HYPOTHESIS TESTING

Dr. Jamil Ahmad

HYPOTHESIS

In many cases the purpose of research is to answer a question or test a prediction, generally stated in the form of hypotheses -- testable propositions.
Examples:
Question Does a training program in driver safety result in a decline in accident rate? Who is better in math, men or women? What is the relationship between age and cell phone use? Is there a relationship between education and income? Can public education reduce the occurrence of AIDS? Hypothesis People who take a driver safety course will have a lower accident rate than those who do not take the course. Men are better in math than women. Cell phone use is higher for younger adults than for older adults. Income increases with years of education. The number of AIDS cases is inversely related to the amount of public education about the disease.

What is a Hypothesis?
A hypothesis is an educated guess about how things work. Most of the time a hypothesis is written like this:

"If ____[I do this] _____, then _____[this]_____ will happen." (Fill in the blanks with the appropriate information from your own experiment.)
What is a Hypothesis? A hypothesis is a statement about the relationship between two or more variables. A hypothesis requires at least two variables, one independent variable and one dependent variable. Your hypothesis should be something that you can actually test, what's called a testable hypothesis. In other words, you need to be able to measure both "what you do" and "what will happen."

What is a Hypothesis? A hypothesis is an explanation for a phenomenon which can be tested in some way which ideally either proves or disproves the hypothesis. A statement about some population parameter that is to be tested for its correctness. A tentative explanation for an observation, phenomenon, or scientific problem that can be tested by further investigation.

Hypothesis is a formal statement that presents the expected relationship between an independent and dependent variable.(Creswell, 1994) A research question is essentially a hypothesis asked in the form of a question.

Nature of Hypothesis
It can be tested Hypotheses are not moral or ethical questions It is a prediction of consequences It is considered valuable even if proven false

Types of Hypotheses

NULL HYPOTHESES Designated by: Ho Pronounced as H oh or H-null (hipotesis nol, hipotesis kosong, hipotesis tidak beza) Ho: 1 = 2 Ho: 1 - 2 = 0

ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES Designated by: H1 or Ha Ha: 1 2

ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS The alternative hypothesis is a statement of what a hypothesis test is set up to establish. Opposite of Null Hypothesis. Only reached if Ho is rejected. Frequently alternative is actual desired conclusion of the researcher!

The first step of hypothesis testing is to convert the research question into null and alterative hypotheses.
We start with the null hypothesis (Ho). The null hypothesis is a claim of no difference. The opposing hypothesis is the alternative hypothesis (Ha). The alternative hypothesis is a claim of a difference in the population, and is the hypothesis the researcher often hopes to bolster. It is important to keep in mind that the null and alternative hypotheses reference population values, and not observed statistics.

Contoh: Dalam satu kajian bagi mengenal pasti keberkesanan kaedah pengajaran berbantukan komputer berbanding dengan kaedah tradisional dalam meningkatkan pencapaian pelajar dalam mata pelajaran sains. Soalan kajian: Adakah terdapat perbezaan pencapaian pelajar dalam mata pelajaran sains antara kumpulan yang diajar dengan kaedah pengajaran berbantukan komputer berbanding dengan kaedah tradisional? Hipotesis nol: Ho: Tidak terdapat perbezaan yang signifikan skor min pencapaian pelajar dalam mata pelajaran sains antara kumpulan pelajar yang diajar dengan kaedah berbantukan komputer berbanding dengan kumpulan tradisional. Ho: 1 = 2

Hipotesis alternatif: Ha: Terdapat perbezaan yang signifikan skor min pencapaian pelajar dalam mata pelajaran sains antara kumpulan pelajar yang diajar dengan kaedah berbantukan komputer berbanding dengan kumpulan tradisional. Ha: 1 2 (two-Tailed/sided)

Hipotesis alternatif juga boleh ditulis seperti berikut:

Ha: Pencapaian pelajar dalam mata pelajaran sains bagi kumpulan yang diajar dengan kaedah berbantukan komputer lebih baik berbanding dengan kumpulan yang diajar dengan kaedah tradisional.
Ha: > 0 (one-Tailed/sided to right)

CONTOH SOALAN KAJIAN 1. Adakah terdapat perbezaan tahap budaya penyelidikan antara guru sekolah bandar dengan guru sekolah luar bandar? Hipotesis nol: Ho. Tidak terdapat perbezaan yang signifikan tahap budaya penyelidikan antara guru sekolah bandar dengan guru sekolah luar bandar.

