Dr. G.

Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 1
Sampling Demystified:
Sample Size and Errors
Research Methods for Public
Administrators
Dr. Gail Johnson
Dr. G. Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 2
Samples: How Many?
When working with non-random samples,
size is not that important because
researchers know that they can not
generalize to the larger population
Face validity is sufficient
Dr. G. Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 3
Sample: How Many?
When working with random sample data,
size matters
Researchers want a big enough sample so
they can be reasonably confident that the
results are a fairly accurate reflection of the
population
Statisticians have figured this out.

Dr. G. Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 4
Random Sample Size
Sample size is a function of three things:
Size of the population of interest
Decision about how important is it to be accurate?
Confidence level
Decision about how important is to be precise?
Sampling error (also called margin of error) or
confidence interval
In general, accuracy and precision is improved by
increasing the sample size
Dr. G. Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 5
Sample Size
Based on probability theory and the concept
of normal distributions
Statisticians have figured this all out
I believe, I believe!!
We will focus on the concepts and
application

Dr. G. Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 6
Random Samples is Based on
Probabilities
If we selected 1,000 random samples, the results
for average height would theoretically form a bell-
shaped curve (normal curve)
This means that 95% of the samples would show
an average height that was plus or minus 2
standard deviations.
This statistical magic allows statisticians to
estimate the probability of getting results from a
random sample that are outside of that 95%

Dr. G. Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 7
Bell-Shaped Curve
(Normal Curve)

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Standard_deviation_diagram.svg, Jeremy Kemp,
on 2005-02-09

Dr. G. Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 8
Normal Curve Explained
This is called a normal distribution.
If we were to line up 1,000 people on the soccer field
according to their height, they would look like a bell.
At the center, is the average or mean. The highest
number of people would be of average height.
To the right side, would be the number of people who
were taller than the average height, and to the left
would be the people shorter than the average height.
Dr. G. Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 9
Normal Curve Explained
The properties of the normal distribution are that 68%
are within a set distance from the mean (one standard
deviation) and 95 percent are within two standard
deviations from the mean.
For our purposes here, we just need to takeaway the
point that statisticians have figured out how to estimate
how 95% of a given population is likely to be
distributed.
They can estimate the height of 95% of the people standing out
on the soccer field.
Dr. G. Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 10
Statistical Magic
This ability to estimate distributions allows
statisticians to provide researchers with a
level of confidence about results from a
random sample.
Dr. G. Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 11
What Does Confidence Mean?
How confident do you want to be that the
sample result is reasonably accurate?
The standard is a 95% confidence level:
This means that 19 out of 20 random samples
would have found similar results that we found
from this random sample
Or that we are 95% certain that the sample
results are a reasonably accurate estimate of the
population

Dr. G. Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 12
What Does Precision Mean?
Sampling Error in survey results is one way
to estimate precision:
The social science standard is plus and
minus 5%.
We obtained these survey results:
45% oppose building a dam and 55%
favor building a dam.
The margin of error is +/- 5%.

Dr. G. Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 13
Margin of Error
A way of expressing the sampling error in a
surveys results
The larger the margin of error, the less faith
one should have that the poll's reported
results are close to the "true" figures; that is,
the figures for the whole population
Dr. G. Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 14
Margin of Error
If the margin of error overlaps, it means the
results are too close to call for the
population as whole
Think of election polls: if the survey results say
52% favor and 48% favor Y, with a +/-5%
margin of error, the race is too close to call. It
is just as probably that 48% favor X and 52%
favor Y

Dr. G. Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 15

Confidence Interval:
Another Way to Estimate Precision.

It is used when working with real numbers (ie.
Interval or ratio level data such as age or salary).
The average salary of the respondents is $20,000,
and the confidence interval is $18,000--$22,000.
Conclusion: we are 95% confident that the true
average salary of the population is between
$18,000 and $22,000.
Put another way, we are 95% confident that if had
surveyed everyone, the average salary would be
between $18,000 and $22,000.



Dr. G. Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 16
Dr. G. Johnson 16
Population and Sample Size
Assuming we wanted to be 95% confident with a margin of
error of plus/minus 5%:
Population size Sample size
10 10
50 44
100 80
200 132
500 217
1,000 278
3,000 341
100,000+ 385

Source: Krejcie and Morgan, 1970. Determining Sample Size for Research Activities, Educational and Psychological
Measurement 30: 607-610

Dr. G. Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 17
Random Sample Sizes
Note: sample sizes in the tables are
proportionately larger when the population size is
small.
If the population is 100, then the sample size
would be 80.
If the population is 1,000, the sample size
would be 278.
This sample sizes in this table were based on the
social science standard of 95% confidence level,
with +/- 5% sampling error.


Dr. G. Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 18
Sample Size
In general, sample accuracy and precision is
improved by increasing the sample size.
Assuming a large population of 100,000 or more,
that sample size would be 385 if we wanted to be
95% certain with a +/-5% margin of error.
The sample size would be 1,067 if we wanted to
be 95% certain and only +/-3% margin of error.



Dr. G. Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 19
Sample Sizes: Relationship between
Precision and Confidence Level
Precision Confidence Level
99% 95% 90%
1% 16,576 9,604 6,765
2% 4,144 2,301 1,691
3% 1,848 1,067 752
5% 883 385 271

These are for populations over 100,000
Dr. G. Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 20
Another View of Sample Error
20
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error
Dr. G. Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 21
Random Samples Are Imperfect
Random samples always have a probability of
error.
Statisticians have figured out how to estimate that
probability.
Random sample data and inferential statistics go
together
Statistics: estimates for the probability that the sample
results are representative of the population as a whole.
We will discuss more when we get to Inferential
Statistics
Dr. G. Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 22
Sample Results Can Also Have
Non-sampling Errors
Even when people are randomly selected,
not all will participate. This is called a
volunteer sample and may be different in
some ways that matter but cant be known
Ideally, there is at least a 60% response rate to
surveys, for example.
Dr. G. Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 23
Sample Results Can Also Have
Non-sampling Errors
Questions might have been written poorly.
Surveys did not go to the people best able to
answer the questions
Eg. The survey was intended to be completed
by executive directors but was completed by
their assistants.
Dr. G. Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 24
Handing Non-sampling Errors
Statistician cannot estimate the likely impacts of
non-sampling errors.
Researchers will want to see if the demographics
of the respondents are similar to the population as
a whole.
Researchers might contact a small sample of the
non-responders to see if their views are similar to
what was reported by the respondents.
Researchers might look at other similar studies to
see if their results are similar.
Dr. G. Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 25
Handing Non-sampling Errors
Researchers should err on the side of caution when
drawing firm conclusions based on sample data.
Limitations of sampling and non-sampling
errors must be noted and conclusions must stay
within those limitations.
Use weasel words: it appears, the data
suggests, the results are in the direction of
our hypothesis, while not conclusive, it is
likely
Avoid definitive words and premature
certainty
Dr. G. Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 26
My Best Advice
Use the entire population whenever possible
If it is necessary to use a random sample,
sample large
The calculated sample sizes should be seen as
minimums
There is nothing more frustrating than getting
to the end of a study to discover that the sample
size was too small to give statistically valid
results
Dr. G. Johnson,
www.ResearchDemsytified.org 27
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