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A situation where a firms operating cash flows are not sufficient to satisfy current obligations and the firm is forced to take corrective action. Financial distress may lead a firm to default on a contract, and it may involve financial restructuring between the firm, its creditors, and its equity investors. Penyebab Kegagalan Perusahaan: Faktor ekonomi = 55,1 % Faktor keuangan = 36,0 % Bencana, terabaikan, penyelewengan = 7,1 % Faktor lain-lain = 1,8 %
Stock-base insolvency; the value of the firms assets is less than the value of the debt. Solvent firm
Debt Assets Equity Assets
Insolvency
Insolvent firm
Debt Equity Debt
Insolvency
Flow-base insolvency occurs when the firms cash flows are insufficient to cover contractually required payments.
$
Cash flow shortfall
6,200
6,127 5,300
1990
1989 1992
Financial distress
51% 47%
Private workout
Financial restructuring
53% 83%
7%
10%
Source: Karen H. Wruck, Financial Distress: Reorganization and Organizational Efficiency, Journal of Financial Economics 27 (1990), Figure 2. See also Stuart C. Gilson; Kose John, and Larry N.P. Lang, Troubled Debt and Violation of Priority Claims, Journal of Financial Economics 27 (1990).
Liquidation
Unsecured creditors
Secured creditors
Disadvantages of Bankruptcy
1. A long and expensive process. 2. Judges are required to approve major business decisions. 3. Distraction (menyebalkan) to management. 4. Hold out (bertahan) by stockholders.
Corporate bankruptcy involves liquidation and reorganization. An essential feature of the U.S. Bankruptcy code is the absolute priority rule (APR).
A hybrid of a private workout and formal bankruptcy is prepackaged bankruptcy.
Altmans Model
Model ini menerapkan multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) untuk memprediksi kemungkinan terjadinya bangkrut pd perusahaan. Model ini diformulasikan sebagai berikut: Z = 0,012X1 + 0,014X2 + 0,033 X3 + 0,006X4 + 0,999X5 di mana X1 = NWC/TA X2 = Retained Earning/total assets X3 = EBIT/TA X4 = MV of CS and PS/BV of Debts X5 = Sales/TA Jika Z < 1,81 probability of bankruptcy besar 1,81 < Z < 2,99 ignorance area Z > 2,99 kemungkinan terjadinya bangkrut kecil Z = 2,675, kemungkinan bangkrut 50:50
Altmans Model
Contoh: X1 = 690/2000 = 0,345 = 34,5%; 34,5 x 0,012 = 0,414 X2 = 766/2000 = 0,383 = 38,3%; 38,3 x 0,014 = 0,536 X3 = 284/2000 = 0,142 = 14,2%; 14,2 x 0,033 = 0,469 X4 = 50(23)/1064 = 1,081=108%; 108,1x0,006 = 0,649 X5 = 3000/2000= 1,5 1,5 x0,999 = 1,499 Nilai Z score = 3,567 Karena Z score = 3,567 adalah di atas 2,99, maka angka ini menunjukkan kemungkinan perusahaan ini bangkrut untuk masa datang tidak beralasan.
Cash A/R Inventories Total CA Gross FA Less: Dep. Net FA Total Assets
Other data
No. of shares EPS DPS Stock price
PT A 250,000 $1.014 $0.220 $12.17 PT B 100,000 -$1.602 $0.110 $2.25