Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Making
Perception
Perception
A process by which individuals organize and
interpret their sensory impressions in order to give
meaning to their environment
Perceptual processes differ across individuals
Perception is basis of meaning
Behaviors are based on perceptions, not on
reality
Perception
Mental models
Social Identity Theory
Personal identity
Social identity
Social perceptions
Categorization
Homogenization
Differentiation
Stereotyping
Errors in Perception
Primacy effect
Recency effect
Projection
Halo effect
Contrast effect
Attribution Theory
How do people determine the source or cause of
others’ behaviors?
Internal attribution
External attribution
Outcomes
The Classical Model of
Decision Making
1. Identify and define the Problem
4. Develop alternatives
5. Analyze alternatives
Preferences
No time or cost
are constant
constraints exist
and stable
Processing
Rational: People can process all information
Information
OB: People process only limited information
Evaluation
Rational: Choices evaluated simultaneously
Timing
OB: Choices evaluated sequentially
Decision
Rational: Maximization -- the optimal choice
Objective
OB: Satisficing -- a “good enough” choice
Anchoring Bias
Using early, first received information as the
basis for making subsequent judgments
Confirmation Bias
Using only the facts that support our decision
Common Biases and Errors
Availability Bias
Using information that is most readily at hand
Recent
Vivid
Representative Bias
“Mixing apples with oranges”
Assessing the likelihood of an occurrence by
trying to match it with a preexisting category using
only the facts that support our decision
Common Biases and Errors
Escalation of Commitment
In spite of new negative information, commitment
actually increases
Randomness Error
Creating meaning out of random events
Hindsight Bias
Looking back, once the outcome has occurred,
and believing that you accurately predicted the
outcome of an event
Intuition
Intuitive Decision Making
An unconscious process created out of distilled
experience
Conditions Favoring Intuitive Decision
Making
A high level of uncertainty exists
There is little precedent to draw on
Variables are less scientifically predictable
“Facts” are limited
Facts don’t clearly point the way
Analytical data are of little use
Several plausible alternative solutions exist
Time is limited and pressing for the right decision
Ways to Improve Decision
Making
1. Analyze the situation and adjust your decision
making style to fit the situation.
2. Be aware of biases and try to limit their impact.
3. Combine rational analysis with intuition to increase
decision-making effectiveness.
4. Don’t assume that your specific decision style is
appropriate to every situation.
5. Enhance personal creativity by looking for novel
solutions or seeing problems in new ways, and
using analogies.
Toward Reducing Bias and
Errors
Focus on goals.
Clear goals make decision making easier and
help to eliminate options inconsistent with your
interests.
Look for information that disconfirms
beliefs.
Overtly considering ways we could be wrong
challenges our tendencies to think we’re smarter
than we actually are.
Source: S.P. Robbins, Decide & Conquer: Making Winning Decisions and Taking Control
of Your Life (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Financial Times/Prentice Hall, 2004), pp. 164–68.
Toward Reducing Bias and
Errors
Don’t try to create meaning out of random
events.
Don’t attempt to create meaning out of
coincidence.
Increase your options.
The number and diversity of alternatives
generated increase the chance of finding an
outstanding one.
Source: S.P. Robbins, Decide & Conquer: Making Winning Decisions and Taking Control
of Your Life (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Financial Times/Prentice Hall, 2004), pp. 164–68.
Common Biases in Decision
Making
Heuristics are “rules of thumb”
The availability heuristic: use information that is
easily recalled
The representativeness heuristic: categorize and
stereotype based on limited information (e.g., you
can tell a book by its cover)
The anchoring and adjustment heuristic: place too
much weight on initial information
Source: Prentice-Hall 2003
Common Biases in Decision
Making
Escalation of Commitment
The tendency of decision makers to invest
additional time, money, or effort into what are
essentially bad decisions or unproductive courses
of action that are already draining organizational
resources.
Common Biases in Decision
Making
Escalation of commitment To help resolve and
occurs because of… prevent escalation of
Ego / Self-justification commitment…
Sunk costs fallacy Don’t look at other people
Gambler’s fallacy to set what you should do
Stopping costs Continually remind yourself
of the costs
Perceptual filters
Set limits on your
involvement and
commitment
Focus on the quality of the
decision, not the quantity of
the outcome
Stay vigilant
Employee Involvement Model
Potential Involvement
Outcomes
Better problem
Employee identification
Involvement More/better
solutions
generated
Contingencies Best choice more
of Involvement
likely
Higher
decision
commitment
1. Expected evaluation
2. Surveillance
3. External motivators
4. Competition
5. Constrained choice