Forecasting Marcellus

Productivity in
New York

1
Jerry Acton

Marcellus Shale
Play

Pennsylvania Production
New York Projections

NY

PA

Systems Engineering Approach

PA DEP Oil & Gas Reporting Website

Download: Well Data

Select: Northern Tier PA

4 Years 2009-2012
6 Counties

Select: Producing Horizontal Wells

1,539

Determine: Initial Production (IP)

81 Towns

Compute: Median IPs, County & Town

Maps & Graphs

All Data
Publicly Available

Correlate: Thickness & Depth

Project: NY
4

PA Gas Well Production Levels

6 Counties, 81 Towns, 1539 Wells

Percent of Wells

Median
3.9

35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

30%
30.1%

31%
30.7%

20%
20.1%

0-2

19%
19.1%

2.1-4

4.1-7

Initial Production (mmcf/d)

7.1+
5

Towns & Producing Gas Wells

Median IPs

1.9
4

22

37

18

430

6.5

4.4

2.7

1.6

32

635

15

6.8
5

# Towns

# Producing Wells

#.#

363
52

County-wide
Median IP (mmcf/d)

Median Town IPs (mmcf/d)

Wyoming Median IPs

County & Towns
52 Wells
24 46%
12.0
17 33%
10.0
7 13%
11 6%
8.0
6.8 5 2%
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1

Num ber of Tow ns

Median Town IPs (mmcf/d)

Susquehanna Median IPs

County & Towns
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0

Brooklyn Township
Highest Overall
Town IP = 12

363 Wells

6.5

171
83
61
34
14

47%
23%
17%
9%
4%

Springville
Township
Highest Single Well
IP = 31 mmcf/d

4.0
2.0
0.0
1

11

Num ber of Tow ns

13

15

Median Town IPs (mmcf/d)

Bradford Median IPs

County & Towns
635 Wells

12.0

102
255
210
44
24

10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0

16%
40%
33%
7%
4%

4.4

2.0
0.0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
Num ber of Tow ns

Median Town IPs (mmcf/d)

Tioga Median IPs

County & Towns
430 Wells

12.0

9
105
170
102
44

10.0
8.0
6.0

2%
24%
40%
24%
10%

4.0
2.0

2.7

0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Number of Tow ns

Median Town IPs (mmcf/d)

McKean Median IPs

County & Towns
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0

22 Wells
0 0%
1 4%
5 23%
11 50%
5 23%

4.0
2.0 1.9
0.0
1

Num ber of Tow ns

Median Town IPs (mmcf/d)

Potter Median IPs

County & Towns
37 Wells
0 0%
0 0%
9 24%
17 46%
11 30%

12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0 1.6
0.0
1

Num ber Tow ns

Marcellus Shale Thickness & Depth

New York
Marcellus

6 Northern Tier
PA
Counties

Maps Source: Marcellus Center for Operations

& Research (MCOR) at Penn State University
13

Thickness, Depth, IPs

County

Potter

Potter

Bradford

Bradford

Pleasant

Wharton

Orwell

Leroy

Thickness

140

100

225

275

Depth

5300

6500

5500

5500

Town IP

1.1

2.4

1.8

4.7

Average IP

1.1

2.0

2.2

4.5

# Wells

Well IP

0.1

0.5

0.1

0.4

0.9

1.9

1.6

3.2

1.1

2.8

1.8

4.6

1.1

2.8

2.5

4.7

5.2

4.7

Town

1.6
1.8

4.9
9.0
14

Well IPs by Shale Depth

Map Source: MCOR

Susquehanna

McKean

Tioga
Potter

Bradford
Wyoming

Town IP
(mmcf/d)
7.1 - 31
4.1 - 7.0
2.1 - 4.0
1.1 - 2.0
0.0 15
- 1.0

15

Well IPs vs Shale Depth

IP - mmcf/d

0-1

1.1 - 2 2.1 4.0

4.1 - 7

7.1- 31

1,539 Wells

Percent of Wells

120%

20%

80%
60%

17%

12%
29%

40%
35%

59%

38%

27%

38%
21%

45%
30%

0%

2-3

38%
41%

30%

40%
20%

2%

1%

100%

3-4
Projected

22%

20%

9%

4-5

5-6

12%

6-7

8%

6%

7-8

Shale Depth (1000 ft)

