Problem Solving & Decision Making

Alexandria 2007

Problem Solving
Background to Problem Solving Setting the Problem Statement Analyze the Problem in Detail Identify Likely Causes Define Actual Causes

(1)

Background to Problem Solving

What is PAID?
A logical problem solving process can be done through some steps called "PAID"

Problem Statement Analyze the problem in detail Identify likely causes Define actual cause(s)

 Problems exist when someone or something is not performing as expected. Action needs to be taken to solve the problem thus action should follow from a clear understanding of the problem. To understand problem solving it is necessary to distinguish between symptoms of a problem and its causes. Identification of the cause of a problem is the key to problem solving. Once you know the real cause of the problem, you can decide how to deal with it

Causes and Symptoms of a Problem

It is necessary to distinguish between the symptoms of a problem and its causes. What is the best indication that a problem can be solved?
The symptoms of the problem have been treated?
OR

The cause of the problem has been isolated?

Sure symptoms treatment not a solution but once you have found the real cause of a problem you can decide how to deal with it.

Diagram of a Problem
To help understand what we are looking for when finding the cause of a problem, it is worthwhile looking at a problem diagrammatically. Look at the diagram on the right. It shows performance over time. In this case it is constant, but is there a problem?

 What do you think the area with the positive variance is called?

It is called Opportunity" An opportunity is the exact opposite of a problem. Opportunities occur when performance is better than expected. They can be analyzed in the same way as problems. You want to find out what caused an opportunity to happen.
So that you can exploit it to the full or make it happen elsewhere.

 The point x is highlighted. In any situation with a problem, there must be an historical point.
When actual performance started to deviate.

Something happened at the time x which caused the problem to occur. Problems don't occur without a reason. If you can pinpoint the timing of x and discover what happened.
Then you have found the cause of a problem.

Problem Solving Action Flow

Set a Problem Statement
Describe the problem Develop a one sentence problem statement

Analyze the problem in detail

Analyze what is wrong Analyze what is right

Identify likely causes

What's different? What has changed? What are the most likely explanations?

Define actual cause/s

What is the most likely explanation? Can I prove it?

Avoiding Pitfalls
(A) Giving up too early (B) Jumping straight to conclusions about the cause (C) Not getting the right people involved (D) Not collecting all the relevant data The worst one is B " because. It is always very tempting to think you know the cause of a problem straight away, jump to conclusions and take action to solve it.

(2)

Setting the Problem Statement

Describe the problem Develop a one sentence problem statement

Describe the Problem

The purpose of describing the problem is to create an impressionistic view of it - something on which to lay a solid foundation for further work. Choose what you would do first from this list:
A. Write down a list of possible causes B. Undertake a detailed analysis to produce a structured picture of the problem C. Write down everything you know about the problem D. Interview the people you think are to blame for the problem

Brainstorming
Creative thinking techniques have a potentially powerful role in the PAID process. They are a very good starting point when you have a blank piece of paper. They can help you get insights into the nature of the problem that purely analytical techniques couldn't. many people broadly know what it means, but don't do it properly. Even though it's a creative thinking technique it has several rules which must be followed to make it work.

Brainstorming
See if you can identify what we can use brainstorming for as part of sorting out a statement of the problem.
To generate as many ideas as possible about:
A. The overall nature of the problem B. The actions to be taken to solve the problem C. Possible causes of the problem D. Specific aspects of the problem

It is essential you keep to the following rules, if brainstorming is to work:

Rule Select a leader Write up the issue on a flip chart Reason The leader has responsibility for ensuring the rules are followed This is a very broad statement about the problem It should be visible during the session to ensure everyone remains focused The aim is to get as many ideas as possible. Quantity not quality This will encourage participation and help make the session fun

Invite the group to give their ideas Write the ideas on a flip chart no matter how wild

Avoid discussing the ideas generated Discussion should take place later...once the ideas are sorted Stop the session when the group runs out of ideas Creative thinking techniques are 'quick and dirty' - don't waste time if you are stuck

Brainstorming
You are the leader of a brainstorm session looking at a customer service problem.
A member of the group gives an idea you know is completely irrelevant. What should you do?
A. Write down the idea as stated B. Modify the idea to make it relevant and write that down C. Ignore the idea completely D. Ask members of the group whether they think the idea is relevant

Setting the Problem Statement

A problem statement is a single sentence which embraces your understanding of the problem.
Not the cause of the problem, but the problem itself.

Setting the problem statement is the single most important action you will take in the whole problem solving process. It is so important that you must be prepared to put in time and effort to get it right.

Setting the Problem Statement

But why is setting the problem statement so important? Several potential reasons are given below
1. Get the problem statement wrong and you will search in the wrong areas for the problem's cause. 2. A clear problem statement enables you to decide what work must be completed to find the cause. 3. Keeping the problem statement visible during the search for the cause keeps effort focused in the right area.

The problem statement provides the context within which all further work takes place.

Effective Problem Statements

If a problem statement is to do its job it must be:
A single sentence. Precise. Understandable to a person with no knowledge of the problem area. Neutral. Based on the description of the problem.

Try and remember these characteristics because the following screens will ask you to judge different problem statements

Effective Problem Statements

Which is best? A. To find the reason for a rising trend of
rejects at the final assembly stage of production B. To find the cause of an increasing trend of quality problems during the production process

Effective Problem Statements

Which is the most effective?
A. To find why, in recent months, call centre representatives are taking longer to answer the phone B. To find why, over the last three months, complaints are increasing about the time callers are kept waiting before they speak to a call centre representative

Effective Problem Statements

Which of the two problem statements presented below is the most effective?
A. To find the cause/s of the staff turnover problem in the Operations Function. B. To ascertain why so many people have left the Operations Function over the past 12 months.

The Completed First Stage

When you have completed the first stage of the PAID problem solving process you will have: A description of the problem. This will probably contain things like:
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Your notes on how you see the problem Notes of conversations with other people involved Examples of how the problem manifests itself Write-ups of brainstorms, bug lists or reversals Any available statistics which showed you have a problem

You will then sort out all this information to produce:

The Problem Statement

A one sentence statement which incorporates your understanding of the problem

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Analyze the Problem in Detail

Analyze what is wrong Analyze what is right

Analyzing what is wrong

Here you are aiming to develop a detailed specification of the problem. This involves measuring its scale and scope, determining what the detailed symptoms are and the negative consequences they cause. It also needs to determine who is involved and when and how often the problem occurs.

Analyzing what is right

The purpose of this is to determine what the problem is not. If things are going well, then they can't be part of the problem. By analyzing what is right you can eliminate potential causes of the problem and limit the scope of your investigation.

Overview
Analyze the Problem in Detail
Though both activities are equally important, this is rarely reflected in how problem solvers behave Individuals and teams attempting to solve important organizational problems, nearly always focus on what is wrong, ignoring what is right The result is solutions that come to wrong conclusions, vital aspects of the situation are ignored and underlying problems remain unsolved. Make sure you avoid the trap of concentrating only on what is wrong and ignoring what is right