Challenges and Opportunities for Regional Cooperation in the Black Sea Region: A View from Romania

By Professor Adrian Pop National School for Political and Administrative Studies Bucharest

SWOT Analysis of the Cooperation Context Strong Points

Connection link along the emerging geopolitical and geo-economic axis Mediterranean Sea Black Sea Caspian Sea Geo-strategic position as new south-eastern EU border Giant market for the EU exports Low costs of the labour force Potential of a substantial flow of FDIs High potential of biodiversity in agricultural resources, tourism, and fisheries Valuable cultural heritage, diverse human capacities and social values Buffer zone where the Orthodox, Islamic and Western civilizations and cultures blend together

SWOT Analysis of the Cooperation Context Weak Points

Hardly a region at all and a clashing point of the major Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian global players interests Economic development constraints due to physical and climate conditions Intra and interregional disparities in economic development Environmental protection constraints due to the closed sea feature of the Black Sea Different statuses of the BSR countries vis--vis EU and NATO State fragility and poor administrative capacity Persistence of mutual distrust relations between some countries within the region Corruption, organized crime, illicit traffic and unresolved conflicts Demographical decline due to negative birth increase and labour migration Poor quality of the industrial and transport infrastructure Obsolete education infrastructure and technological level of the innovation centres

SWOT Analysis of the Cooperation Context

Opportunities

Meeting point of two geopolitical axes: North-South axis (Russia-ArmeniaIran) and the East-West axis (Caspian corridor to the EU) Substantial increase of GDP and FDIs after 2000 Access of coastal areas of the EU MS to the Cohesion Policy funds Big investments planned for the pan-European transport axis, oil and gas pipelines Activation of Black Sea Sectoral Partnerships Involving Russia and Turkey in the new EU cooperation initiatives CEPS proposals: a pan-European free trade area; a tripartite EU-RussiaUkraine gas pipeline agreement; linking the pan-European transport corridors to the westward corridors in Central Asia; an international effort to solve the water-hydro-energy crisis in Central Asia; a quadrilateral EURussia-Ukraine-Kazakhstan cooperation to tackling climate change Implementing new software technologies and vocational and lifelong education, for adapting to the requirements of Bologna process Increased demand for tourist services, expanded potentially to all coastline regions

SWOT Analysis of the Cooperation Context Threats

Poverty and economic underdevelopment Increased macro-economic instability due to the global economic crisis Excessive migration of high-skilled labour force towards EU countries Harsh competition of the newly industrialized countries within the field of industrial development and attracting FDIs Increase of the gap between the EU MS and their eastern neighbours in fields such as trade, single market, labour force mobility and the development of the knowledge-based society Environment degradation and natural disasters Augmentation of separatist trends and delays in solving local conflicts Corruption, organized crime and terrorism The resurgence of Russias spheres of influence policy Energy dependence used as a blackmailing tool Increased militarization of the geopolitics of energy Possible use of the BSR as a platform for military, reconstruction and stabilization operations in the Greater Middle East

Inflation of Regional Cooperation Organizations and Initiatives

Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization Community of Democratic Choice Organization for Democracy and Economic Development GUAM Black Sea Naval Cooperation Task Group (BLACKSEAFOR) Black Sea Harmony Black Sea Coast Forum Black Sea Border Coordination and Information Centre Black Sea Euro-region Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform Southeast European Cooperative Initiative Regional Center for Combating TransBorder Crime (SECI Center) Southeast European Cooperation Process Civil-Military Emergency Planning Council in South-Eastern Europe Black Sea Forum for Partnership and Dialogue Black Sea Synergy Eastern Partnership Union for the Black Sea

Conditions for the New EU Initiatives to Become Success Stories

Added value for all stakeholders Unambiguous recognition of the sovereignty of all the states involved Light-weight institutional framework Appropriate instruments Not impeding or overlapping the ENP Part and parcel of the EU community process Active involvement of Russia and Turkey Complementarity and correlation

Regional Cooperation Research Agenda

Building a research methodology Identifying the main thematic or sectoral dimensions of regional cooperation in the BSR Designing evaluation criteria for organizations, activities and initiatives Designing evaluation criteria for the impact of regional organizations, activities and initiatives on the economic, political and security environment in the BSR Evaluation of activities Analysis of the achievements and shortcomings Identifying overlapping activities Analysis of the degree in which regional cooperation in the BSR relates to the processes of European and Euro-Atlantic integration in the region

Environment

The EC full member status in the Black Sea Convention; EC suggestions for legal amendments to ensure that modern environmental policies and principles are applied to the Black Sea DABLAS Task Force: platform for cooperation for the protection of the Danube and the Black Sea chaired by EC; seeks to bring cohesion to the financing process; waste water infrastructure projects The EC technical assistance project for strengthening the capacity of implementing the Kyoto Protocol and negotiating a new agreement after 2012 Proposals: - Set up a system of proportional tax on water transport and through pipes taking into consideration the amount and the pollution risk - Set up a Regional Centre for Studying the Adaptations to the Climate Changes employing multinational personnel

Transport

TRACECA: long-term strategy for the corridor up to 2015 Extension of the major trans-European axes: Motorways of the Seas, the Central Transport Axis, the South-Eastern Transport Axis and the maritime safety measures Extension of the common aviation area: improved safety, strengthened civil aviation authorities Baku Process: aviation, security in all modes of transport, road and rail transport, transport infrastructure and maritime safety Black Sea Ring Highway Proposal: - Promote technical assistance and know-how transfer in the multimodal transport field

Maritime Policy

Setting up an integrated network of maritime surveillance systems and its possible extension to non-EU Black Sea riparian countries Setting up a European Network for Marine Data and Observations Forging a Regional Strategy for the Integrated Management of Black Sea Coast Areas Proposal: - Introduction of a legislative measure regarding the Black Sea in the measures package of ERICA I and II projects

