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and peace-building in the Taiwan Strait

UNDERSTANDING THE EAST ASIAN Informal and formal conflict prevention PEACE

EAST ASIA

THE TAIWAN SITUATION RELATIVE PEACE

Stable peace War

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Is

Issue: Taiwans legal and international status

Taiwan a sovereign state of de jure independence? Or is it a part of China to be reunified with the Mainland?
China: Only one China, and Taiwan is part of that China (ONE CHINA PRINCIPLE) Taiwan: Independent nation separate from China
Ongoing; However,

SITUATION

a rather intense conflict stalemated at a crisis level

cooperation and integration has proliferated with a common goal towards stable peace aspects of cross-strait relations have been peaceful (especially the economic connection), whereas the diplomatic situation is still in crisis mode

Some

SITUATION
Historical context of the China-Taiwan relations

Mainland

Chinese have conducted commercial activities in Taiwan since 500AD Dynasty (1271-1368): First Chinese government was established in Taiwan Dynasty (1683): Annexed Taiwan to China, made a province Taiwan remained under Chinese rule

Yuan

Qing

Thereafter,

SITUATION
Roots of the Current Conflict
Dr. Sun Yat-sen of the Kuomintang party founded the Republic of China (ROC: espoused democracy)

1912:

Three

decades of warlordism and fragmentation followed, ending in a civil war between the ruling KMT and the Chinese Communist Party Mao Zedong officially proclaimed the Peoples Republic of China (PRC: communist)
Kai-shek and the KMT forces then withdrew from the mainland to Taiwan and declared it as the provisional headquarters of the ROC government

1949:

Chiang

SITUATION
The United Nations expelled the ROC and recognized the PRC as Chinas legitimate representative

Roots of the Current Conflict The cross-strait conflict has ever since been stalemated at a high level of conflict intensity
1970:

1979:

The US shifted its recognition to the ROC, under the premise that PRC was to resolve the Taiwan issue by peaceful means
Honeymoon periodrelations reached new positive heights
One Country, Two System policy for peaceful reunification Economic relations grew stronger

1980:

SITUATION
The current status

The

1992 consensus: One China principlethere is only one undivided China to which both the Mainland and Taiwan belong
Lee Teng-Hui government broke off from the consensus: Taiwan not a part of China, but a state of its own.

The

Initiated the bidding for UN membership, visits to several neighboring countries, and discouraged Taiwanese economic relations with the Mainland

The

Chen Shui-bian government: Taiwan is an independent country, not a part of the PRC

SITUATION
The current status

Chen

was reelected, and relations between the two sides further deteriorated passed the anti-secession law which created a legalistic framework for taking actions against Taiwan seeking de jure independence US became the intermediary between the two sides

Mainland

The

Political

relations are increasingly strained, but there is an increased engagement in the economic sphere is content with the status quo and the idea of a reunification in the future.

PRC

REASONS BEHIND THE

RELATIVE PEACE
1. 2.

Elite interaction Economic integration and interdependence

3.
4.

Functional cooperation
The United States factor

ELITE INTERACTION
Personal
Track

networks

two diplomacy

Track

two meetings and workshops Academic exchanges and dialogues

CCP-KMT Unofficial

inter-party connections

military exchange and contacts negotiations and secret envoys

Back-channel

Developing

a thick web of linkages among the elite in the political and military sphere of both sides is viewed as an irreplaceable resource and social capital for the development of positive relations

ELITE INTERACTION
and confidence building process

Catalyst Trust

Promote Trust

mutual win, smoothen relations and defuse issues and tensions with conflict escalation potential is gained, understanding of the other side facilitated, and communication made more effective (result of regular interaction and open channels of communication) to listen and find common grounds

Willingness Avoidance

of misunderstandings and miscalculations

Increased

ability for cooperation, as the two sides are geographical neighbors deeply interlinked through economic relations and a shared history and a Chinese heritage positive relations

ELITE INTERACTION
borders

Institutionalized Important

part of longer term peace-building

Transcends United

in the common goal of building a durable peace community including people that share certain norms, values, and goals, who are committed to a peaceful and prosperous future zone as been formed

A buffer

ELITE INTERACTION
Illustration:
Seminars,
Common The

receiving researchers, inter-party relations

US education: common language and framework for understanding, schooled in the same international relations discourse, same terminology and concepts, common language and educational experience Cross Strait Cultural, Education, and Economic Exchange Association is composed of members from both sides with good connections and influence

Able to discuss softer issues such as humanitarian relief, repatriation, etc.

Military

fraternity

ECONOMIC INTEGRATION
AND
received 25% of Taiwans total exports
of Taiwans imports came from the Mainland

Mainland
8%

INTERDEPENDENCE

Import

and export dependency had increased to 28% Taiwanese investments

Increased

Substantial

economic interdependence became a driving force for cross-strait cooperation and integration zeal, political chilleconomic links grow stronger while political differences show no sign of reconciliation

Economic

ECONOMIC INTEGRATION
AND
Development

INTERDEPENDENCE of a market economy is seen as an

important catalyst for the opening up and democratization process on the Mainland
With

a free market, identities and interests will transform on the Mainland

to shared values, norms, and understandinga shared identity and shared interests instrument to build long-term peace

Lead

Good

ECONOMIC INTEGRATION
Illustration:
Presence

AND

opening of schools with Taiwanese teachers, medical facilities with Taiwanese doctors, etc. Direct charter flights, special direct cargo flights, and other examples of innovative measures that cater to the needs caused by the economic integration Close contacts of businesspersons with senior policymakers affect the private, academic, and policy sectors (direct conflict preventive impact)

Taiwanese businesspeople has led to Iof NTERDEPENDENCE

FUNCTIONAL COOPERATION
Institutionalized

integration and interaction across

the Strait
Manages

functional and technical issues of the two sides (day-to-day interaction, people-to-people exchange) and confidence building mechanism

Trust

Trade,
De

cultural, and economic areas

facto government-to-government channel

FUNCTIONAL COOPERATION
Illustration:
Assisting

mainland Chinese regarding travel documents

conflicts, disputes over fishing rights, repatriation of fishermen migration

Trade

Illegal

Important

Prevented

THE U.S. FACTOR

war

role for crisis management and short term conflict prevention the level of hostility from escalating into

Stabilizing

force, created a framework for acceptable behavior for both sides

of communication and de facto intermediate between Beijing and Taipei the Taiwanese feeling of security (Taiwan

Channel

Enhanced

ally)

THE U.S. FACTOR

It The The No

is in the US interest that the two sides resolve the Taiwan question peacefully (any military action is a grave threat to Western peace) US recognition of the PRC was made on the premise that Beijing would use a peaceful approach to resolve the Taiwan issue US also maintained cultural, commercial, and other unofficial relations with Taiwan

intention of infringing on Chinese sovereignty and territorial integrity, or interfering in Chinas internal affairs, or pursuing a policy of two Chinas or one China, one Taiwan
ambiguity more support for Taiwan

Strategic

THE U.S. FACTOR

Illustration:
Taiwan
Pressuring

Relations Act passed by the U.S. Congress (1982)

Taiwan to tone down its independence rhetoric and actions, to avoid antagonizing the Mainland