Global Warming

Will Human-Induced Climate Change Destroy the World?

Introduction
Is the world getting warmer? If so, are the actions of mankind to blame for earths temperature increases? What can/should be done about these issues? Are the potential resolutions worth the cost to implement them?

History of Earths Climate

Earth formed ~4.6 billion years ago Originally very hot Suns energy output only 70% of present Liquid water present ~4.3 billion years ago (zircon dating) Much of earths early history erased during late heavy bombardment (~3.9 billion years ago)

History of Earths Climate

Life appeared ~3.8 billion years ago Photosynthesis began 3.5-2.5 billion years ago
Produced oxygen and removed carbon dioxide and methane (greenhouse gases) Earth went through periods of cooling (Snowball Earth) and warming

Earth began cycles of glacial and interglacial periods ~3 million years ago

Earths Temperature
Solar
Sun

Energy Solar Energy

Earths Temperature
Sun

Solar Energy

Radiative Cooling

Earths Temperature
Sun

Solar
Radiative Cooling

Energy

Earths Temperature
Sun

Solar Energy

Radiative Cooling

Sun

Greenhouse Effect

Earths Atmospheric Gases

Nitrogen (N2) Oxygen (O2) Argon (Ar) Water (H2O) Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4)

Non>99% Greenhouse Gases

Greenhouse <1% Gases

Sun

Runaway Greenhouse Effect

97% carbon dioxide 3% nitrogen Water & sulfuric acid clouds Temperature: 860F

Venus

Carbon Dioxide

420 370 CO2 (ppm)

Carbon Dioxide Levels

Muana Loa Readings CO2 Levels Since 1958 370 350 330 310 40 30 20 10 0 CO2 (ppm)
Dome Concordia

320
270 220 170 600000

Vostok Ice Core

400000 200000 Time (YBP)

Worldwide Carbon Emissions

Carbon (109 metric tons)
8 7 6

5
4 3 2 1

Total Liquid fuel Solid fuel Gas fuel

0 1750

1800

1850 1900 Year

1950

2000

Annual Carbon Emissions

Annual carbon emissions Atmospheric CO2 Atmospheric CO2 average

Carbon (109 metric tons)

0 1955

1965

1975 1985 Year

1995

2005

Future Carbon Dioxide Levels

Increasing CO2 emissions, especially in China and developing countries Likely to double within 150 years:
Increased coal usage Increased natural gas usage Decreased petroleum usage (increased cost and decreasing supply)

Kyoto Protocol
Adopted in 1997 Cut CO2 emissions by 5% from 1990 levels for 2008-2012 Symbolic only, since cuts will not significantly impact global warming

Past Temperatures

0.8 D Mean Temperature (C) 0.6 0.4

Recorded Worldwide Temperatures

Flat

Decreasing Flat

0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 1880 1900 1920 1940 Year 1960 1980 2000

Historic Los Angeles Temperatures

Annual Temperatures
22 25

Summer Temperatures
17

Winter Temperatures

21

24

16

20

23

15

Temperature (C)

19

22

14

18

21

13

17

20

12

16

19

11

15 18 10 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

Year

Year

2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980

2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980

-4.1

-4

-2

-1

-.5

-.2

.2

.5

4.1

Past Temperatures Measurement

Proxy a method that approximates a particular measurement (e.g., temperature)
Tree rings Ice cores Pollen records Plant macrofossils Sr/Ca isotope data Oxygen isotopes from speleothem calcite (stalactites and stalagmites)

Temperature History of the Earth

Little ice age (1400-1840) 1C cooler Medieval warm period (800-1300) 1C warmer than today Cool/warm cycles occur ~1,500 years Affect mostly Northeastern U.S. and North Atlantic Mostly due to changes in thermohaline circulation Dramatic shutdown of thermohaline circulation occurred 8,200 years ago as a large lake in Canada flooded the North Atlantic

Main Ocean Currents

Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 4-2

Temperature History of the Earth

For the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation followed by ~10,000 year long interglacial periods These climate periods are largely the result of cycles in the earths orbit precession, obliquity, and eccentricity

Orbital Parameters: Precession

Apehelion

Perihelion

Orbital Parameters: Obliquity

24.5 22.5

Orbital Parameters: Eccentricity

Maximum: 0.061 Minimum: 0.005

Apehelion Apehelion

Perihelion

Not To Scale! to scale!

Orbital Parameters & Earths Climate

Precession (22 ky) Obliquity (41 ky) Eccentricity (100 ky)

Temperature

1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Age (kya)

Temperature History of the Earth

For the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation followed by ~10,000 year long interglacial periods Last ice age began to thaw 15,000 years ago, but was interrupted by the Younger Dryas event 12,900 years ago

Younger Dryas Event

Temperature (C) -30 -35 -40 Ice Age -45 -50 -55 20 15 10 Age (kya) 5 0.30 Medieval Warm 0.25 Snow Accumulation (m/yr) -25 Younger Dryas 0.35

Little Ice Age 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0

Younger Dryas Event

-8.0 -7.5 -7.0 d18O (China) Younger Dryas -34 -35 -36 -37 -38 -39 -40 -41 -42 -43 -44 10 d18O (Greenland)