16

Well IPs by Shale Thickness

Susquehanna
McKean

Tioga
Potter

Map Source: MCOR

Bradford
Wyoming

Town IP
(mmcf/d)
7.1 - 31
4.1 - 7.0
2.1 - 4.0
1.1 - 2.0
0.0 - 1.0

17

Well IPs vs Thickness

IP - mmcf/d

0-1

1.1 - 2 2.1 4.0

4.1 - 7

7.1- 31

Number of Wells

120%
22%

20%

80%
60%
40%

2%

2%

100%

28%

1,539 Wells

4%
36%

49%

41%

31%

12%

12%

38%
44%

78%

20%

40%

20%
6%

0%
50-100

100-150

150-200

4%

200-250

8%

250-300

Shale Thickness (ft)

18

Well IPs by Thickness & Depth

3000
Shale
Depth (ft)

4000

18

0.7
5000

0.6

3.0

2.5
50

248

1.3

6000

40

45

3.2
18

2.4

3.6

140

2.5

3.3

166

3.9

200

322

Zone Median IP
100

150

200

Number
of Wells
In Zone

5.0

7000

8000
50

71

146

6.8

7.8
250

66

300
Shale Thickness (ft)

19

Numerical Modeling of IP
1
Vo
lu
m
e

Initial Production

V T^2

0
Thickness

1
Pr
es P D
s
ur
0
Depth

T = 75 ft
D = 2,500 ft

0.6

2%

T = 125 ft
D = 4,500 ft

3.2

10%

T = 175 ft
D = 4,500 ft

6.3

20%

T = 225 ft
D = 5,500 ft

13

41%

T = 275 ft
D = 6,500 ft

23

73%

Tm = 300 ft
Dm = 7,500 ft

31

100%

Model

%
20

Numerical Modeling of IP
1
Vo
lu
m
e

Initial Production

V T^2

0
Thickness

1
Pr
es P D
s
ur
0
Depth

T = 75 ft
D = 2,500 ft

0.6

0.2

T = 125 ft
D = 4,500 ft

3.2

1.9

T = 175 ft
D = 4,500 ft

6.3

4.8

T = 225 ft
D = 5,500 ft

13

T = 275 ft
D = 6,500 ft

23

15

Tm = 300 ft
Dm = 7,500 ft

31

31

Model Actual
21

NY Median IP Projections
2000

0.3

0.5

1.8

2.0
Fairway
Perimeter

3000
Shale
Depth (ft)

0.4

0.6

2.1

2.5

0.5

0.7

2.5

3.0

0.6

1.3

3.2

3.6

2.4

2.5

3.3

3.9

5.0

4000

NY

5000

6000

7000

8000
50

100

150

6.8

7.8

Zone Median IP
200

250

300

Shale
Thickness (ft)

22

NY Median IP Projections

5000

6000

PA

NY
Median IP
(mmcf/d)

Map Source:
MCOR

PA Town Level IPs

NY County, Town Level IP Projections

7.1 - 31
4.1 - 7.0
2.1 - 4.0
1.1 - 2.0
0.0 - 1.0

23

New York Projections

Southern tier

OUTSIDE FAIRWAY PERIMETER:

Exploratory Drilling
INSIDE FAIRWAY PERIMETER:
Still a Gamble

Median IP
(mmcf/d)
2.1 - 3.6
0.0 - 1.0

24

Existing Marcellus Well Permits

Wetterling Test Well

Owego, NY
Plugged and Abandoned