Comparison of Economic Development in India, China and ASEAN.

By

Mohan Guruswamy Centre for Policy Alternatives New Delhi www.cpasind.com

India, China, ASEAN and the World

World Population (mn) GNP ($bn) Growth (%) % of Global Pop. % of Global GNP 6237 34,577 2.8 India 1055 601 8.6 China 1288 1417 9.3 ASEAN 542 686 4.64

---

17.0 1.73

21.0 4.09

9.0 1.98

Source: World Development Indicators 2005

India, China, ASEAN and White World

Developed World* Age Group % of Pop. (15-49) GNP ($bn) Per cap ($) 49.6 25,272 28,363 India 54.05 601 530 China ASEAN 60.97 686 1264

56.75
1417 1100

* USA, Europe & Russian Federation Source: World Development Indicators 2005 & US Census Bureau

Basic Indicators of China, India & ASEAN Countries

Country India China Population (mn) 1055 1288 GNP (bn $) 601 1417 Per Capita GNP ($) 530 1100

ASEAN
Brunei Cambodia

542
3.63 14.13

686
4.71 4.21

1264
13,545 293

Indonesia
Laos

213.5
5.61

209.0
2.04

947
340

Malaysia
Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

25.05
53.51 81.1 4.2 63.95 81.2

104.0
9.6 79.27 91.35 143.3 39.02

4,248
863 992 21,492 2,275 486.01

Source: ASEAN Finance & Macroeconomic Surveillance Unit & International Financial Statistics Yearbook 2004, IMF

Economic Indicators 2003

Indicator GDP ($ bn) GNP per capita ($) GNP in PPP
* Except Brunei & Myanmar Source: World Development Indicators 2005, Statistical Outline of India 2004 05, TATA Economic Services & ASEAN Finance & Macroeconomic Surveillance Unit

India 601 530 2880

China 1417 1100 4990

ASEAN 686 1264 2014*

GDP Structure Percent Share

Country India China ASEAN
Agriculture (1990) 31 27 22 Industry (1990) 28 42 32 Services (1990) 41 31 46 Agriculture (2003) 23 15 21 Industry (2003) 26 53 31 Services (2003) 52 32 48

Source: Statistical outline of India 2004-05, TATA Economic Services & CIA Country Fact sheet

Employment Break-up
Percent Share Agriculture Industry India 60.5 16.8 China 50 22 ASEAN 46.5 12

Services

22.7

28

41.5

Source: China Statistical Yearbook 2000, NSS 55th Round Employment & Un-employment Survey 1999-00 & ASEAN-Japan Centre Website

GDP Growth Rates

Period 1980s 1990s 2000 Onwards India 5.7 5.9 6.2 China 10.3 10 9.1 ASEAN 6.0 7.3 6.2

Source: World Development Indicators 2005 & US-ASEAN Business Council

Energy Indicators 2003

Indicators Electricity Production (bn Kwh) Electricity Consumption Per capita (Kwh) India 577 365 China 1472 893 ASEAN 560 712

Oil Production (mn bbl/day)

Oil Consumption (mn bbl/day)

0.78
2.13

3.4
4.95

2.6
3.75

Source: Statistical Outline of India, 2004-05, CIA Factbook & ASEAN Energy Centre

Demographic Indicators 2003

Indicators Birth Rate (per 1000) Death Rate (per 1000) IMR (per 1000) Life expectancy (Years) India 25 8 65 65 China 15 8 30 71 ASEAN 20 7 38 67

Surface Area (000 sq. km.)

Population Density (per sq km)

3278
347

9598
136

3635
121

Source: ASEAN Statistical Yearbook, 2004 & Statistical Outline of India, 2004-05, TATA Economic Services

Development Indicators 2002

Indicators Poverty ($1 a day) Gini Index Public exp. on health (% of GDP) Public exp. on education (% of GDP) India 35 37.8 5 4.1 China 17 40.3 6 2.9 ASEAN 11 35.04 11 17.4

Source: World Development Indicators 2005, Key Indicators of Developing Asian & Pacific Countries, ADB, 2004

Social Indicators
India Gross enrolment ratio in primary schools (%) Adult Literacy (%) 99 69 China 114 91 ASEAN 87 89

Labour cost per worker in Manufacturing ($ per year)

* Cambodia ** Indonesia

1192

729

152*1638**

Source: Key Statistical indicators, Asian Development Bank 2004

Prosperity Indicators -2002

Per 1000 pop. Tel. Landlines Cellular Lines PCs TV Sets India 40 12 7 83 China 167 161 28 350 ASEAN 45.5** 15.5* 25** 166*