-6.5
-6.0 -5.5

-5.0
-4.5

-4.0 16

15

14

13 12 11 Age (kya)

Temperature History of the Earth

Middle Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million ya) Temperatures: 2C higher than today.
20C higher at high latitudes 1C higher at the Equator

Sea levels were 100 ft higher Causes

CO2 levels that were 100 ppm higher Increased thermohaline circulation

Temperature History of the Earth

Eocene (41 million years ago) Opening of the Drake Passage (between South America and Antarctica). Increased ocean current exchange
Strong global cooling First permanent glaciation of Antarctica ~34 million years ago

Temperature History of the Earth

Paleocene Thermal Maximum (55 mya) Sea surface temperatures rose 5-8C Causes
Increased volcanism Rapid release of methane from the oceans

Temperature History of the Earth

Mid-Cretaceous (120-90 mya) Much warmer Breadfruit trees grew in Greenland Causes
Different ocean currents (continental arrangement) higher CO2 levels (at least 2 to 4 times higher than today, up to 1200 ppm)

A Compilation of Phanerozoic Atmospheric CO2 Records

6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 30 60

Atmospheric CO2 Concentration (ppmV)
Continental Glaciation (Paleolatitude)

D Carb Paleozoic

Tr

J Mesozoic

Pg Ng Cenozoic

90

400

300

200

100

Breecker D O et al. PNAS 2010;107:576-580

Recent Temperature Changes

Hockey Stick Controversy

Temperature Change (C) 0.6 0.4
0.2 0

Direct temperature measurements Mann et al. 1999

-0.2
-0.4 -0.6 -0.8 1000 1200 1400 1600 Year 1800 2000

The Problem with Tree Rings

0.3 Jones et al. 1998 Briffa et al. 1999 0.2 Mann et al. 1999 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 1000 1200 1400

Temperature Change (C)

1600 Year

1800

2000

What Influences Tree Rings?

Temperature Rainfall Carbon dioxide concentration

Is the Hockey Stick Correct?

Temperature Change (C) 2 1 0 -1 -2 800 Mann et al. 1999 Esper et al. 2002

1000

1200

1400 Year

1600

1800

2000

0.4 Temperature Change (C) 0.2 0.0

Is the Hockey Stick Correct?

Medieval Warm Period

-0.2
-0.4

-0.6 -0.8
-1.0 -1.2 0
Mann et al. 1999 Esper et al. 2002 Moberg et al. 2005 Mann et al. 2008

400

800

1200 Year

1600

2000

U.S. National Academy of Sciences: June 2006

Temperature Change (C) 0.6 0.4
0.2 0
2:1 chance of being right high level of confidence

-0.2
-0.4 -0.6 -0.8 1000 1200 1400 1600 Year 1800 2000

Atmospheric Temperatures
0.8 Temperature Cgange (C)

Troposphere

1.5 1.0
0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 1980

Stratosphere

0.6
0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2

-0.4
-0.6 1980 1990 Year 2000

1990 Year

2000

CO2 Concentration Vs. Temperature

370
CO2 (ppm) Antarctica 320 270 220 31 30 29 28 27 26 025 SST (C) Tropical Pacific

170

600000

400000 200000 Time (YBP)

Consequences of Global Warming

Global Warming Primarily Impacts the Northern Hemisphere

Northern vs. Southern Latitude Land vs. Ocean
Land Ocean

Temperature Change (C)

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2

Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere

0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 1920 1960 Year 2000 1920 1960 Year 2000

2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980

-4.1

-4

-2

-1

-.5

-.2

.2

.5

4.1

Ice Sheets Melting?

GRACE (gravity measured by satellite) found melting of Antarctica equivalent to sea level rise of 0.4 mm/year (2 in/century) Zwally, 2005 (satellite radar altimetry)
confirmed Antarctica melting Greenland ice melting on exterior, accumulating inland (higher precipitation)

Melting Glaciers Mt. Kilimanjaro

Changes in Antarctica Ice Mass

1000

800
Ice Mass (km3) 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 2003 2004 Year 2005

Rise in Sea Levels?

Present rate is 1.8 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century) Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 0.006 mm/yr2 If acceleration continues, could result in 12 in/century sea level rise Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are unrealistic

Changing Sea Levels

20

Global Temperature Change

Relative Sea Level (cm)

10 0 -10 -20 1700

Amsterdam, Netherlands Brest, France Swinoujscie, Poland

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5

Sea Levels for 450,000 Years

20 0

Sea Level (m)

30
29 28 27

-20 -40 -60 -80

-100

26
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

-120

25

Time (KYBP)

SST (C) Tropical Pacific

31

Increase in Hurricanes?
15 SST/SPDI (meters3/sec2) Data Unreliable Two studies showed the total number of hurricanes has not changed 10 However, the intensity of hurricanes has increased (more category 4 and 5 hurricanes and cyclones) 5Probably due to higher sea surface August-October temperatures (more Scaled energy) Sea-Surface Temperature Difficult to know if this trend will Storm Adjusted Atlantic Power Dissipation Index 0continue 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

How Much Temperature Increase?

