1

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard

Analysis (PSHA) Part II
Lecture-17
Temporal uncertainty
Poisson process- describes number of occurrences of an event
during a given time interval or spatial region.
1. The number of occurrences in one time interval are
independent of the number that occur in any other time
interval.
2. Probability of occurrence in a very short time interval is
proportional to length of interval.
3. Probability of more than one occurrence in a very short
time interval is negligible.


2
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Temporal uncertainty
Poisson process


where n is the number of occurrences and is the average
number of occurrences in the time interval of interest.

3
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
!
n] P[N
n
e
n

= =
Temporal uncertainty
Poisson process
Letting = t





=1- P[N=0]
=1- e
-t


4
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
( )
] [ ..... ] 3 [ ] 2 [ ] 1 [ ] 0 [
!
n] P[N
= + = + = + = = >
= =

N P N P N P N P N P
Then
n
e t
t
n

Temporal uncertainty
Poisson process
P = 1 e
-t
Consider a event that occurs, on average, every 1,000 yrs.
What is the probability it will occur at least once in a 100yr
period?

=1/1000 = 0.001
P = 1-exp[-(0.001)(100)] = 0.0952
5
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Temporal uncertainty
What is the probability it will occur at least once in a 1,000 yr
period?

P = 1 exp[-(0.001)(1000)] = 0.632

Solving for ,


6
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
t
P) ln(
=
1

7
Temporal uncertainty
Then, the annual rate of exceedance for an event with a 10%
probability of exceedance in 50 yrs is




The corresponding return period is T
R
= 1/ = 475 yrs.
For 2% in 50 yrs, = 0.000404/yr T
R
= 2475 yrs.
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
0021 . 0
50
) 1 . 0 1 ln(
=

=
8
Summary of uncertainties

Location f
R
(r)

Size f
M
(m)

Effects P[Y>Y* l M=M*, R=R*]

Timing P=1-e
-t
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Source-site distance pdf
Magnitude pdf
Attenuation
relationship
including standard
error
Poisson model
Combining uncertainties probability computations

P[A] = P[AB
1
] + P[A B
2
] +.+ P[A B
N
]

P[A] = P[A|B
1
]P[B
1
] + P[A|B
2
] P[B
2
]

+.+ P[A|B
N
] P[B
N
]

9
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
BB
B
1
B
2
B
3
B
4
B
5
A
Total Probability
Theorem
Combining uncertainties probability computations
Applying total probability theorem,

P[Y > y*] = P[Y > y*| X] P[X] = P [Y >y*|X] f
x
(X)dx
where X is a vector of parameters.

We assume that M and R are the most important parameters
and that they are independent. Then,

P[Y > y*] = P [Y >y*|m, r] f
M
(m)f
R
(r)dmdr


10
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Combining uncertainties-probability computations
P[Y > y*] = P [Y >y*|m, r] f
M
(m)f
R
(r)dmdr

Above equation gives the probability that y* will be
exceeded if an earthquake occurs. Can convert probability to
annual rate of exceedance by multiplying probability by
annual rate of occurrence of earthquakes.


y*
=v P [Y >y*|m, r] f
M
(m)f
R
(r)dmdr
where v = exp[- m
0
]



11
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
12
Combining uncertainties-probability computations

If the site of interest is subjected to shaking from more than
one site (say Ns sites), then




For realistic cases, pdfs for M and Rare too complicated to
integrate analytically. Therefore, we do it numerically.
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
(r)dmdr (m)f f r] m, | y* [Y P v
Ri Mi
Ns
1 i
i
y
*
> =
}}

13
Combining uncertainties-probability computations

Dividing the range of possible magnitudes and distances into
N
M
and N
R
increments, respectively


This expression can be written, equivalently as



Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
r m ) (r )f (m f ] r , m | y* [Y P v
k Ri j Mi k j
Ns
1 i
i
N
1 j
N
1 k
y
M R
*
A A > =
}}

= = =

] r ]P[R m P[M ] r , m | y* [Y P v
k j k j
Ns
1 i
i
N
1 j
N
1 k
y
M R
*
= = > =
}}

= = =

Combining uncertainties-probability computations

What does it mean?

14
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
] r ]P[R m P[M ] r , m | y* [Y P v
k j k j
Ns
1 i
i
N
1 j
N
1 k
y
M R
*
= = > =
}}

= = =

All possible distances are

considered- contribution
of each is weighted by its
probability of occurrence
All sites are
considered
All possible effects are
considered- each weighted
by its conditional
probability of occurrence
All possible magnitudes are
considered- contribution of
each is weighted by its
probability of occurrence
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

Combining uncertainties-probability computations
Compute conditional probability for each element on grid
Enter in matrix (spreadsheet cell)
15
ln Y
ln Y
log R r
1
r
2
r
3
r
N
Y = Y*

P[Y>Y*| M=m2, R=r
1
]

P[Y>Y*| M=m2, R=r
2
]

P[Y>Y*| M=m2, R=r
3
]

Combining uncertainties-
probability computations
Seismic hazard curve shows the
mean annual rate of exceedance
of a particular ground motion
parameter. A seismic hazard
curve is the ultimate result of a
PSHA.
16
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

l
o
g

a
m
a
x


l
o
g

T
R


a
max

Using seismic hazard curves
Combining uncertainties-
probability computations
Contribution of sources
Can break values down into
contributions from each source.
Plot seismic hazard curves for
each source and total seismic
hazard curve (equal to sum of
source curves)
Curves may not be parallel, may
cross
Shows which source(s) most
important.




