MATA KULIAH

KEBANKSENTRALAN

KEBIJAKAN MONETER II: SASARAN TUNGGAL KESTABILAN HARGA BAURAN KEBIJAKAN (MAKRO PRUDENTIAL)
FAKULTAS EKONOMI IPB

Pusat Riset dan Edukasi Bank Sentral Bank Indonesia

Bogor, 3 Desember 2013

Why Inflation Targeting Framework?

Starting from July 2005, Bank Indonesia implements a new monetary policy framework consistent with the Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF).

In line with the central bank act no. 23/1999 and its amendment (act no.3/2004)
Enhance BIs credibility as inflation controller through commitment to hit inflation target. Research: more difficult to control monetary aggregate Comply with sound monetary policy principles. Empirical experience of other countries: ITF countries success to reduce inflation without increasing output volatility.

KERANGKA KERJA KEBIJAKAN MONETER

Sasaran uang beredar (quantity based approach) - BI sebelum Juli 2005 OPERASI MONETER: Sasaran operasional: Uang Primer (Mo)

SASARAN ANTARA:
Uang beredar: M1, M2

SASARAN AKHIR: Inflasi Pertumbuhan ekonomi

Instrumen: OPT

m M1/ M 0

M S M D (r , , Y )
Short-run Phillips Curve SASARAN AKHIR: Inflasi Pertumbuhan ekonomi

Sasaran suku bunga (price-based approach) - BI sejak Juli 2005 via ITF OPERASI MONETER: Sasaran operasional: suku bunga jangka pendek (rCB) Instrumen: OPT

INDIKATOR KEBIJAKAN Information Variable Suku bunga jk panjang (r) Uang beredar: M1, M2 Kredit, nilai tukar, dll.

r f ( rCB , Others )

Model proyeksi

Inflasi sebagai sasaran akhir jangka panjang. Is not a rule ; just a framework
Dalam penetapan sasaran inflasi jangka menengah panjang, dipertimbangkan sasaran yang optimal berdasarkan social welfare loss function implikasi dari tradeoff antara price dan output.

The Strategic Framework (1)

Indonesia has been practicing Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF) since 2000, but still use base money as operating target. Efforts for strengthening the framework: (i) Research and model for forecasting, (ii) Regular board meeting, and (iii) Communication. Starting July 2005, enhanced framework consistent with the implementation of ITF is introduced with four key elements: 1. BI Rate as a policy reference rate, 2. Forward looking strategy of monetary policy making, 3. More transparent communication strategy 4. Improved coordination with Government. The new framework is intended to enhance the effectiveness and governance of monetary policy making for achieving price stability to support economic growth and welfare.

The Strategic Framework (2)

Key Features of the Framework

The Strategic Framework (3) Inflation Targeting: A Framework, Not A Rule

Keterkaitan antara Variabel dan Pencapaian Sasaran Inflasi dalam ITF

SBI OPT FASBI FTO Likuiditas Pasar Uang Suku Bunga Kredit Total Supply Tekanan Inflasi Domestik

Balance Sheet
Harga Aset Ekspektasi

OUTPUT GAP

Sterilisasi Valas GWM

Total Demand Tekanan Inflasi Eksternal

INFLASI

NILAI TUKAR Besaran Moneter BI Rate

Indikator Aktiva DN Bersih Fasilitas pendanaan Pinjaman bank

Indikator Suku bunga PUAB, dan pinjaman IHSG, nilai tukar deposito,

Indikator Indeks Harga Impor

Indikator Survey/Leading Output Gap Policy Severity

Indikator IHK Headline/ Core Harga Aset Adm/Trade/ Volatile

Policy Formulation (1)

Main indicators for setting monetary policy response are inflation and economic growth. Monetary policy response consider behavior of linkage among economic variables and monetary policy transmission. Monetary policy formulation considers government economic policy. To support analysis of inflation and economic growths forecast, and relationship among economic variables: > Economic Model > Information Variable

Policy Formulation (2)

Policy Formulation (3)

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Monetary Policy Response (1)

Monetary Policy Response The monetary policy stance is determined each month in the monthly Board Meeting, drawing on material within a monthly scope. Monetary policy stance (BI Rate) is effective until the next Board Meeting. The decision concerning the monetary police stance (BI Rate) takes into account the monetary policy lag in influencing inflation. In unforeseen circumstances, the monetary policy stance may be adjusted in advance of the Monthly Board Meeting in a weekly Board Meeting.
Magnitude of Change in the BI Rate The monetary policy stance is expressed in changes to the BI Rate (consistent and progressive in increments of 25 bps). Under conditions indicating the need for stronger intentions on the part of Bank Indonesia for achievement of the inflation target, the BI Rate may be adjusted by more than 25 bps in increments of 25 bps

