172 -0.628*** -4.114* (1.416) (4.293) (-3.227) (6.977) (1.640) (-3.493) (-1.744) [14] 0.788 0.598*** -0.024*** 0.829*** 8.656 -1.218*** -0.007 (1.402) (6.628) (-3.125) (7.536) (1.592) (-8.289) (-0.149) Dependant variable: N_SPREAD (2342 obs.) [12] 0.850 0.664*** -0.006 0.333*** 8.582*** -1.097*** (1.247) (5.311) (-0.224) (3.289) (4.325) (-4.864) [13] 0.847 0.682*** -0.006 0.331*** 8.503*** -0.943*** -5.407 (1.243) (5.279) (-0.252) (3.285) (4.261) (-4.499) (-1.490) [14] 0.838 0.659*** -0.005 0.327*** 8.600*** -1.047*** -0.701 (1.208) (5.972) (-0.188) (3.261) (4.303) (-4.120) (-0.075) ***, ** and * indicate significance respectively at the 1%, 5% and 10% levels. t-statistics are corrected for heteroskedasticity following Whites methodology.
Product diversification in the European banking industry: Risk and loan pricing
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3. Conclusion (1)
Our study first shows that banks which have expanded into non-interest income activities present a higher level of risk than banks which principally supply traditional intermediation activities - but a closer investigation shows that this result is driven by feebased activities but not trading activities. - Similar findings are obtained for the link between risk changes and faster diversification within our sample period. Our tests for a possible cross-selling behaviour of interest and non-interest products show that higher reliance on fee-based activities is associated with - lower lending rates - and that borrower default risk might be underestimated raising the issue of how cross-selling strategies should be addressed by regulators to control for bank risk.
Product diversification in the European banking industry: Risk and loan pricing 20
3. Conclusion (2)
Our findings are based on the assumption that banks do not charge higher fees when lending to more risky borrowers and that on average higher income from commission and fee activities does not serve as a buffer against default risk along with traditional instruments such as loan loss provisions. A deeper investigation on this issue requires access to more detailed data on individual borrower default risk and lending conditions but also on individual prices for banking services.
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