Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Marty Chen
WIEGO Network
Harvard Kennedy School
• policy responses
• “window of opportunity”?
EMPLOYMENT IMPACT:
COMMON ASSUMPTIONS
• Self-Employed: informal
– new entrants increased competition
– decreased demand and falling prices decreased
earnings
– fluctuations in exchange rates, interest rates, and
prices volatility and insecurity of earnings
SCALE OF
EMPLOYMENT IMPACT
ILO Global Trends Report 2009: predicts harsh labour
market conditions as a result of the crisis - highly probable
worst case scenario by end 2009 (since end 2007):
• New unemployed: an increase of 38 million
unemployed worldwide
• New working poor: an increase of 200 million working
poor, earning less than USD 2 per day, and unable to lift
themselves out of poverty (most of whom work in the
informal economy)
IMPACT ON
INFORMAL ECONOMY
Key Sectors:
• Export Commodities
• Export Manufacturing
• Construction
• Waste Recycling
Notes:
1. these are sectors which a) have been badly
affected by the current global recession and b) have high
concentrations of informal workers
2. women tend to dominate in labor-intensive export
manufacturing and in waste picking
EXPORT COMMODITIES:
SMALL AND MARGINAL FARMERS
• Non-oil commodities: prices expected to fall
significantly during 2009
• Factory workers: losing jobs or having their contracts changed (to part-
time and/or seasonal contracts)
– China: massive lay-offs in garment, toys, and electronic sectors, especially in
Pearl River Delta
– India: massive lay-offs in some sectors (diamond polishing) + less secure
contracts in other sectors (textile/garments)
– Lesotho: decline in aggregate demand for clothing and textiles from USA