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Monetary Policy Response (2)

The BI Rate is the policy rate reflecting the monetary policy stance adopted by Bank Indonesia and announced to the public. The BI Rate is announced after monthly Board of Governors Meeting. It is implemented in the Bank Indonesia monetary operations conducted by means of liquidity management on the money market to achieve the monetary policy operational target. The monetary policy operational target is reflected in movement in the Interbank Overnight (O/N) Rate. It is then expected that bank deposit rates will track the movement in interbank rates, with bank lending rates to follow suit. While other factors in the economy are also taken into account, Bank Indonesia will normally raise the BI Rate if future inflation is forecasted ahead of the established inflation target. Conversely, Bank Indonesia will lower the BI Rate if future inflation is predicted below the inflation target.

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Monetary Policy Response (3)

Basic Consideration to decide Policy Response:
BI Rate is central bank response on future pressure on inflation gap BI Rate is set discretionary by Board of Governor considering:

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> BI Rate recommendation from economic model > other information: leading indicators, survey, anecdotal information, information variable, expert opinion, risk factor assessment and uncertainty, economic and monetary policy research.
BI Rate is changed mainly if inflation gap forecast is considered

permanent and consistent with other information and indicators.

Monetary Policy Response (3)

Bank sentral secara eksplisit memiliki target inflasi dan berjanji untuk mencapai target tsb pada suatu periode waktu tertentu (time horizon). BS melakukan forecast inflasi dng semua informasi yang ada. BS menggunakan instrumen kebijakan moneter untuk mencapai target inflasi tersebut. Jika forecast inflasi berbeda dng target inflasi, BS melakukan perubahan stance kebijakan moneter (umumnya menggunakan Taylors type rule): r = rt-1 + ( - *) + (y - y*);
dimana

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, >0

Jika gagal mencapai target, harus menjelaskan ke publik. BS memberikan laporan secara reguler kpd publik mengenai outlook inflasi dan kebijakan yang diambil.

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Kerangka Operasional Kebijakan Moneter (BI-rate) Menggunakan Koridor Suku Bunga

Operational Framework (1)

To achieve the overriding monetary policy objective, Bank Indonesia has implemented a monetary policy framework for management of interest rates (interest rate target). The policy rate, commonly known as the BI Rate. At the operational level, the BI Rate is reflected in movement in the Interbank Overnight (O/N) Rate. The interbank money market is the activity of lending and borrowing money between one bank and another bank. An interbank rate represents the price formed in a deal between parties lending and borrowing funds. Activity on the interbank is conducted over the counter (OTC) through deals between borrowers and holders of funds arranged without passing through an exchange floor. Interbank tenors range from one working day (overnight) to one year.

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Bank Indonesia will work consistently to safeguard and fulfill the liquidity needs of the banking system while maintaining the equilibrium for formation of fair, stable interest rates by doing monetary operation.

Operational Framework (2)

Monetary Operations represent the implementation of the

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monetary policy adopted by Bank Indonesia for the purpose of liquidity management and are conducted through Open Market Operations and Standing Facilities.
Open Market Operations, or OMO, are transactions conducted

by Bank Indonesia on the money market with banks and/or other parties within the framework of Monetary Operations, while Standing Facilities consist of lending facilities extended by Bank Indonesia to banks and/or other parties and deposit facilities extended to banks and/or other parties at Bank Indonesia for the purpose of Monetary Operations.

OPERASI MONETER (OM):

OPERASI PASAR TERBUKA (OPT) & STANDING FACILITIES (SF) Karakteristik
Inisiatif (vol) Fungsi dlm mgt likuiditas Mekanisme Transaksi BI Smoothing volatilitas suku bunga PUAB O/N Lelang

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OPT
Bank

SF
Koridor Suku Bunga PUAB O/N Non-lelang

ketersediaan
Peserta Jangka Waktu Instrumen

Tdk harus setiap hari

Bank & Lembaga Perantara Di atas O/N Penerbitan SBI Repo Reverse Repo Pembelian dan Penjualan SBN Term Deposit < T+1 (dpt quick setelmen, T+0, T+1)

Setiap hari
Bank O/N Deposit facility Lending facility

Setelmen

T+0

Penyempurnaan Operasi

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Kerangka Operasional Baru

Interest Rate
Repo (d/h FTE)

PUAB o/n

BI Rate = 6,5%

Deposit Facility (d/h FASBI o/n) =5,5%

Term Deposit (d/h FTK) SBI Reverse Repo Waktu

Interest Rate Corridor

Lending Facility (d/h Repo o/n) = 7,5%

Operational Framework
Monetary Operation Instruments of Bank Indonesia

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Operational Framework
Characteristics of Monetary Operation Instruments of Bank Indonesia
Absorpsi Likuiditas Instrumen dan Keterangan Dampak likuiditas Frekuensi transaksi
Jangka waktu

