Brian Wernham

Chaos: a new perspective on Agile

governance
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brian.wernham@gmail.com
@BrianUkulele
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Why are YOU here today?
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@BrianUkulele
What is
Agile?
Agile only for
web
development?
Agile only for
tiny stuff?
Agile = loss of
control?
What is
DSDM?
Agile in
mission critical
projects?
2
What is
Scrum?
Are we talking
Governance of a project
of Governance of
portfolios of change?
This talk:
1. What is Agile?

2. What is Agile Governance?

3. Can we be ready for & take advantage of
the unexpected?
- Chaos Theory & Emergent Complexity

4. Kick-off the development of a guide for
Agile Governance

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3
1. What is Agile?
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The Big Design Up Front
mind-set
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I had better
ask for all
possible
features
At last a chance
to get what I
want!
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The Big Design Up Front is born
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The result of Big Design Up
Front
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Doh!
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As difficult as trying to swim up a
waterfall

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Scrum at the team level two
popular methods
Scrum
DSDM
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1. Scrum a team level approach
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Source: Mike Cohn www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/scrum
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Source: DSDM Consortium (DSDM = Driving Strategy, Delivering More)
An overview of two agile methods
2. DSDM a hybrid team/project level approach
2. What is Agile Governance?
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a) Time Driven

I dont want it perfect I want it Thursday
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Traditional Agile
Agile inverts the normal project
management paradigm
b) and minimises Work in Progress

There is no value in holding stock in a warehouse
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Traditional Agile
Design
Build
Test
Deploy
P/type
?
P/type
P/type
P/type
Agile focuses on flow
Can we define Agile Governance
principles at several levels:
Project Level?
Governance of one specific project?
Scrum? DSDM?

Programme Level?
Governance of hybrid programmes that comprises both:
Waterfall projects
& Agile projects?

Portfolio Level?
Governance across many projects?

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Is Agile Governance really about
being adaptable?
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Traditional
Project
Innovation
project
Hybrid
Programme
Design
Build
Test
Deploy
P/type
P/type
P/type
P/type
Control-freak
Governance
Agile
Governance
Arms-length
Governance
Innovation
Project
Innovation
Project
Traditional
Project
Traditional
Project
3. Can we be ready for & take
advantage of the unexpected?

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A brief overview of the practical impact of Chaos Theory
Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial conditions)
How long is a piece of string? (Fractals)
Satisficing a business case (Alternative stable states)

Complex outcomes from simple systems
Self-organisation
Ants
People (so very different?)

Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial
conditions)
For want of a nail the shoe was lost
For want of a shoe the horse was lost
For want of a horse the battle was lost
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Heat convection any difference in
initial conditions produces an
unpredicatble outcome after a
while:
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Increase the feedback and the
Lorenz equation becomes unstable
and chaotic:
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Complexity out of simplicity

e.g. the Lorenz Equation
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Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial
conditions)
For want of a nail the shoe was lost
For want of a shoe the horse was lost
For want of a horse the battle was lost
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No two snowflakes are the same

A simple fractal - The Koch Curve
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No two snowflakes are the same

A simple fractal - The Koch Curve
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How long is a piece of string?
(Fractals)

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Ruler length = x
Answer = y
Ruler length x/2
Answer = y*2.5
The result runs away from you the
closer you try to measure it
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The fractal dimension measures
this disappearing event horizon
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How long will it take to add just a
bit more detail to a business case
or spec?
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Alternative stable states
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Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems
Marten Scheffer, Nature, 2001
Self-organisation - Ants
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Self-organisation - Ants
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Self-organisation - People
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References
Daa, Josef
Chaos Theory in Project Management, Masaryk University, Brno
2014
Christopher, Martin
The Agile Supply Chain : Competing in Volatile Markets, Industrial
Marketing Management, Vol 29., No. 1., 2000, pp. 37-44
Yang, C
Hierarchical Summarization of Large Documents, Drexel University
Scheffer, Marten
Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems, Nature, 2001

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4. Kick-off the development of a
guide for Agile Governance

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brian.wernham@gmail.com
Blog: brianwernham.wordpress.com
@BrianUkulele
http://bit.ly/About-Brian

`
Thanks for listening!
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