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Debates in Macroeconomics: Monetarism, New Classical Theory, and Supply Side Economics
Prepared by: Fernando Quijano and Yvonn Quijano
Keynesian Economics
In a broad sense, Keynesian economics is the foundation of modern macroeconomics. In a narrower sense, Keynesian refers to economists who advocate active government intervention in the economy. Two major schools decidedly against government intervention have developed: monetarism and new classical economics.
Monetarism
The main message of monetarism is that money matters. The monetarist analysis of the economy places emphasis on the velocity of money, or the number of times a dollar bill changes hands, on average, during a year; the ratio of nominal GDP to the stock of money (M): GDP or P Y or M V P Y V V M M
2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
M V P Y
If there is equilibrium in the money market, then the quantity of money supplied is equal to the quantity of money demanded. When M is taken to be the quantity of money demanded, this equality would make the quantity of money demanded dependent on nominal GDP, but not the interest rate.
2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
However, whether velocity is constant or not may depend partly on how we measure the money supply.
2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
Monetarists advocate a policy of steady and slow money growth, at a rate equal to the average growth of real output (Y).
2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
Others reject the strict monetarist position in favor of the view that both monetary and fiscal policies make a difference and at the same time believe the best possible policy is basically noninterventionist.
Naive expectations are inconsistent with the assumptions of microeconomics. If people are out to maximize utility and profits, they should form their expectations in a smarter way.
Rational Expectations
The rational-expectations hypothesis assumes people know the true model of the economy and that they use this model to form their expectations of the future.
By true model we mean a model that is on average correct, even though predictions are not exactly right all the time.
Rational Expectations
People are said to have rational expectations if they use all available information in forming their expectations. Because there are costs associated with making a wrong forecast, it is not rational to overlook information, as long as the costs of acquiring that information do not outweigh the benefits of improving its accuracy.
The difference between the actual price level and the expected price level is the price surprise.
2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
The argument against rational expectations is that it required households and firms to know too much. People must know the true model, or at least a good approximation of it, and this is a lot to expect.
2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
Supply-Side Economics
Orthodox macro theory consists of demand-oriented theories that failed to explain the stagflation of the 1970s. Supply-side economists believe that the real problem was that high rates of taxation and heavy regulation had reduced the incentive to work, to save, and to invest. What was needed was not a demand stimulus but better incentives to stimulate supply.
2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
When households receive a higher aftertax wage, they might have an incentive to work more, but they may also choose to work less.