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Penerbitan SBI Term Deposit Mengurangi likuiditas Berkala Mengurangi likuiditas

Reverse Repo SBN Mengurangi likuiditas

Penerbitan SBIS Mengurangi likuiditas

Injeksi Likuiditas Sterilisasi FX Sterilisasi FX Repo (Spot jual USD (Spot beli USD dan SWAP beli) dan SWAP jual) Mengurangi Menambah Menambah likuiditas likuiditas likuiditas Sewaktu-waktu Sewaktu-waktu Sewaktu-waktu

Sewaktu-waktu Sewaktu-waktu Berkala

1 bln s.d. 12 bln 1 hari s.d. 12 bln 1 hari s.d. 12 bln 1 bln s.d. 12 bln 1 hari s.d. 12 bln Untuk Transaksi Untuk Transaksi (dinyatakan dlm. (dinyatakan dlm. (dinyatakan dlm. (dinyatakan dlm. (dinyatakan dlm. Swap s.d. 12 bln. Swap s.d. 12 bln. hari) hari) hari) hari) hari)

Nominal pengajuan minimal

Rp1.000jt

Rp1.000jt Rp100jt

Rp1.000jt Rp100jt

Rp1.000jt Rp100jt Lelang (non kompetitif) T+0 Bank Syariah/ UUS

Rp1.000jt Rp100jt Lelang VRT dan/ atau FRT s.d. T + 1 T+2 Bank Konvensional Bank Konvensional

Nominal kelipatan Rp100jt Mekanisme transaksi Setelmen Peserta Lelang VRT s.d. T + 1 Bank Konvensional

Lelang VRT dan/ Lelang VRT atau FRT s.d. T + 1 s.d. T + 1 Bank Konvensional Bank Konvensional

T+2 Bank Konvensional

Operational Framework
Characteristics of Monetary Operation Instruments of Bank Indonesia

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Instrumen dan Keterangan

Dampak likuiditas

Penempatan Dana Deposit FASBIS Facility

Mengurangi likuiditas Setiap Hari Kerja overnight Rp1.000jt Rp100jt FRT T+0 BI Rate 100bps Bank

Penyediaan Dana Repo Lending Facility SBIS/SBSN

Menambah likuiditas Setiap Hari Kerja overnight Rp1.000jt Rp100jt FRT T+0 BI Rate + 100bps Bank Menambah likuiditas Setiap Hari Kerja overnight Rp1.000jt Rp100jt FRT T+0 BI Rate + 100bps Bank

Mengurangi likuiditas Setiap Hari Frekuensi transaksi Kerja overnight Jangka waktu Nominal pengajuan Rp1.000jt minimal Rp100jt Nominal kelipatan Mekanisme FRT transaksi T+0 Setelmen BI Rate Suku bunga 100bps Bank Peserta

OPT
SBI : minimum 1 month holding period
PBI OM Pasal 13 ayat 1: Dalam jangka waktu tertentu sejak memiliki SBI, pemilik SBI dilarang melakukan transaksi atas SBI yang dimilikinya dengan pihak lain.

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SE OPT: Definisi Kewajiban bagi pembeli SBI baik di pasar primer maupun di pasar sekunder untuk mempertahankan kepemilikannya minimal selama 1 bulan (28 hari kalender).
SE OPT: Transaksi SBI yang tidak diperbolehkan selama masa holding Transaksi repo (sell & buy back dan collateralized); Transaksi outright; Transaksi pengagunan; dan Transaksi hibah. SE OPT: Transaksi SBI yang diperbolehkan selama masa holding 1. Transaksi dengan Bank Indonesia, baik yang bersifat repo (d/r FLI, Repo SBI) maupun pengagunan (d/r FPJP); dan 2. Transaksi SBI yang dilakukan setelah berlakunya PBI OM yang merupakan bagian dari transaksi yang telah dilakukan sebelum PBI OM ini diberlakukan, sampai dengan transaksi yang bersangkutan jatuh waktu. Sub-Registry wajib menatausahakan SBI milik nasabahnya dengan memenuhi ketentuan sebagaimana di atas.

Kebijakan Makro Prudential

Perlkembangan terkini, Semakin Banyak Bank Sentral Menerapkan Bauran Kebijakan ITF dan MakroPrudential, disebabkan oleh:
Bubble Harga Asset Global Financial Crisis 2008 memberikan pelajaran pentingnya Policy Mix Macro Prudential Instruments.

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