Hipotesis alternative: Ha: . Terdapat perbezaan yang signifikan tahap budaya penyelidikan antara guru sekolah bandar dengan guru sekolah luar bandar.

LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE (p value)

The p value is the probability that the samples are from the same population with regard to the dependent variable (outcome). Usually, the hypothesis we are testing is that the samples (groups) differ on the outcome.

The p value is directly related to the null hypothesis.

The p value determines whether or not we reject the null hypothesis. We use it to estimate whether or not we think the null hypothesis is true.

LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE (p value)

The p value provides an estimate of how often we would get the obtained result by chance, if in fact the null hypothesis were true. If the p value is small, reject the null hypothesis and accept that the samples are truly different with regard to the outcome. If the p value is large, accept the null hypothesis and conclude that the treatment or the predictor variable had no effect on the outcome.

?????????? How small is "small? What p value should we use as a cutoff?

 In the behavioral and social and sciences, a general pattern is to use either .05 or .01 as the cutoff.
The one chosen is called the level of significance. If the probability associated with an inferential statistic is equal to or less than .05, (p .05) then the result is said to be significant at the .05 level. If the .01 cutoff is used, then the result is significant at the .01 level.

 Using the .05 level of significance means if the null hypothesis is true, we would get our result 5 times out of 100 (or 1 out of 20). We take the risk that our study is not one of those 5 out of 100.
Rejecting or accepting the null hypothesis is a gamble. There is always a possibility that we are making a mistake in rejecting the null hypothesis. This is called a Type I Error - rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true. If we use a .01 cutoff, the chance of a Type I Error is 1 out of 100.

With a .05 level of significance, we are taking a bigger gamble. There is a 1/20 (5 out of 100) chance that we are wrong, and that our treatment (or predictor variable) doesn't really matter.

Why would we take the bigger gamble of .05 rather than .01 cutoff? Because we don't want to miss discovering a true difference. There is a tradeoff between overestimating and underestimating chance effects.

You will often see the probability value described as p < .05, meaning that the probability associated with the inferential statistic is .05 or less (5 out of 100).

Notation used with p values: < = less than > = greater than < = less than or equal to > = greater than or equal to

When you use a computer program to calculate an inferential statistic (such as a t-test, Chi-square, correlation), the results will show an exact p value (e.g., p = .013). If you use the formulas for hand calculation, you will need to use a table of critical values in order to get p.

The Decision Criterion

The Decision Criterion

Alpha Level

The Decision Criterion

Critical Region

A very small number on either side

2.5% on either side

.5% on either side

The locations of the critical region boundaries for three different levels of significance: = .05, = .01, and = .001.

Types of error

Type of decision Reject H0

H0 true Type I error ()

H0 false Correct decision (1-b)

Accept H0

Correct decision (1-)

Type II error (b)

If you reject Ho when it is false, youve made a correct decision (upperright cell) However, if you reject Ho when it is true, youve made a Type I error (upper left cell) This error has a particular name, alpha. On the other hand, if Ho is false and you do not reject Ho, you commit a Type II error . The probability of committing a Type II error is called beta.
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SUMMARY
CONCEPT Null Hypothesis Alternative Hypothesis or Research Hypothesis Two-Tailed or Nondirectional Test DESCRIPTION The hypothesis stating that the independent variables has no effect and that there will be no difference between two groups The hypothesis stating that the independent variables has an effect and that there will be a difference between two groups

An alternative hypothesis stating that a difference is expected between the two groups, but there is no prediction as to which group will perform better or worse

One-Tailed or Directional Test

Type I Error Type II Error Statistical Significance
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An alternative hypothesis stating that a difference is expected between the two groups, and it is expected to occur in a spesific direction.
The error of failing to reject Ho when we should have reject it The error of rejected Ho when we should have failed to reject it When the probability of a type I error is low (less than .05)

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Steps in Test of Hypothesis

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Determine the appropriate test Establish the level of significance: Determine whether to use a one tail or two tail test Calculate the test statistic Determine the degree of freedom Compare computed test statistic against a tabled value

TERIMA KASIH

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