* Data Pertains to 2003, **Data Pertains to 2000 Source: Statistical Outline of India 2004-05, TATA Economic Services & Asian Development Bank, 2001

External Sectors of China, India & ASEAN

Country ASEAN China Exports 466 438 Imports 383 413 Current Account Balance 57.2* 68.7 Foreign reserves 236 711**

India

55

70

-6.4

127

*Data of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore & Philippines ** not including Hong Kong ($122 bn.) Source: ASEAN Finance & Macroeconomic surveillance Unit, Statistical Outline of India 2004 -05 & The Economist August 27, 2005

FDI Inflows (USD bn.)

Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 India 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 2.1 2.4 3.6 2.6 2.2 2.3 3.4 3.4 4.3 China 3.8 4.4 11.2 27.5 33.8 35.8 40.2 44.2 43.8 38.8 38.4 46.9 52.7 53.5 ASEAN 10.2 12.8 10.5 12.1 13.3 17.9 18.2 18.3 23.1 28.7 23.4 19.6 14.5 19.1

Source: World Bank 2002 & Stat. Outline of India, 2004-05, TATA Eco. Services

Intra-flow of FDI between India, China & ASEAN

Country Total FDI ($bn) 4.3 53.5 19.1

India > China ($mn) 28.8 China > India 7.39

India > ASEAN China > ASEAN ($mn) ($mn) 61.08 495

India China ASEAN

ASEAN > India ASEAN > China 85 5885

*Data Pertains to 2002-03 Source: Ministry of Commerce, GoI & ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta

External Trade Value ($mn)

Description Global Trade Global Export Global Import India 115 53 61 China 851 438 412 ASEAN 847 456 391

Source: Direction of Trade Statistics Year Book 2004, IMF

Indias Trade with China & ASEAN ($mn)

Description China ASEAN Total Trade 13,604 9769* Export 5927 4619 Import 7678 5150

*Data Pertains to 2003 Source: Indo-china & Indo-ASEAN trade links, www.economywatch.com

Chinas Trade with ASEAN ($mn)

Total Trade Export Import 78,255 30,928 47,327

Source: Direction of Trade Statistics Year Book 2004, IMF

Profile of Indias Trade with China ($mn)

Trade Items Imports to India Exports to China

Primary Products
Manufactured Goods

452
2,862

1,799
2,453

Pharma Products
Office Machineries Telecom & Sound Recording Scientific Apparatus Photographic, Optical, Watches Total

253
118 430 34 55 3,343

71
2 2 2 4 4,252

Source: India-China Trade, Win-win situation or zero sum game, Ranade Sudhanshu, 16th April 2005, Business line

Profile of Indias Trade with ASEAN ($ mn)

Products Cereals Food Residues & Animal Fodder Mineral Fuel & Oils Exports from India 161.06 331.00 1,185.22 Products Animal & Vegetable Fats Mineral Fuels & Oils Organic Chemicals Imports from ASEAN 1903.91 226.46 441.99

Organic Chemicals
Cotton Manmade Filaments Precious Stones

348.49
123.17 136.00 415.74

Wood Articles
Books & Scripts Machinery & Appliances Electrical Machinery

505.07
134.55 1,127.80 779.86

Iron & Steel

Machinery & Appliances Electrical Machinery Total Trade

390.44
298.52 182.69 5,821.74

Aircraft Parts
Ships, Boats Ores, Slag & Ash Total Trade

119.55
279.68 124.30 7,433.16

Source: Ministry of Commerce, GoI, 2003-04

Profile of Chinas Trade with ASEAN ($ mn)

Products Electrical Equipment Computer/Machinery Cereal Lubricants/Fuels/Oil Ships/Boats Total Imports from China 3240 2440 520 430 300 6900 Products Computer/Machinery Electrical Equipment Lubricants/Fuels/Oil Fats & Oil Wood Total Exports to China 1940 1710 1009 520 510 5770

Source: ASEAN Secretariat, www.aseansec.org

What the stars foretell?

India and China will grow faster than ASEAN India-China economic engagement will grow much more than India_ASEAN ASEAN is more linked with China than India and will continue to be so Indian FDI mostly from developed country MNCs using it as a manufacturing hub. Eg. Ford, Suzuki, Honda India cannot compete for developed country markets for manufactured goods till SEZs take-off India and China will seek new trade links.