UNIVERSITY OF ARTS, BELGRADE Masters program in management in culture

Course in social research methods

Sampling techniques
Slobodan Cvejic, PhD Belgrade University, Faculty of Philosophy scvejic@sbb.rs

SAMPLE

The word is used in a variety of ways in scientific and everyday language (e.g. textile industry, reporter in the street, public opinion researcher) Sample defined: a segment of population that provides reliable information about investigated features of that population; a subset of cases selected in certain way to provide reliable conclusions on investigated topics Function of sample: to save time and money, and yet provide solid grounds for improvement of knowledge and policy making History of sampling: when statistics spread over sciences the need appeared to extend data collection about different issues; Neyman defined how to conclude from a part to the whole; from mid 1900s on the most of the statistics is about inference from sample to population; even some censuses done on large samples
RESEARCH METHODS: sampling

NON-PROBABILITY SAMPLES

Subjective judgement in selection Chosen for convenience or on the basis of systematically employed criteria Types

Convenience sample (most easily approached cases) Most similar/most dissimilar sample (cases with similar features) Typical case sample (usefull cases, not extreme) Critical case sample (cases that are key or essential) Snowball sample (cases from first selection identify additional cases to be selected) Quota sample (cases selected according to the population proportions)

Subjective selection external valididty and credibility at risk RESEARCH METHODS: sampling

PROBABILITY SAMPLES

Probability: apriori and aposteriori, mathematical and statistical statistics deals with mass of cases, stohastic probability established empiricaly, after the occasion Relative frequences to probabilities (e.g. throwing the dice) Importance of statistical probability allows for inference from a part to the whole In statistical experiment (a study) it is not important to have equal or certain probabilities for outcomes it is only important to know which those probabilites are
RESEARCH METHODS: sampling

PROBABILITY SAMPLES

Each unit in the population has a known, nonzero probability of being included in the sample Random selection necessary to eliminate subjective judgements either using a lottery procedure or using computer program to generate random numbers Random does not mean arbitrary or haphazard random selection is very careful ensuring independence of selections Completely random selection is an ideal our goal is not to avoid all possible risks of subjectivity, but to be able to measure their impact on inference Sometimes we give certainty of selection to some cases, or make corrections to probability post-hoc
RESEARCH METHODS: sampling

PROBABILITY SAMPLES

Types
Simple random Systematic Stratified Cluster Multistage

RESEARCH METHODS: sampling

3R RULE

3 principles for making a good probability sample

Realism adjusting goals, definitions and selection procedures to realistic framework (e.g. audience of a movie vs. cinema audience of the movie) Randomization at least at one step selection should be random in order to eliminate subjective judgments and increase external validity and credibility (e.g. choose cities at hand, choose households in those cities systematicaly, but choose persons inside the households at random) Reprezentativness population in minimizing mirror

Target population research population Target sample research sample

RESEARCH METHODS: sampling

INFERENCE BASED ON SAMPLE

SAMPLE DESIGN SAMPLE SELECTION FEATURE X MEASUREMENT OF FREQUENCES FOR EACH VALUE OF X DISTRIBUTION OF FREQUENCES S A M P L E

INFERENCE
P O P U DISTRIBUTION L OF A PROBABILITY T I O N

EXPERIMENT DESIGN

DEFINITION OF OUTCOMES

DEFINITION OF SAMPLING FRAME

ASIGNING A NUMBER TO EACH OUTCOME

RANDOM VARIABLE X

DEFINITION OF PROBAB. FOR EACH VALUE OF X

RESEARCH METHODS: sampling

PRACTICAL SAMPLING DESIGN

TARGET POPULATION To whome we want to genralize findings STUDY POPULATION Operational definition of target population & measurement instruments SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION The distribution of an estimator computed from many samples centered around its expected value SAMPLE The subset of subjects or units for which data is obtained

Components and Sources of Total Error

NONSAMPLING BIAS - Listing & Frame - Nonresponse - Measurement Error SAMPLING BIAS - Selection Bias - Estimation Bias
SAMPLING VARIABILITY - Sample Size - Sample Homogeneity

T O T A L E R R O R

RESEARCH METHODS: sampling

POST-SAMPLING CHOICES

Weighting to adjust sample distributions to probabilities

FEMALE POPULATION SAMPLE 50% 80% MALE 50% 20%

WEIGHT
FINAL

0.625
80 * 0.625=50

2.5
20 * 2.5=50

Evaluation of nonresponse (potential for nonsampling bias)

Plan to minimize nonresponse follow up Post-hoc solutions: forced face to face interviews with sample of nonrespondents on restricted number of variables that are of utmost interest; e.g. Average score on test 94 out of 100 points; if response rate 90%, average score of 34 by nonrespondents needed to reverse conclusions, if rate 80% - 64 points, if 75% - 70 points
RESEARCH METHODS: sampling