Some models propose up to 9C increase this century Two studies put the minimum at 1.5C and maximum at 4.5C or 6.2C Another study puts the minimum at 2.5C

Wildlife Effects
Polar Bears
Require pack ice to live Might eventually go extinct in the wild

Sea turtles
Breed on the same islands as their birth Could go extinct on some islands as beaches are flooded

Other species may go extinct as rainfall patterns change throughout the world

Effect on Humans
Fewer deaths from cold, more from heat Decreased thermohaline circulation
Cooler temperatures in North Atlantic

CO2 fertilization effect Precipitation changes

Droughts and famine (some areas) Expanded arable land in Canada, Soviet Union

Potential Worldwide Precipitation Changes

-50

-20

-10

-5

10

20

50

Drought in Africa
Lake Faguibine Lake Chad

Cost to Stabilize CO2 Concentrations

1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Cost (Trillons U.S. Dollars)

450

550 650 Carbon Dioxide (ppm)

750

Possible Solutions to Global Warming

Mitigation of Global Warming

Conservation
Reduce energy needs Recycling

Alternate energy sources

Nuclear Wind Geothermal Hydroelectric Solar Fusion?

Storage of CO2 in Geological Formations

1. 2. 3. 4. Depleted oil and gas reservoirs CO2 in enhanced oil and gas recovery Deep saline formations (a) offshore (b) onshore CO2 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery

3b
3a

Adapted from IPCC SRCCS Figure TS-7

Global Warming Myths

Global Warming Has Stopped?

0.8 D Mean Temperature (C) 0.6 0.4 1366.8 Solar Irradiance (W/m2) 1366.6 1366.4 1366.2 1366.0

0.2 0.0

1365.8
1365.6 1365.4

1365.2 -0.2 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year

Volcanoes Put Out More CO2 Than Fossil Fuel Burning

Carbon (109 metric tons) 10

8
6 4 2 0 Volcanoes Fossil Fuel

Global Warming is Caused by Sunspots

0.8 D Mean Temperature (C) 0.6 250 200 150 100 50 0 Sunspots

0.4
0.2 0.0

-0.2 -0.4 -0.6 1880 1900 1920 1940 Year 1960 1980 2000

Hadley Temperatures Vs. Sunspots

1.5 1.0 0.0 250 200 150 100 50 0 Sunspots

D Mean Temperature (C)

-0.5

-1.0
-1.5

-2.0 1750

1800

1850

1900 Year

1950

2000

1.0 D Mean Temperature (C) 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0

Global Warming is Caused by GCR

4600 Gamma Cosmic Rays 4400 4200 4000 3800

3600
3400 3200 1960 1970 1980 Year 1990 2000 3000 2010

-0.2 -0.4 1950

CO CO Temperature Sea Level 2 Vs. 2 Vs.

40 6 20 4 Sea Level Relative Temperature 0 2 -20 0 260 -40 -2 240 -60 -4 -80 -6 220 200 180 320 300 280 CO2 (ppmv)

-100 -8 -120 -10

500000

400000

300000 200000 Time (ybp)

100000

Rohling et al. 2009. Antarctic temperature and global sea level closely coupled over the last five glacial cycles. Nature Geoscience 2:500.

Global Warming is Due to Urban Heat Islands

2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980

-4.1

-4

-2

-1

-.5

-.2

.2

.5

4.1

Mt. Kilimanjaro Glaciers are Melting Because of Global Warming

Global Warming Primarily Impacts the Northern Hemisphere

Northern vs. Southern Latitude Land vs. Ocean
Land Ocean

Temperature Change (C)

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2

Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere

0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 1920 1960 Year 2000 1920 1960 Year 2000

Sea Levels Will Rise 5-6 ft?

Present rate is 1.8 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century) Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 0.006 mm/yr2 If acceleration continues, could result in 12 in/century sea level rise Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are unrealistic Recently, the California State Lands Commission said that sea levels could rise 55 inches this century, inundating ports

Changing Sea Levels

20

Global Temperature Change

Relative Sea Level (cm)

10 0 -10 -20 1700

Amsterdam, Netherlands Brest, France Swinoujscie, Poland

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5

How Much Temperature Increase?

Global warming alarmists propose up to 9C increase this century Two studies put the minimum at 1.5C and maximum at 4.5C or 6.2C Another study puts the minimum at 2.5C

Predictions Vs. Reality

1.5
Annual Mean Global Temperature Change Exponential Increase in carbon emissions

1.0 DT (C)
Moderate reduction in carbon emissions

0.5

Drastic reduction in carbon emissions

Observed temps through 1988

OBSERVED SCENARIO A SCENARIO B SCENARIO C

-0.4 1990 Hansen, J. 1988. Journal Of Geophysical Research 93:9241. Date 1960 1970 1980 2000 2010 2019

Temperature Extrapolation
2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 -0.4 1960 1980 2000 2040 2020 Date 2060 2080 2100

DT (C)

Conclusions
Global warming is happening Most warming is probably the result of human activities There will be positive and negative (mostly) repercussions from global warming The costs to mitigate global warming will be high better spent elsewhere?