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Introduction
This unit discusses another economic policy tool called monetary theory. Similar to fiscal policy or Keynesian theory it focuses on demand. However, its main emphasis is controlling the demand for money by consumers and businesses.
In the United States, monetary policy and the tools used to control the supply of money are controlled and implemented by the Federal Reserve.
Examples of routine market purchases include paying for gas, buying lunch, shopping for clothes, buying a home.
Payments are made using cash, check, debit card, credit card, and loans. Think about the money that you have in your wallet or purse, and in your checking account. Chances are this money is for your routine transactions that occur every day.
Examples include money held in certificates of deposit, extra cash kept in a checking account, and extra cash kept in a money market account or a savings account.
Uses of money for precautionary demand included unexpected illnesses, a great deal on some new electronic equipment, or the unexpected loss of a car or home not adequately covered by insurance. Most people think of this money as their emergency money although it can also be used to take advantage of a great bargain.
The market demand curve for money indicates that as the price of money falls (the cost in terms of the interest rate), the demand for money will increase.
The supply of money is fixed by current monetary policy initiated and controlled by the Federal Reserve. So in regards to the money supply, the supply curve is vertical, while the demand for money is a downward sloping curve.
Money supply The amount of money demanded (held) depends on interest rates Equilibrium Money demand
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Quantity Of Money (billions of dollars)
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E1
E2
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Quantity Of Money (billions of dollars)
Economic Effects
Federal Reserve policy changes have an effect on aggregate demand. Monetary stimulus is achieved by the Federal Reserve through: Increasing the supply of money. Reducing interest rates. Buying bonds in the market. As a rule, a 1/10 point reduction in long-term interest rates can produce $10 billion dollars in fiscal stimulus according to Alan Greenspan, former chair of the Federal Reserve.
Economic Effects
Federal Reserve policy can also be used to restrain the economy.
Reluctant Lenders Private banks may not be willing to increase their lending activity. They may be concerned about consumer or business credit quality and/or general economic conditions.
Liquidity Trap If interest rates are already low, people may continue to hold money waiting for better investment options, and not seek loans or conduct additional spending. At this point the demand curve is horizontal and increases in the supply of money do not push rates lower.
Concept 4: Monetarists
Keynes believed changes in the money supply can affect aggregate demand. Changes in the supply of money occur when interest rates change. Monetarists believe that changes in short-term interest rates (like the discount rate and federal funds rate) do not have a significant effect on the supply of money. They believe the changes in these rates affect the price of money. Monetarists believe that monetary policy is not effective for recessionary problems, but is effective against inflation.
Concept 4: Monetarists
Monetary policy can be viewed as a relationship between four variables according to Monetarists. The relationship is expressed by the equation of exchange. The equation of exchange shows the relationship between four variables that affect monetary policy.
Monetarists believe that any change in the supply of money (M) will alter total spending (PQ), even if interest rates change.
Further Analysis
When interest rates fall, borrowers are very happy. Interest rates on mortgages and car loans fall which increases lending activity and new purchases. Banks and other lenders receive lower income from lending activity as interest rates fall. However it is important to examine the real rate of interest again. During a period of higher rates, a bank may have been loaning money for mortgages at 9% when inflation was at 6%; the real rate of interest is 3%. If both nominal interest rates and the inflation rate falls, the bank may be loaning money for mortgages at 5%, but if the rate of inflation is only 2%, then the real rate of interest remains at 3%.
Further Analysis
So is anyone not happy about lower interest rates? Well the banks and other lenders may not be if the real interest rate has fallen. Their profits are likely to be lower. Individuals who have investments in savings account, CDs, money market accounts, and Treasury bills will receive lower rates of interest on their savings and investments. Their incomes will be lower as a result.
Summary Demand for money (3). Equilibrium rate of interest. Monetary stimulus and constraints. Real interest rate. Equation of Exchange. Keynesian view of monetary policy. Monetarist view of monetary policy.