Migration

Setting up a Regional Platform: EU MS, EU agencies, Black Sea riparian countries, regional organizations Mobility partnerships focused on circular and seasonal migration Visa facilitation and readmission agreements Awareness campaigns Institutional twinning Proposals: - Romania and Bulgaria to establish, together with FRONTEX, joint patrols in the Black Sea - Expand the consular representation of the EU MS in the Common Visa Application Centre in Chisinau - More flexible visa regimes imposed by EU MS at the Eastern border for their immediate neighbours

Cross-border Organized Crime

Proposals: - Set up a regional cooperation platform: relevant EU MS, EU agencies, countries bordering the Black Sea, and regional organizations such as BSEC, SECI Center in Bucharest, the Black Sea Border Coordination and Information Centre in Burgas and the Virtual Centre GUAM - ENP partner countries in the Black Sea Region to conclude and implement cooperation agreements with EUROPOL and FRONTEX - Interaction between Romania, Moldova, and Ukraine on combating organized crime to be coordinated within the BSEC framework - EU MS at the Eastern border to improve the integrated management system of their borders, set up common border checkpoints with their immediate neighbours and take part in the EUBAM mission

Civil Society Cross-border Cooperation

RO-RM-UKR cross-border cooperation programme, which covers the NW Black Sea coast: 126 million Euro Black Sea Basin Joint Operational Programme 2007-2013, whose one out of three objectives is to promote local, people-to-people contacts: 17 million Euro Various programmes developed under ENPI Black Sea Forum for Dialogue and Partnership GMFs Black Sea Trust for Regional Cooperation programmes

Energy

Accession of Black Sea countries to the Energy Community Treaty: start negotiations with Moldova, Ukraine and Turkey; Georgia as observer INOGATE: supports the development of new energy infrastructure projects through the provision of targeted technical assistance; promotes the regional integration of the oil and gas pipelines and facilitates transport both within the region of INOGATE participating countries and towards the export markets of Europe Baku Process: An Energy Road Map has been devised Supporting the gradual development of regional energy markets in littoral states of the Black and Caspian Seas and their neighbouring countries in order to facilitate a gradual integration between the respective energy markets and the EU market Getting appropriate funding for new infrastructure projects Embarking on energy efficiency policies and programmes

European Energy Security Strategy

1.

2.
3.

4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.

Liberalisation and integration of the European electricity and gas markets Fostering internal energy market Sustainable, efficient and diverse energy mix, including renewable energy (wind, biomass, geothermal) Extension of storage capacities Nuclear energy Encouraging innovation - Strategic European Energy Technology Plan Integrated approach to tackling climate change Solidarity / crisis-response mechanism Common voice coherent External Energy Policy A holistic approach energy as part of the Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP); Public Private Partnerships for security infrastructure

Challenges Facing Nabucco

1.

3300 km long, 5 jurisdictions complicated preparation process

Turkey: stalls the transit agreement for Azerbaijani gas

2 Increasingly complex environment in the Caspian region: growing competition; new security challenges 3. Difficulties to secure gas sources for the pipeline Azerbaijan: quantity, commitment Turkmenistan: commitment, quantity, transmission Iraq: security, quantity Egypt: quantity, routes Iran: geopolitical issues Russia: competition

EU Energy Soup

Unresolved Conflicts An Insecurity Area at the EU Eastern Border

EU Role in Unresolved Conflicts

Gaining time is counterproductive Georgia vs. Kosovo; geography and interests shouldnt lead to a selective application of intl law The only power which has the necessary negotiating clout; it should demonstrate confidence in its own strategic potential Attractiveness of the European integration model EU President, HR for the Union in FASP, European External Action Service, legal personality, reinforced cooperation in ESDP

Lessons learnt from the Russian-Georgian War

Two types of secessionist conflicts and Russian behaviour Abkhazia and South Ossetia along with the Turkish R. of Northern Cyprus, Taiwan, D.A.R. of Sahrawi and Kosovo EU as the principal diplomatic broker and peacekeeping actor: negotiations on a ceasefire; the agreement on troop withdrawals; the deployment of the EUMM Georgia in record time; and the co-hosting of the Geneva talks EU MS have acted in unity and with determination Maintaining equidistance while strengthening the Europeanisation project Working with Russia using the soft power diplomacy Direct contact with the breakaway regions Need to define a common strategy with the U.S.

Transnistria

Contrary to other unresolved conflicts, it doesnt involve an ethnic component Avoid transforming Transnistria into a Black Sea Kaliningrad A sustainable solution for Transnistria is a precondition for RMs becoming a democratic and prosperous EU neigbouring country and to keep momentum for RMs European option Proposals: - A step-by-step economic and infrastructure-oriented approach - Upgrade the status of the EU and US (currently observers) in the mechanism of mediation - Use the opportunities presented by the ENP-ESDP nexus: a possible future civilian EU-led police monitoring mission with the participation of neutral EU MS and non-EU states, including Russia and Ukraine

EC Proposed Future Actions in the Area

Setting up long-term measurable objectives in key sectors Forging partnerships for co-financing schemes Involving Belarus in selected Black Sea Synergy activities Strengthening the students and academics cooperation networks Setting up the Black Sea Civil Society Forum Setting up an Institute for European Studies

Academic research
Pop, Adrian (coordinator), Manoleli, Dan, Towards a European Strategy in the Black Sea Area: The Territorial Cooperation, Project SPOS 2007 Strategy and policies studies, European Institute of Romania, Bucharest, 2007. http://www.ier.ro/documente/spos2007_en/Spos2007_stud iu_4_en.pdf

EUs Eastern Neighbourhood: Future EU Eastern Border?