Evidence from Selected Asian Economies Group Members Haseeb-ur-Rehman
Omer Ejaz Introduction This paper investigates the impact on foreign direct investment due to the Inflation (Consumer Prices), Official Exchange Rate, GDP (Current $ USD), GDP Growth Annual Percent Rate & Total Tax Rate of Commercial of (03) three Asian countries i.e Pakistan, Bangladesh & India. Secondary data has been gathered from the WorldBank website and articles during the time period of 1980 to 2011 for this purpose. In this paper, five variables are used Inflation, GDP (Current & Growth), Exchange Rate, Tax Rate are taken as independent variable whereas FDI is taken as dependant variables. To assess the impact of FDI on five dependant variables, time series data regression has been used.
Purpose of Study Purpose of study is that we want to know that how much independent variables Inflation, Tax Rate, GDP Growth, Exchange Rate, GDP Current affect the dependent variable FDI in three South Asian countries i.e. Pakistan, Bangladesh and India. For this purpose we use multiple regression that mentioned in Methodology and also described the results and we want to compare these countries i.e Pakistan, Bangladesh & India. Research Problem Factors that effects the FDI in Pakistan, Bangladesh & India.
Research Question Is GDP current, GDP growth, exchange rate, tax rate and inflation has an effect on FDI of three countries i.e Pakistan, Bangladesh & India?
Research Objective We want to prepare Dependant Variable (FDI) and Independent Variables of three countries i.e Pakistan, Bangladesh & India.
Significant of Study In this study we have selected FDI as dependent variable, because FDI is important variable which is affected by independent variables (inflation rate, exchange rate, corporate tax rate, GDP, GDP Growth rate). In our study we find out the relationship between dependent and independent variables. Its mean how much strongly effect the independent variables to dependent variable. We hope the selected independent variables have strong effect on FDI in Pakistan, Bangladesh & India.
Hypotheses 1st Hypotheses H0 = There is no relationship between FDI and Inflation. H1 = There is a relationship between FDI and Inflation. 2nd Hypotheses H0 = There is no relationship between FDI and Exchange Rate. H1 = There is a relationship between FDI and Exchange Rate. 3rd Hypotheses H0 = There is no relationship between FDI and GDP. H1 = There is a relationship between FDI and GDP. 4th Hypotheses H0 = There is no relationship between FDI and GDP Growth Rate. H1 = There is a relationship between FDI and GDP Growth Rate. 5th Hypotheses H0 = There is no relationship between FDI and Corporate tax Rate. H1 = There is a relationship between FDI and Corporate tax Rate.
Research Model Y (FDI) = a+ b (GDP Current) +b (GDP Growth) +b (Exchange Rate) +b (Tax Rate)+ b (Inflation) Results Coefficients
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients t Sig. B Std. Error Beta 1 (Constant) -9775583799.577 6209552682.325
Y=a+ b GDP Current +b GDP Growth +b Exchange Rate +b Tax Rate+ b Inflation Where Y=FDI a= Constant b=Beta If GDP Current increases by one unit then FDI will increase by .20 units. If GDP Growth increases by one unit then FDI will increase by 926347149.731 units. If Exchange Rate increases by one unit then FDI will decrease by -9775583799.577 units. If Tax Rate increases by one unit then FDI will increase by 316444035.857 units. If Inflation increases by one unit then FDI will decrease by -227123832.563 units Hypothesis
Hypothesis described the relation between dependent and independent variable. P-value > 0.613>0.05 Accept Ho GDP current is not significant means GDP current not explaining the dependent variable FDI in detail.
P-value> 0.558>0.05 Accept Ho GDP Growth is not significant means GDP current not explaining the dependent variable FDI in detail. P-value> 0.628>0.05 Accept Ho Exchange Rate is not significant means GDP current not explaining the dependent variable FDI in detail. P-value> 0.433>0.05 Accept Ho Tax Rate is not significant means GDP current not explaining the dependent variable FDI in detail P-value> 0.404>0.05 Accept Ho Inflation is not significant means GDP current not explaining the dependent variable FDI in detail
Model Summary
Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate 1 .952 .907 .439 134385875.04279 a. Predictors: (Constant), Inflation Bangladesh, Tax Rate Bangladesh, GDP Growth Bangladesh, Exchange Rate Bangladesh, GDP Current Bangladesh R: This table indicates that there is strong positive correlation between Dependent variable FDI and independent variables Inflation, Tax Rate, GDP Growth, Exchange Rate, and GDP Current. Adjusted R-Square: Adjusted R-Square is used when the regression is multiple. Interpretation: 0.439 % variance in FDI is due to inflation, Exchange Rate, GDP (Current & Growth), & Tax Rate and remaining variance due to other factors.
