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Effective and fast control measures are needed Models allow you to predict (estimate) when you dont KNOW
What are the costs and benefits of different control strategies? When should there be quarantines? Who should receive vaccinations? When should wildlife or domestic animals be killed? Which human populations are most vulnerable? How many people are likely to be infected? To get sick? To die?
Lipsitch (et al 2003) SARS SEIR Model predicts the effect of quarantine Susceptible-Exposeds-Infecteds-Recovereds Exposed (E) population is not yet infected
Simplifying assumptions
1. There are no births. 2. The only deaths are because of SARS. 3. The number of contacts of an infected individual with a susceptible person is constant and does not depend on the population density. 4. For susceptible individuals with exposure to the disease, the quarantine proportion (q) is the same for non-infected as for infected people. 5. Quarantine and isolation are completely effective. Someone who has the disease and is in quarantine or isolation cannot spread the disease.
One infectious person eventually gives rise to R0 =kb / (v +m +w) secondary infectious cases of SARS.
R0 determines The duration of spread before The pathogen disappears (before infecting everyone) All susceptibles die or become immune Note many individuals are NOT susceptible to many diseases The total number infected, recovered (immune) and dead
SIR CA exercise
ODE model a = 1/2 (you are infectious for 1 time step = 1 day) r = 1/2, R0 = 1 (on the cusp of an epidemic) --First, contacting only 1 person per time step CA Simulation Von Neumann 4 cell neighborhood S -> I if Heads chose 1 neighbor by rolling dye I -> R if Heads R -> R A: Initial State 3 I, others S (1< r < 2) Hand raised = Infected Arms crossed = Recovered Arms at sides = Susceptible Add simultaneous updates, birth, immigration
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Background reading Reading for Wednesday Keeling & Grenfell, Individual Based Perspectives on R0, Journal of Theoretical Biology v. 203 (2000)
Angela B. Shiflet and George W. Shiflet: Introduction to Computational Science Module 6