17
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
l
o
g

a
m
a
x


l
o
g

T
R


a
max

2


Total

3

1
Using seismic hazard curves
Combining uncertainties-
probability computations
Contribution of sources
Can develop seismic hazard
curves for different ground
motion parameters
Peak acceleration
Special accelerations
Other
Choose desired value
Read corresponding parameter
values from seismic hazard curves

18
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
l
o
g

a
m
a
x


l
o
g

T
R


a
max,
S
a

Total

Using seismic hazard curves Contribution of sources
Can develop seismic hazard
curves for different ground
motion parameters
Peak acceleration
Special accelerations
Other
Choose desired value
Read corresponding parameter
values from seismic hazard curves

19
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
l
o
g

a
m
a
x


l
o
g

T
R


a
max,
S
a

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Disaggregation (De-aggregation)
Common question:
What magnitude & distance does that a
max
value correspond to?











5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5
25km 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03

0.03 0.02

0.01

0.01

50km

0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04

0.03 0.02

75km

0.03 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.06
0.05 0.02

100km

0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.05
0.05 0.02
125km

0.02 0.02 0.03

0.04 0.05 0.03
0.02 0.01

150km 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.02
0.01

0.00
175km 0.00 0.00 0.01

0.01

0.03 0.01

0.01 0.00

200km 0.00 0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.00

Total hazard
includes
contributions from
all combinations of
M & R
20
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Disaggregation (De-aggregation)
Common question
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
7.0
7.5 8.0 8.5
25km 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02
0.01 0.01
50km 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04
0.03 0.02
75km
0.03 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.06
0.05 0.02
100km 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.05
0.05 0.02
125km 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.03
0.02 0.01
150km 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.02
0.01 0.00
175km 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01
0.01 0.00
200km 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00
0.00 0.00
What magnitude & distance does that amax value
correspond to?
Total hazard includes
contributions from all
combinations of M & R.
Break hazard down into
contributions to see
where hazard is coming
from.
M=7.0 at R=75km
21
Logic tree methods
Not all uncertainty can be described by probability distributions

Most appropriate model may not be clear
Attenuation relationship
Magnitude distribution
etc
Experts may disagree on model parameters
Fault segmentation
Maximum magnitude
etc
22
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Logic tree methods
m
23
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Attenuation
Model
Magnitude
Distribution
M
max
BJF
A&S
G-R
Char
G-R
Char
(0.5)
(0.7)
(0.5)
(0.7)
(0.3)
(0.3)
7.0 (0.2)
7.5 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
7.5 (0.2)
7.5 (0.2)
7.5 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.2 (0.6)
7.2 (0.6)
7.2 (0.6)
Logic tree methods
m
24
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Attenuation
Model
Magnitude
Distribution
M
max
BJF
A&S
G-R
Char
G-R
Char
(0.5)
(0.7)
(0.5)
(0.7)
(0.3)
(0.3)
7.0 (0.2)
7.5 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
7.5 (0.2)
7.5 (0.2)
7.5 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.2 (0.6)
7.2 (0.6)
7.2 (0.6)
Sum of weighing factors
coming out of each
node must equal 1.0
Logic tree methods
m
25
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Attenuation
Model
Magnitude
Distribution
M
max
BJF
A&S
G-R
Char
G-R
Char
(0.5)
(0.7)
(0.5)
(0.7)
(0.3)
(0.3)
7.0 (0.2)
7.5 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
7.5 (0.2)
7.5 (0.2)
7.5 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.2 (0.6)
7.2 (0.6)
7.2 (0.6)
0.5x0.7x0.2 = 0.07
Logic tree methods
m
26
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Attenuation
Model
Magnitude
Distribution
M
max
BJF
A&S
G-R
Char
G-R
Char
(0.5)
(0.7)
(0.5)
(0.7)
(0.3)
(0.3)
7.0 (0.2)
7.5 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
7.5 (0.2)
7.5 (0.2)
7.5 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.2 (0.6)
7.2 (0.6)
7.2 (0.6)
0.5x0.7x0.2 = 0.07
Logic tree methods
m
27
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Attenuation
Model
Magnitude
Distribution
M
max
BJF
A&S
G-R
Char
G-R
Char
(0.5)
(0.7)
(0.5)
(0.7)
(0.3)
(0.3)
7.0 (0.2)
7.5 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
7.5 (0.2)
7.5 (0.2)
7.5 (0.2)
7.2 (0.6)
7.2 (0.6)
7.2 (0.6)
7.2 (0.6)
Final value of Y is
obtained as weighted
average of all values
given by terminal
branches of logic tree.
0.07
0.07
0.03
0.21
0.09
0.03
0.09
0.07
0.07
0.21
0.03
0.03
W



Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Logic tree methods

Recent PSHA logic tree included:

Crustal areal source zones
7 source zones
2 attenuation relationships
3 maximum magnitudes
2 recurrence models
3 source depths
252 terminal branches


Total PSHA required analysis of 612 combinations
28
29
Reiter, L. (1990) Earthquake Hazard Analysis: Issues and insights,
Columbia university press.
Kramer (1996) Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering, Prentice Hall.
Anderson, J.G. and J.N. Brune (1999). Probabilistic hazard analysis without the
ergodic assumption, Seism. Res. Lett. 70, 19-23.
Cornell, C.A. (1968). Engineering seismic risk analysis, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 58,
1583-1606.
http://geo.cv.nctu.edu.tw/prob/download/SeismicHazardAnalysis.pdf
(Accessed on 30 March 2012)
http://www.nibs.org/client/.../Topic05a-SeismicHazardAnalysisNotes.pdf
(Accessed on 30 March 2012)
Recommended Reading