India
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients T Sig. B Std. Error Beta 1 (Constant) -28569909214.986 85413548449.190
-.334 .795 GDP Current India .003 .009 .163 .362 .779 GDP Growth India 2540344758.615 742346825.228 .796 3.422 .181 Exchange Rate India 72229596.894 1107986830.121 .022 .065 .959 Tax Rate India 30733360.232 654860016.800 .017 .047 .970 Inflation India -1826824594.897 1153750620.723 -.674 -1.583 .359 a. Dependent Variable: FDI India Interpretation:
Y=a+ b GDP Current +b GDP Growth +b Exchange Rate +b Tax Rate+ b Inflation
If GDP Current increases by one unit then FDI will increase by .003 units. If GDP Growth increases by one unit then FDI will increase by 2540344758.615 units. If Exchange Rate increases by one unit then FDI will increase by 72229596.894units. If Tax Rate increases by one unit then FDI will increase by30733360.232 units. If Inflation increases by one unit then FDI will decrease by -1826824594.897 units.
Hypothesis
Hypothesis described the relation between dependent and independent variable. P-value > 0.779>0.05 Accept Ho GDP current is not significant means GDP current not explaining the dependent variable FDI in detail. P-value> 0.181>0.05 Accept Ho GDP Growth is not significant means GDP current not explaining the dependent variable FDI in detail. P-value> 0.959>0.05 Accept Ho Exchange Rate is not significant means GDP current not explaining the dependent variable FDI in detail. P-value> 0.970>0.05 Accept Ho Tax Rate is not significant means GDP current not explaining the dependent variable FDI in detail P-value> 0.359>0.05 Accept Ho Inflation is not significant means GDP current not explaining the dependent variable FDI in detail.
Model Summary
Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate 1 .974 .948 .687 4161481015.62931 a. Predictors: (Constant), Inflation India, Tax Rate India, GDP Growth India, Exchange Rate India, GDP Current India.
R: This table indicates that there is strong positive correlation between Dependent variable FDI and independent variables Inflation, Tax Rate, GDP Growth, Exchange Rate, and GDP Current. Adjusted R-Square: Adjusted R-Square is used when the regression is multiple. Interpretation: 0.687 % variance in FDI is due to inflation, Exchange Rate, GDP (Current & Growth), & Tax Rate and remaining variance due to other factors.
Pakistan
Coefficients
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients t Sig. B Std. Error Beta 1 (Constant) -47715071436.289 5588115674.096
Y=a+ b GDP Current +b GDP Growth +b Exchange Rate +b Tax Rate+ b Inflation
If GDP Current increases by one unit then FDI will decrease by -47715071436.289units. If GDP Growth increases by one unit then FDI will decrease by -47715071436.289units. If Exchange Rate increases by one unit then FDI will increase by 336459522.067units. If Tax Rate increases by one unit then FDI will increase by 607985729.366 units. If Inflation increases by one unit then FDI will increase by 385230398.896 units Hypothesis
P-value > 0.405>0.05 Accept Ho GDP current is not significant means GDP current not explaining the dependent variable FDI in detail. P-value> 0.989>0.05 Accept Ho GDP Growth is not significant means GDP current not explaining the dependent variable FDI in detail. P-value> 0.161>0.05 Accept Ho Exchange Rate is not significant means GDP current not explaining the dependent variable FDI in detail. P-value> 0.191>0.05 Accept Ho Tax Rate is not significant means GDP current not explaining the dependent variable FDI in detail
P-value> 0.152>0.05 Accept Ho Inflation is not significant means GDP current not explaining the dependent variable FDI in detai Model Summary
Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate 1 .997 .995 .970 304260823.06579 a. Predictors: (Constant), Inflation Pakistan, GDP Current Pakistan, Exchange Rate Pakistan, Tax Rate Pakistan, GDP Growth Pakistan
R: This table indicates that there is strong positive correlation between Dependent variable FDI and independent variables Inflation, Tax Rate, GDP Growth, Exchange Rate, and GDP Current. Adjusted R-Square: Adjusted R-Square is used when the regression is multiple. Interpretation: 0.970 % variance in FDI is due to inflation, Exchange Rate, GDP (Current & Growth), & Tax Rate and remaining variance due to other factors. Conclusion
The main objective of our study is to analyze the relationship between FDI and GDP Growth & Current, Exchange Rate, Tax Rate & Inflation in Pakistan, Bangladesh and India. However, to examine the impact of FDI on Independent Variables using multiple regression with time series data from 1980 to 2011, we got the ambiguous result. The above empirical exercise does not find any significant role for FDI in the five Independent variables of three countries Pakistan, Bangladesh & India. All the three countries needs more FDI to the priority sectors, so that countries get immediate yields from the investment.